PRESIDENT CHEN DEFENDS HIMSELF AGAINST RECALL

C O N F I D E N T I A L AIT TAIPEI 002138 SIPDIS SIPDIS E.O. 12958: DECL: 06/21/2031 TAGS: PGOV PREL TW SUBJECT: PRESIDENT CHEN DEFENDS HIMSELF AGAINST RECALL EFFORT Classified By: AIT Acting Director David J. Keegan, Reasons: 1.4 (b/d) ¶1. (C) Summary: President Chen presented a spirited defense against the Pan-Blue recall effort in a two-hour televised "report to the people" on June 20. Chen's speech, delivered 90 percent in Taiwanese, was intended to shore up support among the Pan-Green base rather than appeal to swing voters. Chen's answers to scandal allegations against First Lady Wu Shu-chen were very carefully parsed and will not lay the allegations to rest. Chen's speech is unlikely to change many minds here, and public support for the President will probably continue to be low. However, the Pan-Blue does not have the votes to pass its recall motion on June 27, and public opposition to the Pan-Blue recall movement is increasing. This evening (June 21),Ma will rebut President Chen's presentation, arguing that there are inconsistencies in Chen's current and previous statements about specific scandal allegations involving First Lady Wu Shu-chen. End Summary. Appealing to the Base -------------- ¶2. (SBU) Responding to the opposition's effort to recall him, President Chen Shui-bian on June 20 offered a spirited defense against the Pan-Blue's ten charges in a prime-time two-hour televised "report to the people." (Note: The Chinese text of Chen's speech is on the Presidential Office website (www.president.gov.tw). We have not seen an English translation. End Note.) Chen spoke from a large room in the Presidential Office Building, seated at a table, flanked by Presidential Office (PO) Secretary General Mark Chen and Deputy Secretary General Cho Jung-tai, who introduced the President. On the wall behind Chen was a large ROC flag, a picture of Sun Yat-sen, and in green Chinese calligraphy the words "Report to the People." There was an audience of journalists, who were not allowed to ask questions, seated at round tables. ¶3. (SBU) Chen spoke almost entirely in Taiwanese, an indication that he was appealing for support primarily from his Pan-Green base. A lawyer himself, Chen's "report to the people" sounded very much like the concluding summation of a defense attorney in a trial. Most of Chen's speech was a point-by-point rebuttal of each of the ten charges laid out against him in the Pan-Blue recall motion. Most of the recall charges were political in nature, accusing the President, for example, of making inappropriate personnel appointments and pursuing policies that brought economic instability and ethnic tension, damaged relations with the U.S., and caused cross-Strait tension. Chen, who thrives on political rhetoric, was very much in his element addressing such issues. In addition to arguing that some charges did not merit recall and to providing evidence to refute various charges, he also attacked the Kuomintang's credibility by citing examples of its past offenses. Careful Response to Corruption Charges -------------- ¶4. (SBU) The most damaging charge against Chen and the one that has attracted the greatest public concern by far is that the President has allowed his family members, relatives, and close advisors to engage in graft and corruption. Chen parsed his words very carefully in responding to specific allegations against First Lady Wu Shu-chen over her acceptance of Sogo Department Store gift certificates and an unrelated possible meeting between her and a political donor. While saying more than he had said previously, Chen's statements will not lay these cases to rest. Emotional Close -------------- ¶5. (SBU) Toward the end of his speech, Chen turned emotional, saying he had become a target of opposition hatred and that he would be willing to sacrifice himself for Taiwan if that would restore social harmony. Chen stressed his long public service career and said that his fate was in the LY and the 23 million people of Taiwan. Responding to Ma's warning that he "would die an ugly death," Chen said that "if making me die an ugly death is necessary to ease resentment, I am willing, I am willing to sacrifice myself for Taiwan. Just pull the trigger." Mixed Response -------------- ¶6. (C) DPP Legislator Shen Fa-hui told AIT that during a DPP LY caucus meeting the morning of June 21 following Chen's speech, hard-line voices calling for confrontation with the Pan-Blue over its recall effort were noticeably stronger. According to the legislator, most of the DPP legislators were not concerned with the specifics of Chen's response to the scandal allegations. Speaking personally, however, Shen said that he did not believe Chen had given a clear response to the allegations. ¶7. (C) DPP Legislator Lin Cho-shui suggested to AIT that Chen's intention was not to answer questions that have been raised but to strengthen his support from the Pan-Green base. Chen was not aiming at swing voters. They will not support Chen but they are increasingly opposed to the recall movement, believing the Pan-Blue has gone too far. Lin pointed out that according to public opinion polling, the number of recall opponents is on the rise and far exceeds the number of Chen supporters. Chen's speech will have little effect on opposition to the recall drive, he predicted. ¶8. (C) The Legislative Yuan (LY) is heading to a showdown vote on the recall motion on June 27. While the Pan-Blue does not have the two-thirds LY majority that it would need to pass the motion, the sense of Blue-Green confrontation is increasing. Largely because of this sense of confrontation, Pan-Green politicians are rallying strongly behind Chen following his speech. The Pan-Blue has been predictably negative about Chen's speech. Tonight's Drama -------------- ¶9. (C) Tonight, KMT Chairman Ma Ying-jeou will deliver a formal rebuttal to Chen in a prime-time televised speech. Ma is expected to speak for thirty minutes and then respond to media questions. KMT Legislator Joanna Lei, who helped Ma prepare his speech, told AIT that Ma will highlight inconsistencies between Chen's current and previous statements about scandal allegations involving First Lady Wu Shu-chen. Ma will remind the public of Chen's earlier promise to step down if it were proven that any member of the first family had accepted Sogo gift certificates from four key players in a buyout fight. Chen qualified this statement in his speech last night when he said his promise applied only to gift certificates received "directly" from one of the four key players. Lei said Ma will also raise discrepancies in previous and current statements by the Taiwan First Family responding to allegations about contributions from a political donor. KEEGAN