MP'S SPECULATE ON CONSTITUTIONAL REFERENDUM,

C O N F I D E N T I A L ALGIERS 001835 SIPDIS SIPDIS E.O. 12958: DECL: 10/16/2016 TAGS: PREL PGOV ECON KDEM AG SUBJECT: MP'S SPECULATE ON CONSTITUTIONAL REFERENDUM, CABINET RESHUFFLE AND RENEWED REFORM Classified By: CDA a.i. Thomas F. Daughton for reasons 1.4 (b),(d). ¶1. (C) We met separately October 16 with three respected members of parliament who are also heavyweights in their parties: Nourredine Benbraham (RND),Houria Bouhired (FLN), and Lakhdar Benkhellaf (Islah). Benbraham and Bouhired belong to the two largest parties in the presidential coalition; Benkhellaf's moderate Islamist party is in the opposition. During our discussions, the MPs commented on President Bouteflika's plans for a referendum on constitutional reform, speculated on his health and that of Interior Minister Zerhouni, and offered views on the overall pace of reform. Health Concerns: Bouteflika and Zerhouni -------------- ¶2. (C) All three MPs mentioned Bouteflika's health as a factor in current politics, but with clearly different emphasis. Both RND's Benbraham and FLN's Bouhired stressed that Bouteflika was working hard during Ramadan, staying in the office and breaking his fast well after the vast majority of Algerians. Emphasizing Bouteflika's satisfactory health, Benbraham said that the president planned to travel to China in early November. Islah's Benkhellaf, unlike his presidential coalition counterparts, said Bouteflika's health was a "real concern" for average Algerians. The lack of a successor to Bouteflika weighed heavily on the minds of citizens, he added. ¶3. (C) Turning to Interior Minister Zerhouni's health, which the Algerian public knows has been failing for some time, Benkhellaf and Benbraham understood that Zerhouni's illness would soon compel him to submit his resignation -- if he had not already done so. Benkhellaf remarked that Zerhouni was spending more and more time in the U.S. receiving medical treatment. Benbraham noted that in his absence Water Resources Minister Sellal had attended Bouteflika's recent series of meetings to review the performance of individual ministers, fueling speculation that he might be Zerhouni's replacement. Benbraham also commented that Bouteflika was close to Zerhouni and placed much confidence in him; Zerhouni would be a hard act to follow. Benkhellaf said the ill health of both Bouteflika and Zerhouni complicated efforts to make continued progress on national reconciliation, something he said was of great concern to ordinary Algerians. Constitutional Referendum -------------- ¶4. (C) All three MPs said that President Bouteflika would announce his proposed changes to the constitution and the date of the national referendum soon, probably around the late October 'Eid al-Fitr holiday. All also agreed the referendum would take place in December. Benkhellaf opined that an amendment opening the possibility of a third Bouteflika term was doubtful, given concerns about his state of health. He added that key military actors supported the creation of a vice presidency which, he said, was needed to ease Algerian anxiety about presidential succession. The current system, whereby the president of the Senate assumes the national presidency if the incumbent dies in office, was intended to provide only a caretaker for a few weeks while new elections were organized. A single vice president, Benkhellaf said, would serve as a political heir to Bouteflika, something Algerians of all political persuasions strongly endorsed. Benkhellaf expected this to be the model Bouteflika proposed. Political Reform -------------- ¶5. (C) Islah's Benkhellaf said national reform efforts had slowed because of Bouteflika's ill health and the need to focus on the constitutional referendum in order to pave the way for a successor. Bouhired, a member of the party Bouteflika heads, described ongoing successes in reform of the judiciary, while regretting she had no other examples. She told us to expect a major reshuffle of the cabinet and a "radical" change after the December passage of the constitutional referendum to put reform issues at the forefront of the government's mandate. She also suggested that Prime Minister Belkhadem, whose role would almost certainly be diminished following the constitutional changes, would likely be replaced. ¶6. (C) COMMENT: Our sources increasingly indicate that the constitutional referendum will occur in December, probably later in the month. It does not seem coincidental that the MPs from presidential coalition parties both drew on the same example to illustrate President Bouteflika's good health. They gave the impression of a coalition seeking to convince foreign observers that the president can continue to perform his duties. Perhaps the most insightful comment we heard was Benbraham's observation that national reconciliation stands to suffer if Zerhouni and Bouteflika leave the scene. Indeed, it is the prospect of backsliding in this regard that concerns Algerians the most about presidential succession. DAUGHTON