TAIWAN'S LOSS OF DIPLOMATIC PARTNER CHAD HEIGHTENS

C O N F I D E N T I A L AIT TAIPEI 002652

SIPDIS





SIPDIS

E.O. 12958: DECL: 08/07/2031
TAGS: PGOV TW CD
SUBJECT: TAIWAN'S LOSS OF DIPLOMATIC PARTNER CHAD HEIGHTENS
ANXIETY OVER SHRINKING INTERNATIONAL SPACE


CLASSIFIED BY: AIT DIRECTOR STEPHEN M. YOUNG, REASONS: 1.4 (B/D)


1. (SBU) IN A LATE-NIGHT PRESS BRIEFING ON SATURDAY AUGUST 5
TAIWAN ANNOUNCED THAT IT WAS SEVERING DIPLOMATIC RELATIONS
WITH CHAD AFTER HAVING LEARNED THAT CHAD'S FOREIGN MINISTER
WAS IN BEIJING TO ESTABLISH RELATIONS WITH THE PRC. THE
ANNOUNCEMENT WAS MADE LESS THAN A DAY BEFORE PREMIER SU
TSENG-CHANG'S PLANNED DEPARTURE FOR CHAD AS PRESIDENT CHENS

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SPECIAL ENVOY TO THE INAUGURATION OF CHADS PRESIDENT.
FOREIGN MINISTER JAMES HUANG ON SUNDAY AUGUST 6 GAVE A VERY
DETAILED BRIEFING TO THE PRESS LAYING OUT THE GOVERNMENT'S
EFFORTS TO MAINTAIN DIPLOMATIC RELATIONS WITH CHAD, INCLUDING
THREE VISITS BY THE FOREIGN MINISTER AND ONE BY PRESIDENT
CHEN OVER THE PAST YEAR.


2. (C) PRESIDENTIAL OFFICE SECRETARY-GENERAL MARK CHEN TOLD
THE DIRECTOR ON AUGUST 7 THAT THE DEVELOPMENT WAS A "BODY
BLOW" TO THE ALREADY WEAKENED ADMINISTRATION OF PRESIDENT
CHEN. MARK CHEN STRESSED THAT BEIJING HAD PRESSURED CHAD INTO
MAKING THE SWITCH, USING THREATS OF CONTINUING SUPPORT TO THE
REBELS IN CHAD AS LEVERAGE, COUPLED WITH PROMISES TO END THE
MILITARY CHALLENGE TO THE GOVERNMENT IF IT RECOGNIZED THE
PRC. MOFA DIRECTOR-GENERAL FOR AFRICAN AFFAIRS LEE
CHEN-HSIUNG TOLD AIT THAT CHINA, IN ADDITION TO AGREEING TO
STOP SUPPLYING REBELS WITH WEAPONS THROUGH SUDAN, ALSO LURED
CHAD BY PROMISING TO SUPPORT THE DEVELOPMENT OF OIL
RESOURCES.


3. (C) THE SUDDEN MOVE TO DERECOGNITION BY CHAD HAS BEEN
WIDELY INTERPRETED BY POLITICAL OBSERVERS HERE AS AN EFFORT
BY THE PRC TO HUMILIATE TAIWAN AND SPECIFICALLY PREMIER SU.
MAINLAND AFFAIRS COUNCIL CHAIRMAN JOSEPH WU CITED THE
DERECOGNITION AS AN EXAMPLE OF BEIJING'S "BARBARIC BEHAVIOR"
AND CALLED ON THE PUBLIC TO STOP HARBORING ANY ILLUSIONS OF
THE PRC'S INTENTIONS TOWARD TAIWAN. HE FURTHER SAID THE MAC
WOULD NOT ALLOW BEJING'S TAIWAN AFFAIRS OFFICE DIRECTOR CHEN
YUNLIN TO VISIT THE ISLAND UNLESS HE WAS COMING TO APOLOGIZE
TO THE PEOPLE OF TAIWAN. DG LEE CHARACTERIZED CHAD'S SUDDEN
MOVE AS "DISRESPECTFUL," BUT NEVERTHELESS SAID TAIWAN WOULD
CONTINUE TO WORK TO TRY TO RESTORE RELATIONS IF THE
OPPORTUNITY PRESENTED ITSELF IN THE FUTURE.


4. (C) WITH THE LOSS OF CHAD, TAIWAN NOW HAS 24 DIPLOMATIC
PARTNERS, DOWN FROM 29 WHEN CHEN TOOK OFFICE IN 2000. MOFA
OFFICIALS, WHO ARE CONCERNED THAT THE NUMBER WILL CONTINUE TO
DECLINE, ARE MOST WORRIED THAT THE NEXT LOSS COULD BE
NICARAGUA, WHICH THEY EXPECT WILL SWITCH RECOGNITION IF
SANDANISTA DANIEL ORTEGA IS ELECTED PRESIDENT IN NOVEMBER.

COMMENT
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5. (C) TAIWAN POLITICIANS AND COMMENTATORS ACROSS THE
SPECTRUM HAVE INVESTED GREAT SIGNIFICANCE TO MAINTAINING A
CORE OF DIPLOMATIC PARTNERS AS A SIGN OF TAIWAN'S
INCREASINGLY EMBATTLED SOVEREIGNTY. COMING ON THE HEELS OF
DOMESTIC SCANDALS, THE LOSS OF CHAD HAS ALREADY BEEN SEIZED
BY CHEN SHUI-BIAN'S PAN-BLUE CRITICS AS ANOTHER SIGN HE IS
UNFIT TO FILL THE OFFICE OF PRESIDENCY. THESE FACTORS COULD
MAKE IT HARDER FOR PREMIER SU TO PUSH GRADUAL CROSS-STRAIT
ECONOMIC OPENING, AND WILL UNDOUBTEDLY HARDEN THE TONE OF THE
GOVERNMENT'S POLICY TOWARD BEIJING IN THE COMING WEEKS.
WHETHER IT WILL ALSO LEAD TO OTHER REACTIVE STEPS INVOLVING
THE CROSS-STRAIT EQUATION REMAINS TO BE SEEN. THE MORE
EMBATTLED CHEN FEELS, THE LIKELIER HELL BE TO PLAY TO HIS
DEEP GREEN CORE CONSTITUENCY, SOMETHING WE WILL TRY TO
DISCOURAGE AS CONTRARY TO US REGIONAL INTERESTS TO THE EXTENT
IT CROSSES PRC RED LINES ON INDEPENDENCE.
YOUNG