TAIWAN'S LOSS OF DIPLOMATIC PARTNER CHAD HEIGHTENS

C O N F I D E N T I A L AIT TAIPEI 002652 SIPDIS SIPDIS E.O. 12958: DECL: 08/07/2031 TAGS: PGOV TW CD SUBJECT: TAIWAN'S LOSS OF DIPLOMATIC PARTNER CHAD HEIGHTENS ANXIETY OVER SHRINKING INTERNATIONAL SPACE CLASSIFIED BY: AIT DIRECTOR STEPHEN M. YOUNG, REASONS: 1.4 (B/D) ¶1. (SBU) IN A LATE-NIGHT PRESS BRIEFING ON SATURDAY AUGUST 5 TAIWAN ANNOUNCED THAT IT WAS SEVERING DIPLOMATIC RELATIONS WITH CHAD AFTER HAVING LEARNED THAT CHAD'S FOREIGN MINISTER WAS IN BEIJING TO ESTABLISH RELATIONS WITH THE PRC. THE ANNOUNCEMENT WAS MADE LESS THAN A DAY BEFORE PREMIER SU TSENG-CHANG'S PLANNED DEPARTURE FOR CHAD AS PRESIDENT CHENS SIPDIS SPECIAL ENVOY TO THE INAUGURATION OF CHADS PRESIDENT. FOREIGN MINISTER JAMES HUANG ON SUNDAY AUGUST 6 GAVE A VERY DETAILED BRIEFING TO THE PRESS LAYING OUT THE GOVERNMENT'S EFFORTS TO MAINTAIN DIPLOMATIC RELATIONS WITH CHAD, INCLUDING THREE VISITS BY THE FOREIGN MINISTER AND ONE BY PRESIDENT CHEN OVER THE PAST YEAR. ¶2. (C) PRESIDENTIAL OFFICE SECRETARY-GENERAL MARK CHEN TOLD THE DIRECTOR ON AUGUST 7 THAT THE DEVELOPMENT WAS A "BODY BLOW" TO THE ALREADY WEAKENED ADMINISTRATION OF PRESIDENT CHEN. MARK CHEN STRESSED THAT BEIJING HAD PRESSURED CHAD INTO MAKING THE SWITCH, USING THREATS OF CONTINUING SUPPORT TO THE REBELS IN CHAD AS LEVERAGE, COUPLED WITH PROMISES TO END THE MILITARY CHALLENGE TO THE GOVERNMENT IF IT RECOGNIZED THE PRC. MOFA DIRECTOR-GENERAL FOR AFRICAN AFFAIRS LEE CHEN-HSIUNG TOLD AIT THAT CHINA, IN ADDITION TO AGREEING TO STOP SUPPLYING REBELS WITH WEAPONS THROUGH SUDAN, ALSO LURED CHAD BY PROMISING TO SUPPORT THE DEVELOPMENT OF OIL RESOURCES. ¶3. (C) THE SUDDEN MOVE TO DERECOGNITION BY CHAD HAS BEEN WIDELY INTERPRETED BY POLITICAL OBSERVERS HERE AS AN EFFORT BY THE PRC TO HUMILIATE TAIWAN AND SPECIFICALLY PREMIER SU. MAINLAND AFFAIRS COUNCIL CHAIRMAN JOSEPH WU CITED THE DERECOGNITION AS AN EXAMPLE OF BEIJING'S "BARBARIC BEHAVIOR" AND CALLED ON THE PUBLIC TO STOP HARBORING ANY ILLUSIONS OF THE PRC'S INTENTIONS TOWARD TAIWAN. HE FURTHER SAID THE MAC WOULD NOT ALLOW BEJING'S TAIWAN AFFAIRS OFFICE DIRECTOR CHEN YUNLIN TO VISIT THE ISLAND UNLESS HE WAS COMING TO APOLOGIZE TO THE PEOPLE OF TAIWAN. DG LEE CHARACTERIZED CHAD'S SUDDEN MOVE AS "DISRESPECTFUL," BUT NEVERTHELESS SAID TAIWAN WOULD CONTINUE TO WORK TO TRY TO RESTORE RELATIONS IF THE OPPORTUNITY PRESENTED ITSELF IN THE FUTURE. ¶4. (C) WITH THE LOSS OF CHAD, TAIWAN NOW HAS 24 DIPLOMATIC PARTNERS, DOWN FROM 29 WHEN CHEN TOOK OFFICE IN 2000. MOFA OFFICIALS, WHO ARE CONCERNED THAT THE NUMBER WILL CONTINUE TO DECLINE, ARE MOST WORRIED THAT THE NEXT LOSS COULD BE NICARAGUA, WHICH THEY EXPECT WILL SWITCH RECOGNITION IF SANDANISTA DANIEL ORTEGA IS ELECTED PRESIDENT IN NOVEMBER. COMMENT -------------- ¶5. (C) TAIWAN POLITICIANS AND COMMENTATORS ACROSS THE SPECTRUM HAVE INVESTED GREAT SIGNIFICANCE TO MAINTAINING A CORE OF DIPLOMATIC PARTNERS AS A SIGN OF TAIWAN'S INCREASINGLY EMBATTLED SOVEREIGNTY. COMING ON THE HEELS OF DOMESTIC SCANDALS, THE LOSS OF CHAD HAS ALREADY BEEN SEIZED BY CHEN SHUI-BIAN'S PAN-BLUE CRITICS AS ANOTHER SIGN HE IS UNFIT TO FILL THE OFFICE OF PRESIDENCY. THESE FACTORS COULD MAKE IT HARDER FOR PREMIER SU TO PUSH GRADUAL CROSS-STRAIT ECONOMIC OPENING, AND WILL UNDOUBTEDLY HARDEN THE TONE OF THE GOVERNMENT'S POLICY TOWARD BEIJING IN THE COMING WEEKS. WHETHER IT WILL ALSO LEAD TO OTHER REACTIVE STEPS INVOLVING THE CROSS-STRAIT EQUATION REMAINS TO BE SEEN. THE MORE EMBATTLED CHEN FEELS, THE LIKELIER HELL BE TO PLAY TO HIS DEEP GREEN CORE CONSTITUENCY, SOMETHING WE WILL TRY TO DISCOURAGE AS CONTRARY TO US REGIONAL INTERESTS TO THE EXTENT IT CROSSES PRC RED LINES ON INDEPENDENCE. YOUNG