MEDIA REACTION: WASHINGTON-BEIJING-TAIPEI RELATIONS

UNCLAS AIT TAIPEI 000579 SIPDIS DEPARTMENT FOR INR/R/MR, EAP/TC, EAP/PA, EAP/PD - ERIC BARBORIAK DEPARTMENT PASS AIT/WASHINGTON SIPDIS E.O. 12958: N/A TAGS: OPRC KMDR KPAO TW SUBJECT: MEDIA REACTION: WASHINGTON-BEIJING-TAIPEI RELATIONS ¶1. Summary: Taiwan's major Chinese-language dailies continued to focus their coverage February 24 on the aftermath of President Chen Shui-bian's announced proposal to abolish the National Unification Council (NUC) and National Unification Guidelines (NUG); a BBC interview with KMT Chairman Ma Ying-jeou in London; and the February 28 Incident of 1947. The pro-independence "Liberty Times," Taiwan's biggest daily, ran a banner headline on its page two that quoted Chen as saying that he "Will Abolish the NUC and NUG Even [at the Risk of] Being Scolded by [U.S. President George W.] Bush." The pro-status quo "China Times," on the other hand, ran a banner headline on its front page that read: "Bian Will Have a Remedy for [His Planned Move to] Abolish the NUC and NUG; [He Will] Scrap the `Last No' But Keep the `Four No's.'" The newspaper also carried an exclusive news story on its front page with the headline: "United States: Does Taiwan Still Need Our Protection?" The pro-unification "United Daily News" topped its front-page news story on the topic with the headline: "To Release the Pressure on [Chen's Plan] to Abolish the NUC and NUG, [Mainland Affairs Council Chairman] Joseph Wu Passes a Message [via a Third Person to Beijing]: [Taiwan] Will Not Cross the Red Line." ¶2. In terms of editorials and commentaries, a "China Times" editorial urged Taipei to be mentally prepared because Washington is sure to "teach Taiwan a lesson" for Chen's plan to abolish the NUC and NUG. The article said "Chen may likely win himself the throne of the new godfather of Taiwan independence, and he may resolve his leadership crisis inside the DPP in the end. But Taiwan, other than accomplishing Chen's personal political benefits, will have to pay an extraordinarily high price, and this price is sure to be paid by all the Taiwan people." Yu Pen-li, assistant professor at Tamkang University's Graduate Institute of American Studies, cautioned Taiwan in the mass-circulation "Apple Daily" that Washington and Beijing may decide to sign a fourth communiqu during the meeting between U.S. President George W. Bush and Chinese President Hu Jintao in April. An editorial in the limited-circulated, pro- independence, English-language "Taiwan News," on the other hand, defended Chen by saying that the plan to abolish the NUC and NUG is a move to uphold Taiwan's current status. End summary. A) "How Is Washington Going to Teach Taiwan a Lesson? -- The Probability That Taiwan Cannot Avoid Accepting" The pro-status quo "China Times" [circulation: 400,000] editorialized (2/24): "Judging from President Chen's personal remarks to U.S. House Representative Rob Simmons the other day, the policy to abolish the NUC and NUG seem to be decided already. Now the question that remains is the `timing' [of the government's] formal announcement of the decision. . In other words, as of now, the question regarding whether [Chen] will abolish the NUC and NUG is already [one that should be in] the past tense. The question that should be asked now instead is what `consequences' Taiwan will have to bear for the abolition of the NUC and NUG. . "This kind of waiting and speculation is really very uncomfortable [for the Taiwan people]! [We] all know that there will be harm [done to Taiwan], but we have no idea what kind of harm it will be. After all, Washington has made it very clear to Taiwan that it does not wish to see the latter go along with its plan [to abolish the NUC and NUG]. It can be said that Washington has `said everything it could' [to Taiwan] by sending a secret envoy to personally persuade [Chen] and by repeated publicly calling on [Taiwan to refrain from carrying out the plan]. But Chen remains unmoved. Now the ball is in Washington's court. No one knows what Washington's next response will be. Will it humiliate Taiwan again during the meeting between U.S. President George W. Bush and Chinese President Hu Jintao in April, or postpone the talks and signing of the U.S.-Taiwan Free Trade Agreement? Will it postpone the appointment of [the new] AIT director, or there will be other [penalties]? Perhaps it will turn out to be just a light penalty in the end, or it may be a severe one. But no matter what, at least we can be sure that the United States will surely respond. Taiwan had better be mentally prepared that things will not be over so easily. . "The point with regard to the abolition of the NUC and NUG is that it does not matter whether the NUC or NUG are `an absurd product made during an absurd era' or that whether the KMT has already `included Taiwan independence as a possible option' [for Taiwan people to decide on their future]. What really matters is whether Taiwan has violated its own pledge and whether it is exploring the possibility of crossing the red line of the policy. It is unlikely that the United States is not aware that the NUC is a body that `exists in name only,' and the move to abolish the NUC and NUG will not create clear and imminent change to the substance of the status quo across the Taiwan Strait. But for the United States, Chen's move to `pick up a piece of trash that is already in the trash can and toss it [back in] again' (to quote [former DPP Chairman] Shih Ming-teh's phrase) is by no means aimed at the NUC and NUG themselves. Instead, [what Chen cares about is] the symbolic significance of such a move; namely, it is an indication of a string of changes that are about to follow. . If Washington takes no action at all [towards Taiwan], it will mean that the Five No's overall falling part will just be a matter of time. Should that happen, Beijing's will definitely enhance its power of backlashes, and both sides of the Taiwan Strait will again fall into a new wave of `uncertainty.' Will the United States be happy to see such a development? If Taiwan is the one that creates the change in the status quo, especially Washington has failed to stop Taiwan after President George W. Bush has personally sent an envoy to persuade Taiwan not to do it, how can the United States not get angry and take this opportunity to `teach Taiwan a lesson'! "No matter what the United States chooses to do in the end, it is expected that it will do damage to Taiwan's right and interests. Anyone with an international sense is clearly aware of this result, but Chen's recent actions seemed to show that he did not care at all, and the DPP also seems very confident and fearless about what it is doing. Yes, Chen may likely win himself the throne of the new godfather of Taiwan independence, and he may likely resolve his leadership crisis inside the DPP in the end. But Taiwan, other than accomplishing Chen's personal political benefits, will have to pay an extraordinarily high price, and this price is sure to be paid jointly by all Taiwan people." B) "[Taiwan] Must Watch out for the [Sino-U.S.] Fourth Communiqu After It Abolishes the NUC and NUG" Yu Pen-li, assistant professor at Tamkang University's Graduate Institute of American Studies, commented in the mass-circulation "Apple Daily" [circulation: 500,000] (2/24): ". The failure of [U.S. National Security Council Senior Acting Director for Asian Affairs] Dennis Wilder's assigned trip to communicate with Taiwan will not be the end but the beginning of the controversy about [President Chen's] proposal to abolish the NUC and NUG. It is imaginable that the relevant U.S. government agencies in Washington will upgrade its level in handling the cross-Strait issues. . The biggest nightmare for the United States is having tensions rise across the Taiwan Strait because both sides misread the situation, and as a result, the cross-Strait situation gets out of control, forcing Washington to advance [the time to sit down] with Beijing and have a showdown over the Taiwan issue in an attempt to prevent being dragged into war. "In order to avoid the risks of being dragged into war and to reduce tensions [across the Taiwan Strait], Washington will only strengthen communication with Beijing rather than resisting it. Beijing will also increase its pressure on Washington and not just bluff. As maintaining peace and stability in the Taiwan Strait closely concerns Washington's and Beijing's interests, Washington's joining hands with Beijing to restrain Taipei will then be the greatest test for the Taiwan government and its people. ". Chinese President Hu Jintao's visit to the United States in April is thus of essential importance. Will Washington and Beijing, out of their joint needs to restrain the Taiwan authorities' marginal policy, sign a fourth communiqu to put into words their opposition to Taiwan independence? . This is something that Taiwan should pay more attention to. ." C) "Abolishing NUG Upholds Taiwan's Current Status" The pro-independence, English-language "Taiwan News" [circulation: 20,000] said in an editorial (2/24): "We urge all political actors, Taiwan citizens and foreign observers to grasp the key point that the proposal by President Chen Shui-bian to formally abolish the long- dormant NUC and its NUG is a move that will preserve Taiwan's current status, not `unilaterally alter' the status quo in the Taiwan Strait. . We believe that President Chen can make this issue clearer by reaffirming that all options for the future are open based on the reality that Taiwan is now an independent and self-governing democratic state and that any changes in Taiwan's current status need to be ratified by national referendum of our citizens, as already stipulated in our Constitution. "With a neutral government policy and a process of Constitutional reform that requires three-fourths Legislative approval and ratification by half of the eligible voters in a national referendum, everyone can feel assured that any changes in Taiwan's status will require an overwhelming consensus and will no longer be vulnerable to unilateral or caviler dictation by any political party or individual. Eliminating the NUC and NUG will bolster our current status, not change it." KEEGAN