TAIWAN CONTINUES TO WORRY ABOUT CENTRAL AMERICA

S E C R E T AIT TAIPEI 000781 SIPDIS SIPDIS E.O. 12958: DECL: 3/09/2016 TAGS: CR NC PAN PANAM PGOV PREL TW XR SUBJECT: TAIWAN CONTINUES TO WORRY ABOUT CENTRAL AMERICA TIES REF: TAIPEI 0427 Classified By: AIT Acting Director David J. Keegan, Reason 1.4 (b/d) ¶1. (C) Summary: Taiwan Ministry of Foreign Affairs (MOFA) officials continue to worry about Taipei's diplomatic standing in Central America and are particularly concerned that Panama, Costa Rica, and Nicaragua might consider switching recognition from Taipei to Beijing. MOFA hopes US influence in the region will help Taiwan maintain its relationships. End summary. ¶2. (S) MOFA's immediate concern is Panama (reftel). In two recent meetings with the Acting Director, Foreign Minister James Huang pointed to Panama-PRC meetings in Madrid in mid-February as evidence of Panama's strong interest in exploring the possibility of switching recognition. Huang explained that because the US has interests and influence in the region, Taipei hopes Washington might be able to render some assistance to Taiwan. He added that MOFA assesses Panamanian President Torrijos is inclined to maintain diplomatic ties with Taiwan while expanding commercial ties with Beijing, but Vice-President and Foreign Minister Samuel Lewis is pressuring Torrijos to derecognize Taiwan. ¶3. (C) MOFA Director-General for Latin America Jai-son Ko also expressed concern about Panama and told AIT that despite Panamanian assurances, Taipei is not confident of its standing and does not know "what is going to happen." He stressed that Taiwan would like to work with Washington in its effort to convince Panama not to recognize Beijing. ¶4. (C) Ko also raised concerns about Nicaragua and Costa Rica. In Nicaragua, he said, there are far too many candidates opposing pro-PRC Sandinista candidate Daniel Ortega in the Fall presidential election, which could split the vote and allow Ortega to win the presidency outright. Ko expressed hope that the US will consider using it influence to encourage the anti-Sandinista candidates to cooperate to find an effective strategy to oppose Ortega. ¶5. (C) In Costa Rica, Ko feared that president-elect Oscar Arias Sanchez will move San Jose closer to Beijing. Within a year, he speculated, Sanchez might move to exchange trade offices with China, as a precursor to formal ties. Separately, Costa Rica's Ambassador to Taiwan, Dr. Oscar Alvarez, told AIT that he expects one of Sanchez's priorities after assuming office will be to expand ties with Beijing and invest in the PRC market. In the past, Alvarez noted, Sanchez has expressed his displeasure with Costa Rica's ties to Taiwan. Alvarez told AIT that many Costa Rican government officials believe Sanchez is preparing to switch ties to Beijing when the time is right. ¶6. (C) Comment: Although Central America is Taiwan's most important region diplomatically, based on AIT's meetings with mid-level MOFA officials, it appears that Taipei does not have a solid grasp on the status of its diplomatic ties with governments in the region. There is a sense of pessimism that Taipei is barely hanging on and must rely on US influence to help maintain Taiwan's ties and provide accurate assessments of Taipei's diplomatic standing. If this trend continues, it is only a matter of time before Taiwan will lose its partners in Central America. KEEGAN