MEDIA REACTION: DPRK NUCLEAR TEST

UNCLAS AIT TAIPEI 003474 SIPDIS DEPARTMENT FOR INR/R/MR, EAP/TC, EAP/PA, EAP/PD - DAVID FIRESTEIN DEPARTMENT PASS AIT/WASHINGTON SIPDIS E.O. 12958: N/A TAGS: OPRC KMDR KPAO TW SUBJECT: MEDIA REACTION: DPRK NUCLEAR TEST ¶1. Summary: Taiwan's major Chinese-language dailies focused their coverage October 6-11 on the high-profile parade and siege of the Presidential Office launched by former DPP Chairman Shih Ming-teh's "Oust Bian" campaign on the Double Ten National Day; on North Korea's nuclear test Monday; and on new Japanese Prime Minister ABE Shinzo's visits to China and South Korea over the weekend. The pro-status quo "China Times" front-paged an exclusive news story on October 8 with the headline "Following Cessation of National Unification Council, Bian Wants to Redefine Taiwan's Territory; United States Exert Triple Pressure." ¶2. In terms of editorials and commentaries, most Chinese-language dailies editorialized on the high-profile parade Tuesday to oust President Chen Shui-bian while editorials of all the English-language papers discussed North Korea's nuclear test Monday. A "China Times" opinion piece said North Korea's nuclear test showed that China's nightmare is becoming a reality. An opinion piece in the pro-unification "United Daily News" pointed out four key parts to resolve the nuclear crisis on the Korean Peninsula: the United States, China, the Six-Party Talks, and the UN Security Council. An editorial in the pro-independence, English-language "Taipei Times" urged Taiwan's leaders to put aside their petty bickering and formulate a unified, proactive policy o deal with this crisis. An editorial in the conservative, pro-unification, English-language "China Post" suggested that Taiwan consider resuming its plan to go nuclear. An editorial in the pro-independence, English-language "Taiwan News," on the other hand, said "Beijing will be under intense pressure to show in action and not just words whether it stands with the international community to prevent the emergence of a nuclear and missile-armed North Korea." End summary. ¶3. DPRK Nuclear Test A) "North Korea's Nuclear Test, China's Nightmare" Lai I-chung, executive member of the Taiwan Think Tank, opined in the pro-status quo "China Times" [circulation; 400,000] (10/10): "... North Korea's nuclear test also indicated that the 'Six-Party Talks,' which were organized to resolve North Korea's nuclear issue, are a total failure. As a matter of fact, the 'Six-Party Talks' have never really achieved anything, because the United States and China have been acting inconsistently. ... China has contributed much energy to the 'Six-Party Talks' in the hope of using the talks to prevent any actions that may endanger China's interests in North Korea, thereby further directing the security agenda in Northeast Asia. But Pyongyang's nuclear test, which turned the 'Six-Party Talks' into a failure, indicated that the nuclear diplomacy headed by China would end in failure and that China has lost a favorable strategic stage in Northeast Asia where it can play its role. In the meantime, while both the United States and Japan demanded that the United Nations adopt stern punitive measures against North Korea, China faces a dilemma of choosing to take sides with the United States and Japan, or with North Korea. North Korea is China's key strategic buffer zone and a major tool to restrain Japan. But it will not meet China's current strategic interests to have a showdown with Japan and the United States just because of Pyongyang's nuclear test. In the face of a North Korea that is airing the opposite view from China's in public, the strategic nightmare that China has been worried about seems to have become reality. ..." B) "Four Keys to Resolve the North Korean Crisis" Professor Philip Yang of National Taiwan University's Department of Political Science opined in the pro-unification "United Daily News" [circulation: 400,000] (10/10): "... In the face of the crisis in which North Korea has already performed nuclear tests, there are four major parts in the resolution equation: the United States, China, the Six-Party Talks, and the UN Security Council. The United States, for its part, must demonstrate a consistent policy, but it also needs to adopt a more flexible approach to deal with future talks [with Pyongyang]. China must further exert its influence in mediating the two sides; moreover, Beijing must give double guarantees to Washington and Pyongyang about the contents of their negotiations, since North Korea, which has succeeded in its nuclear tests, also poses a threat to China's security. The Six-Party Talks should be the only venue that will bring Pyongyang back to the negotiation table, while the joint statement made on September 15, 2005 can still serve as a starting point. The sanctions that will be imposed by the Security Council will end up in more talks rather than real actions, but still, the Security Council can gather together voices in the international community and provide a venue for China and the United States to test each other's position. ..." C) "Nuke Test Heralds New Age of Danger" The pro-independence, English-language "Taipei Times" [circulation: 30,000] editorialized (10/10): "North Korea claims it completed an underground nuclear test yesterday morning. Everyone knew this day might come, but that does not mitigate the awful dread with which we meet the news that Pyongyang has joined the nuclear club. ... For anyone living in the Asia-Pacific region, there are few events that could have such a profound impact. A major, protracted conflict involving some of the world's most powerful countries and economies is now a distinct possibility. The stability enjoyed in East Asia since the cessation of hostilities in the Korean War has been turned into uncertainty. The security relationship between Japan, China, South Korea, North Korea, Russia and the US will now begin to change drastically. "This is a situation that poses serious challenges for Taiwan. Even if yesterday's test does not lead to conflict, its repercussions will be felt for years. ... Taiwan's leaders must set aside their petty bickering and formulate a unified, proactive policy to deal with this crisis. Because internationally, Taiwan's domestic problems take a back seat to the threat of nuclear war." D) "Kim Jong-il's Nuclear Rabbit" The conservative, pro-unification, English-language "China Post" [circulation: 30,000] editorialized (10/11): "KimJong-il, North Korea's dictator, did it. He just pulled a nuclear rabbit out of his hat like a black magician who did the trick without saying abracadabra. Of course, Kim surprised almost everybody, just as his father did in May 1950 by unleashing his Communist army in an all-out attempt to take over South Korea. ... But North Korea's successful nuclear test explosion certainly will trigger an arms race, and that is the real concern of the United States and the rest of the West. India and Pakistan already have their atomic bombs. Iran will be encouraged to develop its nuclear weapons, while South Korea and Japan, the two likeliest targets of a North Korean nuclear attack, are being forced to build theirs to achieve a balance of terror. In other words, the Nuclear Non-proliferation Treaty is going to be just a piece of paper. "As the situation now stands, it is time for Taiwan to consider resuming its plan to go nuclear. President Chiang Ching-kuo halted it when it came to light. Taiwan is a signatory of the treaty, and the plan was scrapped under persistent American pressure. Just like South Korea, Taiwan faces a potential enemy, who, however, is already a nuclear power. China has been a member of the nuclear club since 1965. It deploys 800 cruise missiles targeting Taiwan. We are not certain if these missiles can carry nuclear warheads, but we do believe Taiwan has to have a nuclear deterrence in self-defense. We have to have it to make China hesitate to invade Taiwan for whatever trumped-up reason." E) "Taiwan Cannot Ignore Nuclear Test by North Korea" The pro-independence, English-language "Taiwan News" [circulation: 20,000] editorialized (10/10): "Yesterday's announcement by the secretive North Korean regime under Kim Jong Il that it had successfully conducted an underground test of a small nuclear weapon must be seen as a sharp wake-up call to capitals around the world, including Washington, Tokyo and Beijing, and it may have a grave impact on the prospects for peace and security in Northeast Asia. ... In any event, it is unlikely that Washington, Tokyo or Seoul, much less Beijing, will attempt to push North Korea into a corner. A more likely alternative would be the restoration of the multilateral six-power talks on the North Korean issue. Despite the increased threat to the people of Japan and South Korea posed by Pyongyang's latest display of brinkmanship, the government which has suffered the greatest degree of embarrassment is the Chinese Communist Party-ruled People's Republic of China, which has long been North Korea's closest ally and is its main provider of economic and energy assistance. With the test firings of missiles and the testing of a nuclear device, Pyongyang has demonstrated that Beijing, whose leaders are on record as supporting a non-nuclear Korean peninsula, have only limited influence in controlling the Kim regime. ... Beijing will be under intense pressure to show in action and not just words whether it stands with the international community to prevent the emergence of a nuclear and missile-armed North Korea. ..." YOUNG