SECURITY COUNCIL CHAIRMAN TAZHIN, DAS FEIGENBAUM

UNCLAS SECTION 01 OF 02 ALMATY 003041 SIPDIS SENSITIVE SIPDIS DEPT FOR SCA/CEN - MUDGE, DEHART E.O. 12958: N/A TAGS: PGOV PHUM PREL KDEM KZ SUBJECT: SECURITY COUNCIL CHAIRMAN TAZHIN, DAS FEIGENBAUM DISCUSS AFGHANISTAN, CASPIAN SECURITY, AND DEMOCRACY ALMATY 00003041 001.2 OF 002 ¶1. (SBU) Summary: During an August 25 meeting in Astana, the Chairman of Kazakhstan's Security Council, Marat Tazhin, told SCA Deputy Assistant Secretary Evan Feigenbaum that the GOK was assembling an inter-agency "Survey Team" to study possible Kazakhstani participation in an Afghan Provincial Reconstruction Team (PRT). Tazhin estimated the team might be ready "by September or October." Tazhin praised bilateral cooperation on Caspian security while suggesting that, with increased trans- Caspian oil shipments, security challenges in the Caspian will grow. Tazhin noted Kazakhstan's significant economic promise as a transit country for continental trade, suggesting that, in time, government revenues from transit trade could exceed those from the oil sector. Tazhin argued that democracy is developing in Kazakhstan, driven by the "fragmentation" of the economic elite and their political articulation of economic interests. End Summary. GOK Support in Afghanistan ... -------------- ¶2. (SBU) Accompanied by the DCM, DAS Feigenbaum held a wide-ranging meeting with Security Council chairman Tazhin, who was accompanied by vice minister of Defense, General Bulat Sembinov. Tazhin summarized past GOK support for the anti-terrorist coalition in Afghanistan. Since 2001, he said, Kazakhstan had allowed 2700 coalition overflights and 40 emergency landings on Kazakhstani soil. Further, the Kazakhstani special services had intensified information sharing with their U.S. counterparts, and had received "high marks" for the quality and intensity of their cooperation. The GOK had no objections to this type of cooperation, Tazhin explained, because Afghanistan's security problems directly affected Central Asia. ... and a "Survey Team" to Come -------------- ¶3. (SBU) In this context, Tazhin continued, the GOK was putting together an inter-agency Survey Team. Once assembled, likely "by September or October," the team would "work fast" to make a "strategic" decision about Kazakhstani participation in a PRT. The primary obstacle, Tazhin observed, was the "problem of security" in the provinces. Caspian Security: Serious Work Needs to be Done -------------- -- ¶4. (SBU) Asked for his perspective on security cooperation in the Caspian Sea, Tazhin cited the recent GOK signing of an Inter-governmental Agreement governing entry of Kazakhstani oil into the Baku-Tbilisi-Ceyhan (BTC) pipeline. The fact that in the near future large volumes of Kazakhstani oil would be crossing the Caspian on tankers - combined with the littoral states' clear trend toward "militarizing" the sea - meant Caspian security was an issue of increasing importance. We have serious work to do, Tazhin concluded, both in protecting Kazakhstan's coasts and in preventing a possible terrorist attack on oil infrastructure. ¶5. (SBU) Tazhin and Sembinov reviewed several US-GOK cooperative projects aimed at enhancing Caspian security. Tazhin suggested the U.S. sell a big (1000 ton displacement) military vessel to Kazakhstan. Such an acquisition, he said, would be a valuable enhancement to Caspian security. (Comment: Neither the DAO nor the OMC are aware of such interest. Embassy will enquire. End Comment). Reflecting on Neighbors, Democracy in Central Asia ... -------------- -------------- ¶6. (SBU) Reflecting on neighboring countries, Tazhin underscored that Kazakhstan had much to gain from economic integration with its neighbors. While in early years Kazakhstan might have been in competition with other Central Asian states, the country's economic success had put it in a position to benefit from its neighbors' development. Regional economic development would also help mitigate three growing Kazakhstani concerns: illegal migration, nacro-trafficking (and a related increase in domestic drug addition),and the threat that existing (secular) governments could be overtaken by (Islamic) theocracies. The USG might not see the latter risk in Uzbekistan as it pushed for greater Uzbek democratization, ALMATY 00003041 002.2 OF 002 Tazhin warned, "but we clearly see the dangers from here." Moreover, leaders sometimes changed course: some in the West had backed Egypt's Nasser, only to be disappointed. Likewise with other leaders, who had proved to be capricious. ... and on Kazakhstan ... -------------- ¶7. (SBU) In response, DAS Feigenbaum noted a longstanding conceptual debate about the relationship between stability and democracy. The U.S. experience, he said, suggested that the often-heard argument that states faced a stark choice between polar opposites of "democracy" and "stability" often proved false. Indeed, the leaders Tazhin had cited changed their views and policies. But from a U.S. perspective, the key is to build lasting institutions. Even if leaders prove capricious, democratic institutions with solid foundations endure. Tazhin agreed, then defended Kazakhstan's own path of democratic development, arguing that, once economic institutions are built, only then can a nation create a "liberal" political infrastructure. ¶8. (SBU) Kazakhstan will not develop into a "classical liberal democracy" any time in the next decade, Tazhin predicted, but progress was being made, driven by the "fragmentation of the economic elite" into ten or fifteen groupings. In pursuing the political articulation of their own economic interests, these groups were driving lasting political change. "We are making progress," Tazhin vowed, adding that, because the change was occurring in the society itself, and "not as a result of the subjective will of one person or another," the outcome would be lasting. Feigenbaum noted the distinction between Tazhin's emphasis on social trends and the U.S. emphasis on political institutions. Kazakhstan's Potential as a Transit Country -------------- ¶9. (SBU) Feigenbaum discussed U.S. policy in Central Asia, more broadly. He noted the opportunities for Kazakhstan to expand its traditional political and economic focus to the north and west by becoming truly "omni-directional," including by tapping into the world's most dynamic economies to the east and south. Tazhin noted great potential for Kazakhstan as a transit country. China, he said, processes 2.5 billion tons of cargo a year through its ports and railroads. If Kazakhstan captured even 1% of that trade, he reasoned - capitalizing on the fact that Chinese-Europe trade via Kazakhstan was 12-14 days faster than by sea - it would represent 25 million tons a year. The potential for growth in Asia-Europe continental transit trade was huge, he concluded, suggesting that in "seventeen years" GOK revenues from transit trade could equal revenues from the oil sector. ORDWAY