KAZAKHSTAN: PRO-PRESIDENTIAL PARTIES MERGE

UNCLAS SECTION 01 OF 03 ALMATY 002453

SIPDIS

DEPARTMENT FOR SCA/CEN (J. MUDGE),DRL/PHD (C. KUCHTA-
HELBLING)

SIPDIS

SENSITIVE

E.O. 12958: N/A
TAGS: PHUM PGOV KZ
SUBJECT: KAZAKHSTAN: PRO-PRESIDENTIAL PARTIES MERGE

REF: ALMATY 2074

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1. (U) Summary: On July 4, the two main pro-presidential
parties, Asar and Otan, merged. President Nazarbayev, who
will be the official head of this mega-party, praised the
merger and laid out the new party's leadership structure and
strategic priorities. Dariga Nazarbayeva, the president's
daughter and former head of Asar, characterized the merger
as the best way to move the country forward. She stressed
that Asar's enthusiasm for innovative ideas and political
approaches would be incorporated into the new Otan Party.
End summary.

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Asar and Otan Unite
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2. (U) On July 4, President Nazarbayev's Otan party held its
9th Congress and voted to merge with Dariga Nazerbayeva's
pro-presidential party Asar. About 500 people attended,
including Otan activists, leaders of political
organizations, government officials, and representatives of
NGOs and the media. The united party will keep the name
Otan; President Nazarbayev remains the party head, and
Bakhytzhan Zhumagulov remains the acting Otan chairman.
Dariga Nazarbayeva and Alexander Pavlov were named deputy
chairmen.

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President Praises the Merger
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3. (U) Nazarbayev congratulated the parties, noting that the
merger was happening at an important stage in the country's
political development. Specifically, he highlighted the
work ahead in creating effective checks and balances among
the three branches of power, in expanding the
responsibilities and authorities of the parliament, and in
strengthening the role of political parties. The new united
party, he suggested, would play a crucial role in each of
these areas.


4. (U) Nazarbayev stated that the merger would strengthen
the party, pointing out that membership rolls now exceeded
700,000. He encouraged former Asar members to bring into
the united party their progressive political approach and
innovative spirit. The new party, he opined, should combine
Otan's reliability with Asar's energy. To Nazarbayev, the
merger proved not only the ideological similarity of the two
parties, but also that Asar's and Otan's leaders placed the
national interest above personal ambition.

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A New Party System
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5. (U) Voicing his desire to set up a new party system,
Nazarbayev suggested that while political variety is
important, only large, powerful parties could be truly
effective. Along these lines, he stressed the need for a
stable, modern party system in which all parties are driven
by one common national idea. He also encouraged the new
Otan Party to continue unification talks with other pro-
presidential parties.


6. (U) Regarding parliamentary reform, Nazarbayev proposed
that two issues be addressed soon: a) whether the number of
parliamentarians should be increased; and b) whether
parliamentarians should be elected on a majoritarian system
or a proportional system (which Nazarbayev believes confuses
voters and results in unknown individuals, most often "money
bags," getting into parliament).


7. (U) Regarding parliamentary checks on executive power,
Nazarbayev warned that the country needed a strong president
and a vertical power structure within the executive branch.
He specifically raised the issues of who would nominate the
prime minister, who would control the formation of the
cabinet, and to what degree the parliament would have
control over the executive branch. Nazarbayev stated that
the answers to these questions would determine the future of
the country and its people.


8. (U) Nazarbayev listed the new Otan Party's objectives as
continuity, effective internal party structure, modern
management, strict party discipline, election management and

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reform, the development of the "Kazakhstan 2030" concept,
and the development and implementation of a strategy for
joining the 50 most competitive countries.

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Zhumagulov and Nazarbayeva Give Their Views on the Merger
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9. (U) Otan's acting chairman Bakhytzhan Zhumagulov and Asar
leader Dariga Nazarbayeva also spoke. Zhumagulov noted that
since their joint efforts during last year's presidential
elections, the two parties' positions had been getting
closer. He admitted that there were still some
disagreements and sharp debates. But he was confident that
the parties would focus on issues on which they agreed
because of their mutual desire to serve the country's higher
interests.


10. (U) Nazarbayeva used her remarks to explain the reasons
behind the merger. She characterized the bulk of pro-
presidential forces as moderate conservatives that tended to
trust existing patterns of power and quickly forgave any
government wrong-doing. She insisted that with such a
mentality, nothing would change. She made clear her
distrust of radical changes, but emphasized that government
reform was necessary to keep the country moving forward.
According to Nazarbayeva, that is why Asar, with its
vigorous energy, constructive criticism of the current
establishment, and permanent search for innovative
solutions, needed to join Otan.


11. (SBU) Dariga Nazarbayeva used a series of interviews
following the merger to appeal to Asar members for their
understanding and support for her decision. (Comment: This
is not surprising, considering the decision to unite with
Otan was made only the day before the Congress, and
seemingly without consensus among Asar members. End
comment.) Nazarbayeva said the central reason for the union
was the similarity of the two parties' political and
ideological platforms. Both were parties of moderate
conservatives opposed to radical changes. She was careful
to downplay the idea of any return to a monolithic party
system; she highlighted Asar's traditions of liberalism and
local self-government in an attempt to draw a clear
distinction between the united Otan party and the former
Communist Party of Soviet times. She also hinted at the
differences between the newly-united parties. Borrowing a
line from Pushkin, she equated the work ahead with "making a
horse and a delicate deer pull one carriage."


12. (U) Nazarbayeva admitted that Asar's disappearance from
the political landscape was problematic, but said that it
was the cost of compromise. She stressed that while Asar
was no longer an independent entity, its political work
would continue. She reasoned that a party's independence
was a good thing only if that party had the tools to
implement its ideas.

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Other Party Leaders Comment
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13. (U) The leaders of most of the other major political
parties spoke out in favor of the merger. Azat Peruashev of
the Civic Party opined that it would strengthen the
country's political and party system, and highlighted
Nazarbayev's call to increase the role of political parties
in forming government agencies. Patriots Party leader Gani
Kasymov discreetly announced after the Otan Congress that
his party would change course and was in consultations
regarding merger options. Arseny Dusenov of Ak Zhol opined
that party mergers are a natural part of the political
process. He added, however, that the new party needed to
maintain its independence from the presidential
administration.


14. (U) Bulat Abilov of True Ak Zhol stated that all pro-
presidential parties should unite; the president should be
supported by one party under his control. Abilov said it
was clear that the forces opposing Nazarbayeva and her
husband, Rakhat Aliyev, had won. He felt the merger was
best described as "a forced marriage" and predicted that
confrontation would become more acute, though more
disguised. Abilov suggested that Kazakhstan's political
elite was planning for the post-Nazarbayev era, and was
apparently not interested in sharing power with the

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president's daughter. The next step, he predicted, would be
to try to force Nazarbayeva out of the country.

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Comment
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15. (SBU) Comment: Many analysts see the two parties'
unification as a hostile takeover of Asar by Otan,
effectively marking the end of Nazarbayeva's independent
political activities. According to such theorists, the
merger was the result of serious discord between the
president and his daughter. Other analysts deny the
possibility of any such rift in the presidential family, and
see the merger as the first in a series of maneuvers
designed to usher Nazarbayev's chosen successor into power.
In light of the simultaneous assault on Nazarbayeva and
Aliyev's media holdings (reftel),the first scenario appears
more likely. End comment.

ORDWAY