KAZAKHSTAN: COUNTERING ATTEMPTS TO USE THE

C O N F I D E N T I A L ALMATY 001722 SIPDIS SIPDIS DEPT FOR SCA/CEN (J. MUDGE) E.O. 12958: DECL: 05/15/2016 TAGS: PREL MARR KZ SUBJECT: KAZAKHSTAN: COUNTERING ATTEMPTS TO USE THE SHANGHAI COOPERATION ORGANIZATION TO PUSH U.S. AND COALITION MEMBERS OUT OF CENTRAL ASIA REF: STATE 72746 Classified By: POEC chief Deborah Mennuti, reasons 1.4 (B) and (D). ¶1. (C) On May 12, Astana PO delivered reftel points to Serzhan Abdykarimov, Office Director of the North America's Division at the Ministry of Foreign Affairs. Abdykarimov expected that Kazakhstan would object to any anti-U.S. or anti-Western language in negotiations for this year's Shanghai Cooperation Organization (SCO) declaration. However, Abdykarimov cautioned that Kazakhstan's view might not prevail. ¶2. (C) Russia and Uzbekistan, Abdykarimov continued, will almost certainly press for a statement similar to last year's SCO call for a deadline for the departure of "foreign forces" from Central Asia. China, he said, was harder to read in the wake of President Hu Jintao's April visit to Washington. Noting the ongoing negotiations over Manas airbase and Kyrgyz President Bakiyev's recent trip to Moscow, Abdykarimov assessed Bishkek as an unpredictable player at the SCO table. Nevertheless, Abdykarimov maintained that Kazakhstan would firmly oppose anti-U.S. sentiments in the SCO forum. ¶3. (C) Comment: Abdykarimov's explanation of what is likely to take place behind the scenes at the June SCO summit is not merely a question of Kazakhstan's being out-voted by other SCO members on the subject of Coalition forces in Central Asia. While Kazakhstan will likely make some attempt to soften any anti-U.S. rhetoric or statements, Astana's cordial relations with Moscow and Beijing make it unlikely that Kazakhstan will break openly with its neighbors Russia and China over this issue. End comment. ORDWAY