MEDIA REACTION: AFTERMATH OF PRESIDENT CHEN'S CESSION OF

UNCLAS AIT TAIPEI 001959

SIPDIS

DEPARTMENT FOR INR/R/MR, EAP/TC, EAP/PA, EAP/PD - ERIC BARBORIAK
DEPARTMENT PASS AIT/WASHINGTON

SIPDIS

E.O. 12958: N/A


TAGS: OPRC KMDR KPAO TW
SUBJECT: MEDIA REACTION: AFTERMATH OF PRESIDENT CHEN'S CESSION OF
POWERS



1. Summary: As the pan-Blue and pan-Green camps' moves in the wake
of President Chen Shui-bian's decision to relinquish some of his
powers continued in Taiwan's media spotlight June 8, news coverage
also focused on the investigations into President Chen's
son-in-law's insider trading scandal and questionable gifts received
by First Lady Wu Shu-chen. The pro-independence "Liberty Times,"
Taiwan's biggest daily, ran a front-page banner headline that read
"Blue Camp Pushes for Recall Motion, While Green Camp Urges Stop to
Political Confrontation." The pro-status quo "China Times," on the
other hand, spent the first few pages discussing the possible
alliance between Vice President Annette Lu and Legislative Yuan
President Wang Jin-pyng in a post-Chen era. The newspaper
front-paged "Bian Stuck in Crisis, While Lu and Wang Form Alliance;"
it also ran a banner headline on page three that said "Attaching
Great Importance to 'Lu-Wang Alliance,' KMT Will Support Lu
Succession If Bian Steps down." The pro-unification "United Daily
News" carried the results of its latest survey, which showed that
those who support the plan to recall Chen rose from 33 percent to 48
percent in the past two weeks, while 36 percent said they don't
support such a plan. The same poll also showed that 64 percent of
respondents said they no longer have faith in Chen as Taiwan's
leader, while 20 percent said they still have confidence in him.


2. In terms of editorials and commentaries, a "China Times"
editorial said given Chen's plunging reputation and the nonstop
graft scandals that involve the First Family, the number of those
who hope Chen will resign will likely escalate. A separate "China
Times" analysis discussed the political alliances forming for the
post-Chen era. The same analysis also said the U.S. State
Department's immediate rebuttal of a Central News Agency report,
which said Washington hopes Chen will finish his term of office,
conveyed a strong message that leaders of both the ruling and
opposition parties all know very well. An editorial in the
limited-circulation, pro-independence, English-language "Taiwan
News" also said the DPP is facing a grave test in the post-Chen era.
End summary.

A) "Corruption and Misconduct Are Key That Crashes Leaders' Prestige
All over the World"

The pro-status quo "China Times" [circulation: 400,000]
editorialized (6/8):

"According to this newspaper's recent poll results, the people who
wish President Chen would step down himself have mounted to 47
percent, which is about half of the respondents. Given Chen's
plunging reputation and the nonstop graft scandals, the number of
those who hope he will resign will likely escalate. Such a public
opinion trend will only make Ma Ying-jeou [attitude towards
recalling Chen] become tougher, while in the meantime weaken the
calls of the three DPP heavyweights to 'stop political
confrontation.' It is noteworthy that more and more people have
started to believe that only with mounting political pressure can
[the Judicial system] be ensured to investigate the scandals to the
highest level. As a result, the atmosphere of political
confrontation will only intensify, and not subside. In other words,
it is almost certain that the situation President Chen is and will
be in will not get better. ..."

B) "In Post-Bian Era, Alliances Formed Between Ruling and Opposition
Parties Will Disturb Political Situation"

Journalist Hsiao Hsu-tsen wrote in an analysis in the pro-status quo
"China Times" [circulation: 400,000] (6/8):

"... The moves by the ruling and opposition parties to form
alliances have started openly and implicitly. The direct and most
severe battlefield will, of course, be the fight over the nativist
regime, with Chen Shui-bian as the hinge. Chen has successfully
pulled both Su Tseng-chang and Yu Shyi-kun to his side by
relinquishing some of his powers to them, while Annette Lu and Frank
Hsieh, who didn't benefit from Chen, passively keep a distance from
Chen. In the meantime, Lee Teng-hui, the 'Father of Taiwan,' has
also joined the battle; as a result, when it comes to the fight over
the nativist regime, there are the 'save Bian vs. abandon Bian'
frontlines.

"In terms of political impact, Chen's presidency will be one that
suffers direct and immediate impact from the alliance between Lu and
Wang Jin-pyng. When the vice president and the head of the
legislature, the two second highest positions under the presidency,
want to form an alliance, the significance is already very obvious,
and the move has, to a certain extent, articulated something about
the legitimacy of the president. The KMT authorities have judged
that the most important message released by the Lu-Wang alliance is
that the two already know the answer by heart when it comes to the
question of whether Chen will stay in his current position.

"There is also the U.S. factor behind the scenes. A recent Central
News Agency report said the United States supports Chen finishing
his remaining term of office, but such a report was immediately
denied by the State Department. Leaders of both the ruling and
opposition parties know very clearly the strong message conveyed [by
the State Department's statement]. That the United States
ruthlessly denied the statement that it 'hopes Bian will finish his
term of office' is a significant message for both the ruling and
opposition parties. Even though leaders in both the Blue and Green
camps made different remarks about it, in their hearts, they might
think alike with regard to how the political situation will evolve.
...

"What's most important is that while Washington and Beijing have
inadequate faith in Lu, Wang's role becomes even more intriguing.
Washington has full faith in Wang, as evidenced in the fact that he
is the first person [AIT Chairman] Ray Burghardt will call on when
he comes to Taiwan. Because of Lien Chan, Beijing has also more
than once invited Wang to visit China. Without a doubt, it is a
calculated move that Lu, who is generally considered as incapable of
getting along with other people, chose to cooperate with Wang, who
is most popular in Taiwan's political arena. ..."

C) "DPP Must Face Challenges of Post-Chen Era"

The pro-independence English-language "Taiwan News" [circulation:
20,000] editorialized (6/8):

"The Democratic Progressive Party faces a grave test for its
survival in the necessity to complete a transition to the 'post-Chen
Shui-bian era' regardless of the result of the new drive by the
Kuomintang and People First Party to impeach President Chen or force
his resignation. ... We urge citizens to examine the performance of
our political leaders and parties on the same standard of who are
seriously working for the benefit of the country and people and
promoting Taiwan's development in a democratic, progressive, just
and sustainable direction. ... While the pan-KMT camp engages in a
negative drive to pull down Chen and disrupt social order, the DPP
should exercise leadership to launch a positive civic movement to
overcome the KMT-PFP's 'scorched earth' strategy with a national
movement to upgrade the political, social, economic, environmental
and cultural quality of life for Taiwanese."

YOUNG