TAIWAN-JAPAN RELATIONS QUITE POSITIVE NOW BUT

C O N F I D E N T I A L AIT TAIPEI 002747

SIPDIS



SIPDIS

E.O. 12958: DECL: 08/14/2031
TAGS: PGOV PREL PBTS JA TW
SUBJECT: TAIWAN-JAPAN RELATIONS QUITE POSITIVE NOW BUT
CONCERNS ABOUT THE FUTURE

REF: TAIPEI 2495

CLASSIFIED BY: AIT DIRECTOR STEPHEN M. YOUNG, REASONS: 1.4 (B/D)


1. (C) SUMMARY: RELATIONS BETWEEN TAIWAN AND JAPAN HAVE
IMPROVED SIGNIFICANTLY UNDER THE CURRENT DPP ADMINISTRATION
BECAUSE OF CONCERNS IN JAPAN ABOUT THE PRC AND THE RISE OF A
NEW GENERATION OF JAPANESE DIET MEMBERS FAVORABLE TO TAIWAN.
SOME OBSERVERS PERCEIVE KMT CHAIRMAN MA YING-JEOU AS
ANTI-JAPANESE AND ARE CONCERNED THAT A RETURN TO POWER BY THE
KMT AFTER THE 2008 PRESIDENTIAL ELECTION COULD LEAD TO A
REGRESSION IN JAPAN-TAIWAN RELATIONS. END SUMMARY.

OVERVIEW OF TAIWAN-JAPAN RELATIONS
--------------


2. (C) RELATIONS BETWEEN TAIWAN AND JAPAN HAVE IMPROVED
SIGNIFICANTLY IN RECENT YEARS, ESPECIALLY SINCE PRESIDENT
CHEN SHUI-BIAN TOOK OFFICE IN 2000, ACCORDING TO JAMES LIAO
OF THE ASSOCIATION OF EAST ASIAN RELATIONS IN THE MINISTRY OF
FOREIGN AFFAIRS (MOFA). THIS IS DUE IN LARGE PART TO GROWING
CONCERNS WITHIN THE DPP AND IN JAPAN OVER THE PRC'S
INCREASING REGIONAL CLOUT AS WELL AS THE RISE OF A NEW
GENERATION OF JAPANESE DIET MEMBERS WHO ARE LESS INTERESTED
IN MAKING AMENDS TO CHINA AND MORE CONCERNED WITH PUTTING THE
INTERESTS OF JAPAN FIRST.


3. (C) HSU CHIEH-LIN OF THE JAPAN RESEARCH INSTITUTE TOLD
AIT THAT TAIWAN'S DECISION LAST YEAR TO INCORPORATE THE
UNOFFICIAL ASSOCIATION OF EAST ASIAN RELATIONS (AN
ORGANIZATION SIMILAR TO TECRO FOR HANDLING TAIWANS RELATIONS
WITH JAPAN) INTO MOFA PROPER SHOWED THAT THE CHEN
ADMINISTRATION IS RAISING THE PROFILE OF RELATIONS WITH
JAPAN. HSU SUGGESTED THAT PERCEIVED STRAINS IN TAIWAN'S
RELATIONS WITH THE UNITED STATES HAVE BEEN ONE FACTOR
MOTIVATING TAIPEI TO SEEK CLOSER TIES WITH JAPAN. HE
ACKNOWLEDGED, HOWEVER, THAT SUPPORT FOR TAIWAN BY JAPAN IS,
FOR THE MOST PART, LIP SERVICE. IF THE UNITED STATES DID NOT
SUPPORT TAIWAN IN THE EVENT OF ARMED HOSTILITIES WITH THE
PRC, IT IS UNLIKELY THAT JAPAN WOULD INVOLVE ITSELF EITHER.


4. (C) ACCORDING TO THE JAPAN INTERCHANGE ASSOCIATION (JIA),
RELATIONS BETWEEN JAPAN AND TAIWAN ARE GOOD OVERALL.
ECONOMIC CHIEF MASAHIKO SUGITA TOLD AIT THAT WHILE THE
JAPANESE PUBLIC HAS LIMITED KNOWLEDGE OF AND IS THEREFORE
AMBIVALENT ABOUT TAIWAN, MOST POLITICIANS AND OFFICIALS HAVE
A FAVORABLE OPINION OF TAIWAN. THEREFORE, DESPITE THE LACK
OF FORMAL DIPLOMATIC TIES, TAIWAN AND JAPAN STILL COORDINATE
EFFECTIVELY THROUGH UNOFFICIAL CHANNELS ON ISSUES SUCH AS
FISHING, TRADE AND INVESTMENT, EXPORT CONTROLS, ENERGY, AND
THE ENVIRONMENT. WHILE TAIWAN WOULD ALSO LIKE TO ESTABLISH
BILATERAL DEFENSE TIES WITH JAPAN, THE JAPANESE GOVERNMENT IS
RELUCTANT TO DO SO BECAUSE OF POSSIBLE REACTIONS FROM THE
PRC, SUGITA CONTINUED. RATHER, JAPAN WOULD PREFER TO HANDLE
ANY MILITARY COORDINATION THROUGH THE FRAMEWORK OF THE
US-JAPAN SECURITY RELATIONSHIP, THOUGH SUGITA ACKNOWLEDGED
THAT THERE IS NO CONSENSUS IN THE JAPANESE GOVERNMENT AS TO
HOW SUCH COORDINATION WOULD TAKE PLACE. (NOTE: THE JIA IS THE
UNOFFICIAL JAPANESE REPRESENTATIVE OFFICE IN TAIWAN. END
NOTE.)

MA'S TRIP TO JAPAN
--------------


5. (C) WHILE JAPAN'S RELATIONS WITH THE RULING DEMOCRATIC
PROGRESSIVE PARTY (DPP) ARE GOOD, ITS RELATIONS WITH THE
OPPOSITION KUOMINTANG (KMT) ARE ALMOST NONEXISTENT. THIS
ABSENCE OF RELATIONS IS ONE REASON WHY KMT CHAIRMAN (AND
TAIPEI MAYOR) MA YING-JEOU'S JULY VISIT TO JAPAN DID NOT GO
AS SMOOTHLY AS INTENDED (SEE REFTEL),ACCORDING TO MOFAS
LIAO. MOST JAPANESE SEE THE KMT -- AND MA IN PARTICULAR --
AS BEING ANTI-JAPAN AND PRO-UNIFICATION WITH MAINLAND CHINA.
IN AN EFFORT TO CHANGE NEGATIVE JAPANESE PERCEPTIONS, MA
STRESSED DURING HIS VISIT THAT THE KMT IS NOT ANTI-JAPAN AND
THAT WHILE THE KMT DOES NOT OPPOSE UNIFICATION WITH THE PRC,
UNIFICATION WOULD REQUIRE BOTH DEMOCRATIZATION OF THE PRC AND
THE APPROVAL OF THE PEOPLE OF TAIWAN.


6. (C) SOME KMT LEGISLATORS SUGGESTED TO AIT THAT MA'S TRIP
MADE SOME PROGRESS IN FOSTERING UNDERSTANDING BETWEEN JAPAN
AND THE KMT. THAT WAS ALSO, NOT SURPRISINGLY, THE KMT'S
PUBLIC LINE. JIA'S SUGITA, HOWEVER, COUNTERED THAT MA'S TRIP

DID NOT IMPROVE JAPANESE ATTITUDES TOWARDS THE KMT, IN PART
BECAUSE MA'S VISIT WENT LARGELY UNNOTICED BY THE JAPANESE
PUBLIC, WHOSE ATTENTION WAS FOCUSED ON THE NORTH KOREAN
MISSILE TESTS. FURTHERMORE, MA'S STATEMENTS ON THE SENKAKU
ISLANDS (DIAOYUTAI) DISPUTE AND PM KOIZUMI'S VISITS TO THE
YASUKUNI SHRINE ONLY REINFORCED PERCEPTIONS OF HIM AS BEING
ANTI-JAPAN. JIAS DIRECTOR, RETIRED AMBASSADOR TADASHI
IKEDA, TOLD AIT DIRECTOR YOUNG AS WELL THAT HIS GOVERNMENT
AND PUBLIC WAS UNDERWHELMED BY MA'S DISCUSSION OF DEFENSE
ISSUES, AMONG OTHER THINGS.

WRINKLES IN TAIWAN-JAPAN RELATIONS
--------------


7. (C) FISHING DISPUTES IN THE OVERLAPPING EXCLUSIVE
ECONOMIC ZONE (EEZ) CLAIM AREAS BETWEEN TAIWAN AND JAPAN ARE
THE ONLY REAL POINT OF CONTENTION IN TAIWAN-JAPAN RELATIONS,
MOFA'S LIAO TOLD AIT. TAIWAN'S PROXIMITY TO THE RYUKYU
ISLANDS MEANS THAT FISHERMEN OPERATING OUT OF ILAN COUNTY IN
NORTHEAST TAIWAN FIND THEMSELVES IN THE JAPANESE-CLAIMED EEZ
JUST A FEW KILOMETERS OFF THE TAIWAN COAST. TAIWAN HAS
PROPOSED ADJUSTING THE MARITIME BORDER TO TAKE ACCOUNT OF
TAIWAN'S LARGER POPULATION, THOUGH NO AGREEMENT HAS YET BEEN
REACHED ON THIS PROPOSAL.


8. (C) BOTH LIAO AND SUGITA SEPARATELY AGREED THAT WHILE
KOIZUMI'S VISITS TO THE YASUKUNI SHRINE HAVE CAUSED
CONSIDERABLE FRICTION WITH CHINA AND SOME OTHER COUNTRIES IN
THE REGION, THEY ARE A NON-ISSUE WITH THE DPP ADMINISTRATION,
WHOSE TAIWANESE SUPPORTERS TEND TO BE PRO-JAPANESE. DPP
POLLING CENTER DIRECTOR CHANG YU-FEN POINTED OUT THAT TO THIS
DAY TAIWAN'S COLONIAL EXPERIENCE UNDER JAPAN AFFECTS
ATTITUDES IN TAIWAN. AS AN EXAMPLE, SHE POINTED OUT THAT KMT
LEGISLATIVE SPEAKER WANG JIN-PYNG, A NATIVE TAIWANESE,
PREFERS WATCHING BASEBALL, WHICH WAS BROUGHT TO TAIWAN BY THE
JAPANESE AND IS POPULAR AMONG YOUNG TAIWANESE, WHILE MA
YING-JEOU, A MAINLANDER, PREFERS WATCHING BASKETBALL, THE
SPORT OF CHOICE FOR MAINLANDERS.

EFFECTS OF UPCOMING ELECTIONS IN JAPAN AND TAIWAN
-------------- --------------


9. (C) SUGITA PREDICTED THAT THE SEPTEMBER ELECTION FOR THE
LIBERAL DEMOCRATIC PARTY (LDP) PRESIDENCY IN JAPAN, WHICH
WILL DETERMINE THE SUCCESSOR TO PM KOIZUMI, WILL NOT AFFECT
JAPAN-TAIWAN RELATIONS. BOTH CHIEF CABINET SECRETARY SHINZO
ABE AND FOREIGN MINISTER TARO ASO, THE CURRENT FRONT-RUNNERS
IN LDP POLLS, SHARE PM KOIZUMIS INTEREST IN FURTHERING
JAPAN-TAIWAN RELATIONS, HE EXPLAINED.


10. (C) A VICTORY BY KMT CHAIRMAN MA YING-JEOU IN THE 2008
TAIWAN PRESIDENTIAL ELECTION COULD STRAIN JAPAN-TAIWAN
RELATIONS FOR TWO REASONS, SUGITA SUGGESTED. WHILE JAPAN HAS
A CLOSE RELATIONSHIP WITH THE DPP, IT DOES NOT HAVE A CLOSE
RELATIONSHIP WITH THE KMT DUE IN LARGE PART TO A DEARTH OF
JAPAN SPECIALISTS AND JAPANESE-SPEAKERS IN THE KMT. (NOTE: OF
COURSE, THE HISTORICAL LEGACY OF JAPAN'S INVASION OF
NATIONALIST CHINA IN THE 1930S IS ALSO A FACTOR, THOUGH
SUGITA DID NOT MENTION THIS. END NOTE.) MOREOVER, THE KMT
MAINTAINS ITS RELATIVELY HARD-LINE TRADITIONAL POSITIONS ON
DISPUTES SUCH AS ISLAND CLAIMS AND HISTORICAL ISSUES SUCH AS
THE YASUKUNI VISITS, WHICH COULD SIGNIFICANTLY HAMPER
NEGOTIATION ON OTHER AREAS OF JAPAN-TAIWAN RELATIONS.
RELATIONS WITH JAPAN UNDER FORMER KMT PRESIDENT LEE TENG-HUI
BENEFITED FROM LEE'S DEEP AFFECTION FOR JAPAN, NURTURED IN
PART BY HIS STUDIES AT KYOTO UNIVERSITY DURING THE COLONIAL
PERIOD.

COMMENT
--------------


11. (C) ALL OF THE POLITICIANS, OFFICIALS, AND ACADEMICS
WITH WHOM AIT SPOKE PAINTED A RELATIVELY POSITIVE PICTURE OF
CURRENT RELATIONS BETWEEN JAPAN AND TAIWAN, WHICH ARE NOT
BURDENED BY THE STANDARD STICKING POINTS THAT SOUR RELATIONS
BETWEEN JAPAN AND CHINA AND SOME OTHER COUNTRIES IN THE
REGION. THE POSSIBLE RETURN TO POWER IN 2008 BY THE KMT
COULD PRESENT CHALLENGES TO CLOSER COOPERATION BETWEEN TAIWAN
AND JAPAN, BECAUSE WHILE THE DPP SEES JAPAN AS A NATURAL ALLY
AGAINST THE PRC, THE KMT COULD KEEP A GREATER DISTANCE FROM
JAPAN IN ORDER TO PURSUE CLOSER TIES WITH THE MAINLAND.
HOWEVER, KMT CHAIRMAN MA YING-JEOU, WHO HAS STRESSED THAT HE

IS NOT ANTI-JAPANESE AS SOME HAVE ASSERTED, MAY HAVE ONE MORE
OPPORTUNITY TO ALTER JAPANESE PERCEPTIONS OF HIM AND THE KMT
BEFORE HIS TERM AS TAIPEI MAYOR EXPIRES, AS HE HAS EXPRESSED
INTEREST IN RETURNING TO JAPAN TO COMPLETE HIS JULY VISIT,
WHICH WAS CUT SHORT BECAUSE OF TROPICAL STORM BILIS.


12. (U) THIS CABLE WAS DRAFTED BY POL INTERN EUGENE CHEN.
YOUNG