FORMER DPP CHAIRMAN LIN I-HSIUNG ON THE DPP AND

C O N F I D E N T I A L AIT TAIPEI 002543

SIPDIS




SIPDIS

E.O. 12958: DECL: 07/27/2031
TAGS: PGOV TW
SUBJECT: FORMER DPP CHAIRMAN LIN I-HSIUNG ON THE DPP AND
TAIWAN LEADERS, PAST, PRESENT, AND FUTURE


CLASSIFIED BY: AIT DIRECTOR STEPHEN M. YOUNG, REASONS: 1.4 (B/D)


1. (C) SUMMARY: FORMER DPP CHAIRMAN LIN I-HSIUNG TOLD THE
DIRECTOR ON JULY 26 THAT PRESIDENT CHEN AND THE DPP HAD
SQUANDERED THEIR OPPORTUNITY AND DISAPPOINTED THE PEOPLE OF
TAIWAN BY NOT CARRYING THROUGH ON THEIR PROGRAM OF
DEMOCRATIZATION AND LOCALIZATION. CHEN IS ISOLATED AND WILL
BE UNABLE TO MAKE MAJOR MOVES IN THE REMAINING TWO YEARS OF
HIS TERM, LIN PREDICTED. THE FORMER DPP CHAIRMAN EXPRESSED
CONCERN THAT IF THE KMT COMES BACK INTO POWER IN 2008, A
STRONG UNIFICATIONIST LEADER, PRESUMABLY A REFERENCE TO KMT
CHAIRMAN MA YING-JEOU, MIGHT SEEK UNIFICATION TO BECOME A
"GREAT HERO" IN CHINESE HISTORY. END SUMMARY.


2. (C) FORMER DEMOCRATIC PROGRESSIVE PARTY (DPP) CHAIRMAN
LIN I-HSIUNG, WHO LEFT THE PARTY LAST JANUARY, TOLD THE
DIRECTOR ON JULY 26 THAT THE DPP'S PROBLEM IS THAT IT HAS
GRADUALLY LOST ITS CHARACTER AS THE "LOCALIZATION (BENTU)"
PARTY. WHILE THE DPP ORIGINALLY REPRESENTED BOTH
DEMOCRATIZATION AND LOCALIZATION, RECENTLY IT HAS NOT FOCUSED
ON THESE ISSUES. DPP LEADERS DO NOT SEEM TO CARE ABOUT BASIC
PRINCIPLES AND HAVE DONE LITTLE, FOR EXAMPLE, TO PROMOTE
DEMOCRATIC EDUCATION.


3. (C) THE DPP HAS NOT MADE GOOD USE OF ITS OPPORTUNITY
SINCE COMING TO POWER SIX YEARS AGO, LIN CONTINUED. THE
PEOPLE OF TAIWAN, REGARDLESS OF WHETHER THEY ARE DPP OR
KUOMINTANG (KMT) SUPPORTERS, ARE DISAPPOINTED IN THE
PERFORMANCE OF THE DPP. ASKED ABOUT THE RECENT NATIONAL
PARTY CONGRESS, LIN SAID HE HOPED THE DPP WOULD BE ABLE TO
REFORM. HOWEVER, HE NOTED, THE ABOLITION OF PARTY FACTIONS
BY THE PARTY CONGRESS WAS ESSENTIALLY A NEGATIVE MOVE. IN
ORDER TO INCREASE UNITY, THE PARTY NEEDS TO TAKE CONCRETE
POSITIVE AND NOT JUST NEGATIVE ACTIONS.

CHEN A TALKER, NOT A DOER
--------------


4. (C) PRESIDENT CHEN SHUI-BIAN IS VERY SMART, LIN
ACKNOWLEDGED. HOWEVER, CHEN HAS USED HIS CALLS FOR
INDEPENDENCE OR LOCALIZATION AS POLITICAL CAMPAIGN PLOYS BUT
HE HAS NOT REALLY PURSUED SUCH GOALS. IN ADDITION, LIN SAID,
CHEN IS NOT RESOLUTE AND DOES NOT HAVE A HIGH THRESHOLD FOR
PRESSURE. THEREFORE HE MAKES DECISIONS ON THE BASIS OF
WHATEVER PRESSURE HE IS UNDER AT THE TIME. LIN DISAGREED
WITH THE NOTION THAT CORRUPTION ALLEGATIONS AGAINST THOSE
CLOSE TO CHEN WERE THE PRESIDENTS MAJOR PROBLEM. IF CHEN
HAD DONE ENOUGH ON DEMOCRACY AND LOCALIZATION, LIN ARGUED,
THE PEOPLE WOULD HAVE FORGIVEN HIM FOR THE CORRUPTION ISSUE.


5. (C) CHEN IS ISOLATED NOW AND OTHERS DO NOT WANT TO BE
IDENTIFIED WITH HIM, LIN NOTED. THEREFORE, HE SUGGESTED,
CHEN IS UNLIKELY TO TRY TO MAKE ANY MAJOR MOVES OVER THE NEXT
TWO YEARS. CHEN IS JUST TALKING ABOUT THE CONSTITUTION BUT
CANNOT REALLY DO ANYTHING. SOME PEOPLE, SUCH AS CHEN, CALL
FOR CONSTITUTIONAL CHANGES FOR POLITICAL PURPOSES AND TO
PLEASE THEIR SUPPORTERS, BUT THEY DO NOT ACTUALLY WANT
CHANGES. LIN ADDED THAT IN FACT THE CURRENT CONSTITUTION
DOES NEED SOME CHANGES, SUCH AS CLEARLY ESTABLISHING EITHER A
CABINET OR A PRESIDENTIAL SYSTEM, AND SUCH CHANGES CAN BE
DISCUSSED WITH THE KMT IN A NON-CONFRONTATIONAL WAY.

CONCERN ABOUT MA YING-JEOU'S UNIFICATION PROCLIVITIES
-------------- --------------


6. (C) LIN EXPRESSED CONCERN THAT IF THE KMT RETURNS TO
POWER IN 2008, ITS POLICY TOWARD CHINA WILL BE VERY DIFFERENT
THAN THAT OF THE DPP. WHILE MOST MAINLANDERS BELIEVE TAIWAN
IS PART OF CHINA, THEY DO NOT FAVOR UNIFICATION NOW. THE
SUPPORTERS OF LOCALIZATION CAN WORK WITH THIS GROUP, WHO
UNDERSTAND THE NEED TO PROTECT TAIWAN'S INTERESTS AND
DEMOCRACY. HOWEVER, AMONG THE MAINLANDERS THERE IS A MUCH
SMALLER GROUP, PERHAPS ONE TO TWO PERCENT OF TAIWAN'S TOTAL
POPULATION, WHO ARE EXTREME UNIFICATIONISTS. LIN SAID HE
FEARED THAT A LEADER WITH STRONG UNIFICATIONIST VIEWS MIGHT
SELL OUT THE PEOPLE OF TAIWAN, SEEKING TO BECOME A GREAT HERO
IN CHINESE HISTORY BY ACHIEVING UNIFICATION. KMT CHAIRMAN MA
YING-JEOU'S FATHER WAS A STRONG PROPONENT OF UNIFICATION, AND
UNIFICATION IS "IN MA'S BONES." ALTHOUGH MA STUDIED IN THE
U.S., HE HAD NO IDEA OF HUMAN RIGHTS OR DEMOCRACY IN TAIWAN,
AND REGULARLY OPPOSED DEMOCRATIC DEVELOPMENTS IN TAIWAN,
ACCORDING TO LIN.


LEE TENG-HUI A BORN POLITICIAN TRYING TO MAINTAIN INFLUENCE
-------------- --------------


7. (C) LIN SAID FORMER PRESIDENT LEE TENG-HUI WAS A
SUCCESSFUL, TRADITIONAL TAIWANESE INTELLECTUAL, WHO HAD
ENJOYED A SMOOTH RISE THROUGH ACADEMIA, THE BUREAUCRACY, AND
OFFICIALDOM. HE WAS A SMART AUTHORITARIAN LEADER, WHO DID
NOT BLOCK THE DEVELOPMENT OF DEMOCRACY. THE TAIWAN
SOLIDARITY UNION (TSU) IS A VERY SMALL PARTY OF EXTREME
LOCALIZATION POLITICIANS, WHOM NEITHER THE KMT NOR DPP
WANTED. AFTER STEPPING DOWN AS PRESIDENT, LEE ASSUMED
LEADERSHIP OF THE EXTREME LOCALIZATION SUPPORTERS WHO FAVOR
TAIWAN INDEPENDENCE AND A NEW CONSTITUTION, AND HE GATHERED
THEM TOGETHER IN THE TSU TO MAINTAIN HIS INFLUENCE SO THAT
HE COULD "BARGAIN" WITH CHEN SHUI-BIAN.

COMMENT
--------------


8. (C) LIN I-HSIUNG IS WIDELY RESPECTED FOR HIS INTEGRITY
AND IDEALISM, AND FOR HIS SERENITY IN THE FACE OF PERSONAL
TRAGEDY. WHILE JAILED FOR POLITICAL REASONS IN 1980, LIN'S
MOTHER AND TWO OF HIS YOUNG DAUGHTERS WERE MURDERED IN WHAT
IS BELIEVED TO HAVE BEEN A POLITICAL KILLING THAT HAS NEVER
BEEN SOLVED. THOUGH PLAYING A KEY ROLE IN A NUMBER OF GREEN
CAUSES OVER THE YEARS, INCLUDING CAMPAIGNS AGAINST NUCLEAR
POWER AND TO REDUCE THE SIZE OF THE LEGISLATURE, HE HAS
ALWAYS BEEN SOMEWHAT OF A LONER. HIS DEPARTURE FROM THE DPP
LAST JANUARY REFLECTED HIS FRUSTRATION AND DISAPPOINTMENT
WITH PARTY LEADERS. LIN CLEARLY HAS HIS OPINIONS BUT HE HAS
STAYED OUT OF THE FRAY AND NOT ALLOWED HIMSELF TO BE
MANIPULATED, FOR EXAMPLE, BY THOSE CALLING FOR PRESIDENT CHEN
TO STEP DOWN.

YOUNG