SENATE PRESIDENCY THE PRIZE OF UPCOMING ELECTIONS

C O N F I D E N T I A L ALGIERS 002067 SIPDIS SIPDIS E.O. 12958: DECL: 12/03/2016 TAGS: PGOV KDEM AG SUBJECT: SENATE PRESIDENCY THE PRIZE OF UPCOMING ELECTIONS Classified By: Ambassador Robert S. Ford, reasons 1.4 (b/d) POWER NOT IN THE HANDS OF THE PEOPLE -------------- ¶1. (U) The Ministry of Interior announced last month that the wilaya councils (roughly equivalent to U.S. state legislatures) will elect 48 senators December 28 to the Conseil de la Nation (the national upper house, usually referred to as the Senate). In addition to these contested seats, President Bouteflika will appoint 24 senators. The 72 senators (48 elected, 24 appointed) whose six-year mandates are up for renewal make up half the total membership of the body. Two senators represent each wilaya. President Bouteflika may reappoint as many of the 24 senators he appointed six years ago as he likes. In the past, he has generally sought to appoint notable figures of political or academic backgrounds. ¶2. (U) Of the two-thirds of Senators elected by the wilaya councils, the National Democratic Rally (RND) currently controls more than two-thirds of the 96 seats. The FLN comes in second with fewer than 30 seats. The moderate Islamist Movement for a Society of Peace (MSP) controls a handful of seats, with the Islamist opposition Islah party and both Berber opposition parties each having ONE elected senator. Given the dominance of the FLN in the current composition of wilaya councils, analysts expect that party to make impressive gains in Senate elections at the expense of the other parties. THE SENATE'S POWER TO SAY NO -------------- ¶3. (SBU) Most Algerians view the Senate as a costly and ineffective body. It is not uncommon for Algerians to complain that the money spent on seating senators could be better spent. A university professor told us bluntly: "Why should the Public Treasury overpay people for saying yes or no to a law? Since senators are unable to amend legislation from the lower house, the entire body is useless and its existence without justification." What the public does not well understand, ONE political scientist tells us, is that the Senate can reject a law if ONE third of its members oppose it. It is not by coincidence that the president appoints one-third of the Senate. Indeed, the Senate, given the civil strife and terrorism of the 1990s, was originally created nine years ago with the idea that the president needed to have the power to block Islamist-inspired �00A;legislation. In reality, the Senate has exercised its legislative veto only three times. FLN EXPECTED TO MAKE IMPRESSIVE GAINS -------------- ¶4. (C) Ahmed Ouyahia, former prime minister and current head of the RND party, is campaigning in 40 wilayas in an effort to keep the RND majority of elected senators. ONE RND official told us late November that Ouyahia's campaign tour was necessary because the FLN had launched a "very aggressive" campaign across the nation in order to capture a majority of seats. Several political party operatives, however, question the wisdom of Ouyahia's campaign tour given the likelihood of a strong FLN showing. Keen observers of the Algerian political scene expect Bouteflika to appoint former finance minister Abdelatif Benachenhou, former Ambassador Lakhdar Brahimi, and former Ambassador to the U.S. Layachi Yaker to the Senate. These individuals are loyal to the president and the FLN and are antagonistic to RND leader (and possible Bouteflika successor) Ouyahia. Bouteflika's appointment of them would signal a deepening of his reliance on the FLN since Bouteflika replaced Ouyahia as prime minister with FLN party head Belkhadem. Well-known Algerian writer Tahar Oattar and Aicha Barki, the president of a non-governmental organization that combats illiteracy, have the inside track among non-political figures, according to political party sources. Barki is known for her visible support of Bouteflika and personal integrity; Oattar, widely regarded for his wisdom, would reinforce the thoughtful image of the Senate that Bouteflika wishes to convey. SENATE LEADER FIRST IN SUCCESSION TO BOUTEFLIKA -------------- -- ¶5. (C) A former Senate vice president and current member of the FLN executive committee told us in strictest confidence the biggest prize in the Senate is not the membership of the body itself but the election of its president, who assumes on a temporary basis the functions of the president of the republic when a vacancy occurs. In his interim role, the president of the Senate would also organize presidential elections (in which he himself could not be a candidate) to replace the president of the republic. Given the uncertain state of Bouteflika's health, the new Senate president is likely to have a leading role on the national stage. At this juncture, it is too early to place bets on which senator the members of the Senate (both elected and appointed) will choose to lead the body. In any event, the Senate vice president who spoke with us expects the senators to take the election of their body's president more seriously than usual this year. FORD