MEDIA REACTION: APEC, U.S.-CHINA RELATIONS, CROSS-STRAIT

UNCLAS AIT TAIPEI 003896 SIPDIS DEPARTMENT FOR INR/R/MR, EAP/TC, EAP/PA, EAP/PD - DAVID FIRESTEIN DEPARTMENT PASS AIT/WASHINGTON SIPDIS E.O. 12958: N/A TAGS: OPRC KMDR KPAO TW SUBJECT: MEDIA REACTION: APEC, U.S.-CHINA RELATIONS, CROSS-STRAIT RELATIONS ¶1. Summary: Taiwan dailies (November 18-20) focused on two issues: A traffic accident on Saturday that injured Taichung Mayor Jason Hu and especially his wife, who was still in critical condition as of November 20; and Taipei Mayor Ma Ying-jeou's decision on Friday to donate NT$15 million [US$461 thousand] to charity, representing the portion of the special mayoral allowance he has received during his term of office that does not require receipts. ¶2. In terms of editorials and commentaries, an editorial in the pro-unification "United Daily News" urged Taiwan quickly to lift its bans on cross-Strait trade and economic relations in order to save the island from the current danger of being marginalized. The limited-circulation, pro-independence "Taipei Times" editorialized that APEC must promote an inclusive community so that Taiwan's participation can be safeguarded. An editorial in the limited-circulation, conservative, pro-unification "China Post" discussed U.S.-China relations in the wake of the U.S. mid-term elections. The article said "Beijing should brace itself for the cold winds blowing in its direction from Capitol Hill." An editorial in the pro-independence "Liberty Times" criticized the proposal of Kinmen [Quemoy] County Magistrate Lee Chu-feng regarding the establishment of a "'One Country, Two Systems' Test Zone." End summary. ¶3. APEC a) "APEC Agenda: to Save [Taiwan] from Being Marginalized, the Key Lies in Easing [Cross-Strait] Restrictions First" The pro-unification "United Daily News" [circulation: 400,000] editorialized (11/18): "... Mainland China's economic rise has thoroughly changed the political and economic situation in the Asia-Pacific region. The United States, which retains political and economic hegemony on the other side of the Pacific, has, despite its lingering influence, evidently lost its previous glitter on this side of the Pacific. In contrast, China is getting more and more powerful when it comes to its say in the region. In addition to relying on its strength and market power that have been accumulated through its rapid economic developments over the past few years, China has clearly been fostering economic integration in the region. For example, it has been seeking to sign a Free Trade Agreement (FTA) with the ASEAN member nations, followed by moves gradually to expand the extent of [the FTA region's] power to 'ASEAN plus umpteen' - actions that will naturally force economies in the region to attach great importance to their interactions with China. The formation of a new 'East Asianism,' with China, Japan, South Korea, and ASEAN as its backbone, has resulted in the United States' eagerness to deepen its relations with the economies of East Asia in order to prevent itself from being excluded [from such a force.] The Free Trade Agreement of the Asia-Pacific (FTAAP),as a result, is exactly a strategic product of 'Asia Pacific-ism' fighting against the 'East Asianism.' Yet, given the fact that China and Japan will not easily grant Washington what it wishes, the establishment of the FTAAP is, without a doubt, very difficult. "Judged from this perspective, it would be wishful thinking and unrealistic expectations on the part of the Taiwan government to place its hope of saving the island from being marginalized on the FTAAP. For Taiwan, [the danger of] marginalization is an 'on-going issue' rather than simply a 'future crisis.' ... As a matter of fact, countless proposals and studies have been made with regard to how to break [Taiwan's] deadlock of being marginalized, and their common conclusions all point to the normalization of cross-Strait trade and economic relations. Even the United States, during its talk with Taiwan over the FTA, raised a similar precondition, which has all the more highlighted the necessity [of normalizing cross-Strait trade and economic relations]. To lift the ban on cross-Strait trade and economic relations is an unavoidable topic for the Taiwan government, and the choice lies in Taiwan's own hands. It is neither reliable nor practical [for Taiwan] to rely on the FTAAP to protect itself." b) "APEC Must Promote Inclusive Community" The pro-independence, English-language "Taipei Times" [circulation: 30,000] editorialized (11/20): "... The most positive new development for Taiwan in the week-long gathering of economic national leaders, ministers and senior working-level officials has been the sudden interest given to the notion of an Asia-Pacific regional economic community, especially by the United States, which seems to have rediscovered the importance of multilateral organizations after over five years of an aggressive "America First" unilateralism. "Regionalism is certainly an inevitable trend in the Asia Pacific and it will be far more desirable for most countries and their businesses and people if the process of attaining regional integration and the content of future regional institutions were inclusive and transparent. ... "... We can expect that the FTAAP concept will become a bone of serious contention between the PRC and the U.S. since Washington's sudden enthusiasm for the concept and its expansion of the notion to include non-economic aspects as shown by the term "community," directly impinges on the PRC's drive to turn the Pacific Ocean into its pond and to exclude Taiwan from equal, meaningful or perhaps even any participation. "The ultimate result of an effort to build either an FTAAP or an Asia Pacific Community will depend less on economic factors and more on the political will and wisdom of key players, especially Japan, Australia, Canada and the various Southeast Asian nations in addition to the U.S. and the PRC. "The second most important trend in this year's APEC 2006 summit was the explicit discussion about a regional security issue, namely North Korea's development of nuclear weapons, under a strong push by both Washington and Tokyo. "The inclusion of such major security issues in the APEC's substantive deliberations was marred by the PRC's insistence on Taiwan's exclusion from foreign minister discussions. ... "... But the push in APEC to encompass security issues, while welcome in principle, may cause APEC to lose its focus as an arena for economic and social cooperation and also lead to further erosion in Taiwan's substantive status in the Asia-Pacific community. ... "... We should have offered a reminder to the rest of the Asia Pacific community that Taiwan faces a threat of missiles by a fellow APEC member, namely China, at least as grave if not more so than that posed by Pyongyang's nuclear program." ¶4. U.S.-China Relations "Chilly Winds from D.C." The conservative, pro-unification, English-language "China Post" [circulation: 30,000] editorialized (11/18): "George W. Bush has never hit it off with Hu Jintao; that's no secret. The American president may like Chen Shui-bian better, SIPDIS although he did not pull his punches when the Taiwanese president made political trouble for him. Bush was tough on Beijing, especially before the 9/11 attacks. Washington-Beijing relations were lukewarm at best. Now, after the mid-term elections in the United States, where the balance of political power changed in favor of the Democrats, which have recaptured the Congress for the first time in 12 years, is Beijing any more comfortable in dealing with Washington? Not at all. Beijing should brace itself for cold winds blowing in its direction from Capitol Hill. Incoming House speaker, Nancy Pelosi, is a harsh critic of Beijing's human rights record. The Senate, with Harry Reid as majority leader, seems poised to play hard ball with Beijing on a number of nasty trade issues. ... "Beijing should be prepared for a round of China-bashing from Congressional Democrats who accuse Beijing of unfair trading practices, including an undervalued yuan and intellectual property rights. ..." ¶5. Cross-Strait Relations "How Can a Country be Under Two Systems? Capitulation Needs no Test" The pro-independence "Liberty Times" [circulation: 600,000] editorialized (11/18): "New Party Kinmen [Quemoy] County Magistrate Lee Chu-feng made a surprising statement in the county council, proposing to develop the county into a 'One Country, Two System Test Zone' in order to attract greater economic interest; it also attempts to create another interactive option for cross-Strait relations to seek a win-win situation. ... "Although Hong Kong and Macau had gotten rid of colonization over the past ten years, they were soon forced to be included in China's territory. During this period of time, due to the lack of democracy, residents [in these two areas] were never given the opportunities to express their will and to determine their future. Magistrate Lee's assertion, however, will proactively push the Kinmen people from a democratic regime into the fire pit of communist authoritarian rule; to put it bluntly, does Kinmen need a test should it surrender to China? ..." YOUNG