CONSTITUTIONAL CHANGE IN THE AIR

C O N F I D E N T I A L ALGIERS 000916 SIPDIS SIPDIS E.O. 12958: DECL: 05/20/2016 TAGS: PGOV KDEM AG SUBJECT: CONSTITUTIONAL CHANGE IN THE AIR REF: ALGIERS 694 Classified By: Ambassador Richard W. Erdman, for reasons 1.4 (b) and (d) SUMMARY AND COMMENT -------------- ¶1. (C) Efforts for revising the 1996 Algerian Constitution, are now are now well-advanced, with a series of concrete proposals/options that have been put forward for consideration to the highest levels. Any revision supported by the President will ultimately require a popular referendum or a favorable vote by both the National Assembly and Senate. This process is unfolding amid increased political jockeying for the 2007 legislative and municipal elections, sharpening tensions within the three-party presidential coalition, persistent signs of a cabinet reshuffle in the offing, and continuing uncertainty over the real state of President Bouteflika's health. The principal constitutional proposals under discussion include: 1) eliminating or downgrading the position of prime minister (head of government) to reflect the de facto reality that the President is both head of state and head of government; 2) establishing a Vice Presidency to ensure a smooth transition; 3) upgrading the powers of the Council of the Nation (Senate) to ensure it is a more effective counterweight to the Assembly; and 4) changing the presidential term of office, either by permitting a third 5-year mandate or retaining the current two-term limit while increasing the mandate from five to seven years. ¶2. (C) Minister of State Belkhadem, a conservative Muslim nationalist who heads the majority FLN Party (199 seats in the Assembly) and who publicly called this week for PM Ouyahia to be replaced, has been the most outspoken voice for constitutional reform, a more purely presidential system, a third presidential mandate, and the right of the majority party to leadership of the government. The moderate Islamic MSP (Movement for Society and Peace),with 38 seats and an eye on competition from the conservative wing of the FLN, has also supported constitutional revision and joined the attack on Ouyahia, his erstwhile presidential coalition partner who heads the RND (National Democratic Rally -- 50 seats). Both the FLN and MSP have also called for the naming of a technocrat as Prime Minister in order to ensure strict impartiality in the 2007 elections. ¶3. (C) The military, which remains a key if not always visible part of the political equation here, is said to be strongly in favor of creating a Vice Presidency and to be grooming Ouyahia for the position in order to ensure a smooth transition, whether or not Bouteflika is able to complete his current term. How this fits into the unfolding scenario, in which Ouyahia, the longest serving prime minister in Algeria's recent history, is eased out of office, remains to be sorted out. What is clear is that constitutional revision is moving forward, that the process will be increasingly intertwined with pre-election maneuvering, and that the order of political events, at least as of now, is likely to be a cabinet reshuffle in the near future, constitutional revision in coming months, parliamentary elections in spring 2007, and local elections in fall 2007. (End Summary and Comment.) SOMETHING OLD, SOMETHING NEW -------------- ¶4. (C) Since 1999, President Bouteflika has spoken of the need for constitutional reforms, such as a stronger and more democratic Senate akin to that of France or the United States. (Members of the current Algerian Senate neither propose nor amend laws; they effectively do not legislate.) We suspect the reason the President would want a stronger Senate is to counterbalance the Assembly more effectively. This is important because the Assembly will likely have a more Islamist complexion after 2007. Thus, a strengthened Senate, which is one-third appointed by the President, will have an even more important braking and balancing role, and increase the President's ability to control the situation. ¶5. (C) Another frequently touted proposal, although not by Bouteflika himself, has been amending the constitution to allow Bouteflika to seek a third five-year term in office. Over the years, many have argued for the need to move toward a more purely presidential system, thus avoiding the kind of situation that arose when former Prime Minister Benflis became a competing power center and president rival in 2003. Under current thinking, this would be addressed by formally making the President's both head of state and head of government (the defacto situation now),downgrading or eliminating the post of Prime Minister, and creating instead the position of Vice President. Others have looked to redefine the power and prerogatives of the Prime Minister. Under the current constitution, for example, the Prime Minister need not be a sitting member of Parliament. A reform requiring such a change would conceivably change the dynamics of parliamentary representation, allowing the majority party to exert more influence on the selection and reducing the President's room for maneuver. (For this reason, we doubt Bouteflika would support such a move.) THIRD TERM FOR BOUTEFLIKA? -------------- ¶6. (C) Since last autumn, FLN leader Abdelaziz Belkhadem has called for a constitutional reform that would allow Bouteflika, who regards himself as "above political parties," to present his candidacy for a third term. Our contacts tell us Belkhadem understands that the proposal is not particularly popular with the broader public due to questions about Bouteflika's health. They explain, however, that rallying around Bouteflika -- and a third term for him -- goes over well with the disparate FLN membership, from conservative Islamists to Western-oriented bourgeoisie, and serves to unite FLN members in a way that nothing else can. Talk of a third term for the President also reassures the party faithful (and the public in general) that Bouteflika is, in fact, in good health. A variation of approving mandate would be keeping the two-mandate limit while extending an individual term from five to seven years. Under this French-style system, a president could thus serve 14 years rather than 15 with three terms. At the end of the day, revising the presidential term to allow Bouteflika more time in office may be moot because few people think he will be physically able to govern beyond the end of his current mandate, if indeed he is able to complete his current term of office. CHANGE IN SELECTION OF PRIME MINISTER NEEDED IN ADVANCE OF 2007 ELECTIONS -------------- ¶7. (C) The politically ambitious Belkhadem has recently claimed he does not want to be Prime Minister. However, he wants to position himself for the presidency, resents Ouyahia's current hold on the prime ministership since the FLN has the majority of Assembly seats, and wants to push Ouyahia out of a position that might give him and his RND party an advantage in the 2007 elections. In this regard, FLN and MSP have called for a technocrat to lead the government in order to ensure the neutrality of the 2007 voting process. Minister of Water Resources Abdelmalek Sellal and Minister of Finance Khelil are the most frequently mentioned technocratic candidates for the post. Belkhadem's push for constitutional revision and giving the majority party the top leadership within government under the president would seem to be part of this strategy. In this regard, Belkhadem's strategy also suggest a high level of confidence that the FLN will emerge as the dominant party in the 2007 elections. ERDMAN