MEDIA REACTION: U.S.-TAIWAN RELATIONS

UNCLAS AIT TAIPEI 002005 SIPDIS DEPARTMENT FOR INR/R/MR, EAP/TC, EAP/PA, EAP/PD - ERIC BARBORIAK DEPARTMENT PASS AIT/WASHINGTON SIPDIS E.O. 12958: N/A TAGS: OPRC KMDR KPAO TW SUBJECT: MEDIA REACTION: U.S.-TAIWAN RELATIONS ¶1. Summary: Taiwan's major Chinese-language dailies focused coverage June 10-12 on the pan-Blue and pan-Green camps' discussion Monday of the agenda for an extra legislative session; the pan-Blue camp's rally in Taipei Saturday calling for President Chen Shui-bian to step down; AIT Chairman Raymond Burghardt's visit to Taiwan; the havoc caused by heavy rain in central and southern Taiwan; Vice President Annette Lu's possible role in a post-Chen era; and investigations into President Chen's son-in-law's insider trading scandal and questionable gifts received by First Lady Wu Shu-chen. Almost all papers carried reports on inside pages June 10 of the United States' welcoming President Chen's reaffirmation of the Four Nos pledge. The pro-status quo "China Times" ran a banner headline on page two June 10 that read "Meeting with Raymond Burghardt and Reiterating Four Nos Pledge, Bian Proves to United States that He Is More Reliable Than Lu." The same newspaper also ran the results of its latest survey June 10, which showed that 43 percent of those polled support the motion to recall Chen, and 46 percent hope that Chen will step down himself. In the same poll, 46 percent of respondents support Lu's succession, and 31 percent said they support Lu to be the president while incumbent Legislative Yuan Wang Jin-pyng heads the Cabinet. ¶2. In terms of editorials and commentaries, an analysis in the pro-independence "Liberty Times," Taiwan's biggest daily, said President Chen pitched in his chip in time to woo the United States, as he realized that the U.S. is his most important ally at the moment. An editorial in the limited-circulation, pro-independence, English-language "Taipei Times" criticized KMT Chairman Ma Ying-jeou's attempt to recall Chen, saying the move is akin to a frontal assault on the United States' "beloved cross-Strait 'status quo.'" An opinion piece in the mass-circulation "Apple Daily" said the moment that AIT Chairman Raymond Burghardt returns to the United States is not the end of U.S.-Taiwan tensions, but the beginning of how to shape future U.S.-Taiwan relations. A "China Times" editorial predicted that Taiwan will have to undergo a period marked by confrontations between the ruling and opposition parties. End summary. A) "To Woo the United States, Bian Pitches in His Chip in Time" Washington correspondent Nadia Tsao commented in an analysis in the pro-independence "Liberty Times" [circulation: 600,000] (6/10): "Just at the moment when Chen Shui-bian is facing a recall crisis, the United States suddenly got the Four Nos pledge it has been waiting for for nearly six months. Chen, on the other hand, also got a certain endorsement from the State Department's generous response. Chen obviously decided that the United States is his most powerful ally at this moment. ... "Even though the United States reiterated more than once that it will not interfere in Taiwan's internal affairs, Washington's political influence in Taiwan is a fact that cannot be covered up. The State Department's statement is worth pondering in many resspects. For example, the statement made no effort to hide the Bush administration's joy, as evidenced especially in its sentences such as 'these measures will not change during his remaining two years in office.' [The United States] even urged Beijing to take parallel steps to fulfill its 'obligations' and reach out to Taiwan's duly elected leaders. [The statement] has indirectly proved that the deal over the Four Nos pledge included the terms that Washington used in its call for Beijing to push for the latter to engage in direct talks with the Bian administration. "Even though one cannot over-interpret the State Department statement as Washington's endorsement of Chen to finish his remaining term of office, Chen is evidently adding chips that are favorable for him on the U.S. scale, in an attempt to counterattack the opposition parties or even restrain the pressure from within the DPP. It is, however, noteworthy to see whether Chen will give up his voice with regard to cross-Strait issues after having clearly shown his stand to the United States." B) "The Foppish Barking of Ma Ying-jeou" The pro-independence, English-language "Taipei Times" [circulation: 30,000] editorialized (6/10): "Surprise, surprise. It appears that Chinese Nationalist Party Chairman Ma Ying-jeou is not the strong and upright leader that the public regularly swoons over. In the space of seven days, Ma has abandoned his temperate position on the controversy enveloping the Presidential Office - not because of any meaningful development in the investigation of the son-in-law of President Chen Shui-bian, but because of hardline forces he is unable to control or ignore within the KMT and the People First Party (PFP). "Critically at this time, the US has given Chen a boost for his cooperation on cross-strait affairs. Washington, if nobody else, recognizes that campaigning for removal of a president from office for the alleged misdemeanors of others is nothing less than a frontal assault on the beloved cross-strait 'status quo.' The fact that Ma toured the US only a few months ago depicting himself as a champion of this 'status quo' provides all the evidence to declare Ma a disingenuous, limp and flaky heir to his idol and former employer, dictator Chiang Ching-kuo. You can't be a 'shuaige' [Chinese characters meaning handsome guy] fop and morph into a power hungry thug-in-waiting for too long without the strain beginning to show." C) "Burghardt Alone Cannot Decide Whether [Washington] Supports Bian Or Not" Assistant Professor Yu Pen-li at Tamkang University's Graduate Institute of American Studies opined in the mass-circulation "Apple Daily" [circulation: 500,000] (6/12): "... It is not difficult to tell by looking back at history that when Raymond Burghardt returns to the United States, it does not indicate the end of tensions between the United States and Taiwan, but the beginning of how to shape future U.S.-Taiwan relations. Will A-bian be able to maintain stability in Taiwan's political situation if he continues his rule? Will the new leader be able to hold on to the new situation and stabilize cross-Strait relations if A-bian steps down? Will Taiwan people's anti-Bian awareness be transformed into the power for the United States to respect Taiwan people's choice? All these possibilities are the direction that Washington needs to cautiously evaluate in the future. Without a doubt, it is not up to Burghardt to decide whether Washington wants to support Bian. As a result, one will easily lose focus if he tries to examine Burghardt's every move using a magnifying glass. ..." D) "Taiwan Perhaps Will Have to Undergo Period in Which Ruling and Opposition Parties Use up Each Other!" The pro-status quo "China Times" [circulation: 400,000] editorialized (6/10): "... In the confrontation over the next months, the pan-Blue camp will naturally not give up so easily, since it has launched the recall campaign with strong public support. In order to consolidate its ruling position, the DPP, too, will not easily back out. ... Judging from the current situation, only three factors will make the confrontation end earlier: One is unexpected external pressure (the U.S. involvement, for example); the second is an unexpectedly quick court ruling; and the third is unexpected exposure of more information. We of course do not wish to see any external forces intervene in Taiwan's internal affairs, and many people perhaps do not expect that the investigation agencies will wake up suddenly. As a result, the only thing that Taiwan people can look forward to is, like the Watergate case, undeniable evidence provided by a Deep Throat, with which the media and public opinion will exert immense pressure. In that way maybe all the political impasses may be resolved. ..." YOUNG