CROSS-STRAIT TOURISM - OFFICIAL VENEER VERY THIN

C O N F I D E N T I A L AIT TAIPEI 003147

SIPDIS

SIPDIS





STATE PASS USTR
STATE FOR EAP/TC
COMMERCE FOR 3132/USFCS/OIO/EAP/WZARIT
TREASURY FOR OASIA/LMOGHTADER
USTR FOR STRATFORD, ALTBACH

E.O. 12958: DECL: 09/08/2016
TAGS: ECON PREL CH TW
SUBJECT: CROSS-STRAIT TOURISM - OFFICIAL VENEER VERY THIN

REF: A. TAIPEI 418


B. TAIPEI 1260

C. TAIPEI 1398

D. TAIPEI 2411

E. TAIPEI 2991

CLASSIFIED BY: AIT DEPUTY DIRECTOR ROBERT S. WANG, REASON 1.4 D


1. (C) SUMMARY: DISCUSSIONS WITH TAIWAN TOURISM INDUSTRY
LEADERS INDICATE THAT PRIVATE INDUSTRY ASSOCIATIONS WILL
CONTINUE TO PLAY A CENTRAL ROLE IN CROSS-STRAIT
DISCUSSIONS ON TOURISM, EVEN THOUGH A TAIWAN GOVERNMENT
OFFICIAL IN AN UNOFFICIAL CAPACITY WILL SIGN ANY FINAL
AGREEMENT. THEY ALL PREDICT THAT TAIWAN AND THE PRC WILL
REACH AN AGREEMENT BY THE END OF THE YEAR TO FURTHER OPEN
TAIWAN TO PRC TOURISTS. END SUMMARY.

INDUSTRY STILL LEADS DISCUSSIONS
--------------


2. (C) IN AN AUGUST 29 DISCUSSION WITH ECONOFF, MAINLAND
AFFAIRS COUNCIL (MAC) ECONOMIC DIVISION DIRECTOR FU DON-
CHENG EMPHASIZED THE FACT THAT THE NEW INDUSTRY
ASSOCIATION, THE ACROSS THE TAIWAN STRAIT TOURISM
ASSOCIATION, CREATED TO HANDLE FORMAL CROSS-STRAIT
CONSULTATIONS ON TOURISM, WAS HEADED BY A TAIWAN
GOVERNMENT OFFICIAL, DIRECTOR GENERAL HSU WEN-SHENG OF THE
MINISTRY OF TRANSPORTATION AND COMMUNICATIONS TOURISM
BUREAU (REF E). THIS MODEL DIFFERED FROM PREVIOUS
CONSULTATIONS ON CROSS-STRAIT HOLIDAY CHARTER FLIGHTS
CONDUCTED THROUGH THE TAIPEI AIRLINES ASSOCIATION AND LED
BY THE HEAD OF ONE OF TAIWANS AIR CARRIERS. HAVING A
TAIWAN GOVERNMENT OFFICIAL SIGN THE FINAL AGREEMENT WITH
THE PRC REPRESENTS AN IMPORTANT BREAKTHROUGH FROM THE
TAIWAN PERSPECTIVE. THIS IS TRUE EVEN THOUGH BOTH THE
TAIWAN AND PRC SIGNERS WILL BE ACTING AS INDUSTRY
ASSOCIATION REPRESENTATIVES. THE PRC SIGNER WILL ALSO BE
A DOUBLE-HATTED GOVERNMENT OFFICIAL.


3. (C) HOWEVER, AFTER DISCUSSING PLANS FOR THE NEW
ORGANIZATION WITH HSU, TAIWAN VISITORS ASSOCIATION (TVA)
CHAIRMAN CHANG SHUO-LAO AND TAIPEI ASSOCIATION OF TRAVEL
AGENTS (TATA) CHAIRMAN YAO TA-KUANG, IT IS CLEAR THAT
PRIVATE INDUSTRY WILL STILL PLAY A CENTRAL ROLE IN THE
INFORMAL DISCUSSIONS ON AN AGREEMENT. TATA'S YAO TOLD
AIT/T ON AUGUST 31 THAT HIS ORGANIZATION AND ITS UMBRELLA
ORGANIZATION, THE TRAVEL AGENTS ASSOCIATION OF TAIWAN
(TAAT),WERE IN THE PROCESS OF SORTING OUT WITH PRC
COUNTERPARTS THE REMAINING TECHNICAL ISSUES TO BE RESOLVED.
HE DETAILED THE OUTSTANDING ISSUES, INCLUDING TRAVELERS
DOCUMENTATION, PLANS TO BIOMETRIC IDENTIFICATION DATA,
MECHANISMS FOR RESOLVING BUSINESS DISPUTES ACROSS THE
STRAIT, AND PROCEDURES FOR PRC VISITORS WHO OVERSTAY. YAO
ALSO SAID THAT THE TWO SIDES WOULD HOLD AN INFORMAL
CONSULTATION IN MID-SEPTEMBER TO DISCUSS THESE ISSUES.


4. (C) BY CONTRAST, TOURISM BUREAU DG HSU, THE TITULAR
HEAD OF THE NEW ORGANIZATION, TOLD US ON AUGUST 31 THAT
THE TOURISM BUREAU IS NOT DIRECTLY INVOLVED IN THE CROSS-
STRAIT DISCUSSIONS AT THIS STAGE. HSU EXPLAINED CANDIDLY
THAT HE JUST DOES WHAT MAC TELLS HIM TO WHEN IT COMES TO
CROSS-STRAIT TOURISM. TVA'S CHANG, WHO ALSO SITS ON THE
BOARD OF THE NEW ORGANIZATION, SEPARATELY CONFIRMED THIS
ASSESSMENT, TELLING AIT ON SEPTEMBER 1 THAT HSU'S ONLY
ROLE IN THE PROCESS WILL BE TO SIGN THE FINAL AGREEMENT AT
A MEETING THAT WILL MOST LIKELY TAKE PLACE IN MACAO.
ACCORDING TO CHANG, HSUS COUNTERPART IN SIGNING THE
AGREEMENT WILL NOT BE SHAO QI-WEI, HEAD OF THE PRC'S
CROSS-STRAIT TRAVEL EXCHANGE ASSOCIATION AND DIRECTOR
GENERAL OF THE CHINA NATIONAL TOURISM ASSOCIATION (CNTA),
BUT RATHER HIS DEPUTY IN BOTH ORGANIZATIONS, ZHANG XI-QIN.
TVA'S CHANG EXPLAINED THAT THE PRC VIEWS THE CNTA DIRECTOR
GENERAL POSITION AS EQUIVALENT IN RANK TO A VICE MINISTER
IN TAIWAN.

EXPECTATIONS OF ECONOMIC AND POLITICAL IMPACT
--------------


5. (C) HSU DESCRIBED HIGH EXPECTATIONS IN TAIWAN INDUSTRY
AND AMONG TAIWAN AUTHORITIES THAT FURTHER OPENING TO PRC

TOURISTS WILL PAY MAJOR ECONOMIC DIVIDENDS TO TAIWAN. HE
NOTED THAT OF 46 INTERNATIONAL HOTELS IN TAIWAN, 36 ARE
UNDERGOING OR PLANNING EXPANSION. HE REPORTED THAT TAIWAN
WAS HAVING TROUBLE REACHING ITS TARGET OF 3.75 MILLION
TOURIST ARRIVALS IN 2006 AND WOULD NEED MAINLAND TOURISTS
TO REACH ITS GOAL OF 5 MILLION ARRIVALS IN 2010. HOWEVER,
HSU ALSO UNDERSCORED THE FACT THAT PREMIER SU TSENG-CHANG
WAS NOT ONLY DRIVEN BY ECONOMIC INTERESTS IN FURTHER
OPENING TAIWAN TO PRC TOURISTS. HE ALSO WANTS TO INCREASE
PEOPLE-TO-PEOPLE CONTACT ACROSS THE STRAIT, HSU SAID.


6. (C) CHANG ARGUED THAT THE PRC WAS SIMILARLY MOTIVATED
BY A DESIRE TO CHANGE TAIWAN ATTITUDES TOWARD THE PRC WITH
MAINLAND TOURISTS. HE OBSERVED THAT MANY TAIWAN TRAVELERS
TO THE PRC HAD SEEN ITS POVERTY. HOWEVER, WEALTHY PRC
TOURISTS TO TAIWAN WOULD PRESENT A DIFFERENT PICTURE OF
THE MAINLAND. ACCORDING TO CHANG, PRC TOURISTS HAVE
ALREADY BEEN EFFECTIVE IN IMPROVING ATTITUDES IN HONG KONG
TOWARD THE PRC.

AGREEMENT BY YEAR'S END
--------------


7. (C) HSU, CHANG, AND YAO ALL AGREED WITH MAC ECONOMIC
DIVISION DIRECTOR FU'S ASSESSMENT THAT AN AGREEMENT ON
TOURISM WOULD LIKELY BE CONCLUDED BY THE END OF THE YEAR.
ALL FOUR MEN, HOWEVER, REFUSED TO SPECULATE ON THE PRECISE
TIMING OF AN AGREEMENT. TVAS CHANG AND TATAS YAO BOTH
COMMENTED THAT IF THE TWO SIDES CANNOT REACH AN AGREEMENT
BY THE END OF THE YEAR, TAIWAN'S ELECTION CYCLE COULD
INTERFERE AND DERAIL THE INITIATIVE, AS CAMPAIGNING FOR
THE 2008 PRESIDENTIAL ELECTION BEGINS.


8. (U) ACCORDING TO MEDIA REPORTS, PRC TAIWAN AFFAIRS
OFFICE DIRECTOR CHEN YUNLIN ON SEPTEMBER 7 CALLED ON
TAIWAN TO MAKE ITS NEW ORGANIZATION FULLY OPERATIONAL. HE
WAS PROBABLY REFERRING TO THE NEED FOR MAC TO FORMALLY
ISSUE PAPERWORK AUTHORIZING IT TO ENGAGE IN CONSULTATIONS
WITH THE MAINLAND. CHEN SAID THAT ONCE THE ORGANIZATION
IS OPERATIONAL, THE PRC WILL ISSUE AN INVITATION TO
CONSULTATIONS.
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