TAIPEI LIKELY TO REPLACE KEELUNG AS TAIWAN'S

UNCLAS AIT TAIPEI 000961 SIPDIS SENSITIVE SIPDIS STATE FOR EAP/TC HONG KONG FOR DHS/ICE MARK STEELE E.O. 12958: N/A TAGS: EWWT ECON TW SUBJECT: TAIPEI LIKELY TO REPLACE KEELUNG AS TAIWAN'S SECOND LARGEST CONTAINER PORT REF: A. TAIPEI 240 ¶B. TAIPEI 729 Summary -------------- ¶1. (SBU) The construction of container wharfs at Taiwan's Port of Taipei will reduce container traffic at Keelung Harbor where the Department of Homeland Security plans to implement the Container Security Initiative (CSI). The Port of Taipei will have seven container wharfs that will begin operations in succession from 2008 to 2013. AIT/T believes that the Port of Taipei will replace Keelung as the departure point for most container traffic leaving northern Taiwan for the United States. This will affect planning for CSI operations for northern Taiwan's ports. However, because Taipei's facilities will open successively, it may take some time for Taipei to displace Keelung. End summary. Development Plan - Seven Wharfs by 2013 -------------- ¶2. (U) Taiwan is developing the Port of Taipei as a subsidiary port to Keelung Harbor. To date, nine bulk or general cargo wharfs are finished and three more are under construction. Most of the cargo that passes through the port consists of sand, gravel, petroleum products, and automobiles. ¶2. (U) Currently, seven container wharfs are under construction. A joint venture owned by Evergreen Marine, Wan Hai Lines and Yang Ming Marine Transport, Taiwan's major shipping companies, is building the wharfs under a build-operate-transfer (BOT) contract with the Taiwan government. Evergreen, Wan Hai and Yang Ming own 50 percent, 40 percent, and 10 percent of the joint venture, respectively. The joint venture will build the wharfs and have the exclusive right to operate them for 50 years until ¶2053. ¶3. (U) Under the current schedule, the first two container wharfs will be completed and begin operations in March ¶2008. One new wharf will be completed each year until 2013 when all seven wharfs will be in operation. Each wharf will be large enough to berth ships with capacities of up to 8,000 TEU (twenty-foot equivalent units). The total estimated yearly capacity for the seven wharfs when completed is 2-3.5 million TEU. In comparison, 2.09 million TEU passed through Keelung Harbor in 2005. Advantages Over Keelung - Capacity and Geography -------------- --- �00A; ¶4. (U) The Port of Taipei will have several advantages over Keelung Harbor that will attract container traffic away from the older port, especially U.S.-bound container traffic. The Port of Taipei's main advantage is the size of its wharfs. Keelung's 15 container wharfs will outnumber those at the Port of Taipei, but Taipei will be able to accommodate larger vessels. The average length of the container wharfs at Taipei is 336 meters compared to 234 meters at Keelung. The average depths are 15.5 meters for Taipei and 12 meters for Keelung. Each berth in the Port of Taipei can accommodate Post-Panamax ships with capacities of up to 8,000 TEU. In comparison, even the largest wharf in Keelung, which is 324.3 meters long and 14.5 meters deep, can accommodate ships with a maximum capacity of no more than 5,500 TEU. The other fourteen berths are substantially smaller. Shipping companies are more likely to use the larger vessels that will be able stop at Port of Taipei for longer routes, such as trans- Pacific routes to the United States. ¶5. (U) The Port of Taipei has several geographic advantages as well. It is closer to many of the manufacturing centers of northern Taiwan such as Taoyuan and Hsinchu. It also has a better link to Taiwan's highway network. In addition, the area of the port itself is larger than Keelung's, which is surrounded by the city of Keelung and mountains on all sides. Shipping and logistics companies will, therefore, be able to build larger facilities at the Port of Taipei. Other Variables - Overall Trends and Shipping Companies -------------- -------------- ¶6. (U) There are other factors that make it hard to predict how much the construction of the Port of Taipei will cut into cargo traffic in other ports in Taiwan. One important variable is the overall trend for cargo volumes passing through Taiwan's ports. The total volume of containers passing through Taiwan's ports fell last year for the first time since 2001. Taiwan's economy was suffering a recession in 2001, but 2005's 1.8 percent decline in container volum came in a year when Taiwan's economy grew by 4.1 percent. Last year's decline may be the start of a trend driven by the rapid growth of cargo being handled by ports in Mainland China. If volumes continue to decline in Taiwan, traffic from Keelung's smaller facilities will fall even more quickly. ¶7. (SBU) Another important factor will be the strategy of shipping companies. They will decide how to direct container traffic that passes through northern Taiwan's ports. Ministry of Transportation and Communications Senior Specialist Chen Jin-sheng pointed out to AIT/T that shipping companies currently ship 800,000 to 900,000 TEU annually from Keelung to Kaohsiung before exporting out of Taiwan. This constitutes 80 to 90 percent of Keelung's total outgoing container traffic. Chen believes that most of this traffic will be exported from Taipei instead of Kaohsiung. Assessment - Port of Taipei Will Displace Keelung's Role -------------- -------------- ¶8. (SBU) Given the advantages of the Port of Taipei for larger vessels, AIT/T believes that it will eventually displace Keelung Harbor as the departure point for most container traffic leaving northern Taiwan for the United States. However, because the container wharfs will open successively, this may not happen immediately when the first wharfs begin operations in 2008. Many of Taiwan's large-scale transportation BOT projects, such as the high- speed rail, Kaohsiung mass rapid transit system, and highway electronic toll collection system, have suffered serious problems and delays (reftels). To date, we are not aware of any problems associated with the Port of Taipei BOT project, but the possibility of delays in the current schedule cannot be ruled out. YOUNG