AIT DIRECTOR CALLS ON TAIWAN ECONOMIC PLANNING

C O N F I D E N T I A L AIT TAIPEI 001140 SIPDIS SIPDIS STATE FOR EAP/RSP/TC, STATE PASS USTR FOR WINELAND, WINTERS, ALTBACH AND STRATFORD E.O. 12958: DECL: 03/31/2016 TAGS: ECON PREL ETRD EINV TW SUBJECT: AIT DIRECTOR CALLS ON TAIWAN ECONOMIC PLANNING CHAIRMAN Classified By: AIT Director Stephen M. Young, Reasons 1.4 b/d ¶1. (C) Summary: Chairman of Taiwan's Council for Economic Planning and Development (CEPD) Dr. Hu Sheng-cheng painted a rosy picture of Taiwan's economy for AIT Director Young in a March 29 courtesy call. Concerns about hollowing out or becoming uncompetitive are unfounded, according to Hu. Taiwan's science parks are expanding rapidly and companies are actively searching for the next driver for Taiwan's economic growth. The government is negotiating with China on cross-Strait opening but needs to balance the risks and opportunities. Taiwan will continue to try to encourage investors to diversify away from China to other regions. An FTA with the U.S. would give Taiwan the confidence to open more quickly to the mainland, said Hu, but Director Young noted an FTA would be difficult. End Summary. ¶2. (U) AIT Director Stephen Young called on CEPD Chairman Dr. Hu Sheng-cheng to discuss the state of Taiwan's economy and hear CEPD's plans to encourage economic growth. CEPD is responsible for designing national development plans, reviewing development projects, coordinating economic policymaking and evaluating the implementation of development programs. CEPD also serves as the executive secretary for the Financial and Economic Subcommittee chaired by Vice Premier Tsai Ying-wen. =================================== Taiwan's Economic Growth Not Bad... =================================== ¶3. (SBU) Director Young began by complimenting Taiwan's robust economic growth since 2003 but noted that many business people in Taiwan expressed anxiety about the government's plan for the future and in particular Taiwan's policy toward China. If there is no relaxation of cross-Strait barriers, how will Taiwan maintain its economic lead? ¶4. (U) Hu responded that Taiwan's economy is actually performing reasonably well. Hu predicted 4.5 GDP growth in 2006 and recalled that Taiwan's economy grew by 6.1 in 2004 and 4.09 in 2005. A slowdown in consumer spending due to reduced issuance of credit cards, high oil prices, or avian influenza could knock down the growth rate, but CEPD expects 4.5 growth if the oil price for 2006 averages US$58/barrel. ========================== ...Still Better than Korea ========================== ¶5. (U) Since 2002, Taiwan's economic performance has actually been slightly better than that of South Korea. The misery index (unemployment plus inflation) for Taiwan's economy has been below Korea in recent years by a significant margin. Although there has been some criticism of Taiwan's widening income gap, Hu suggested that this was a natural result of globalization and the development of a knowledge-based economy. ¶6. (SBU) Hu noted the recent announcement that Korea's per capita income had surpassed that of Taiwan, but attributed this to the rapid appreciation of the Korean won over the past 3 years. Taiwan's purchasing power (PPP) adjusted income is still much higher than Korea, and Taiwan does not suffer from as serious an income inequality problem, according to Hu. Director Young inquired whether it was true that Taiwan's income gap was smaller than China's, a fact which Hu quickly confirmed. According to Hu, one Japanese scholar had asserted that China's income inequality was quickly approaching the point where it could spark a social revolution. ====================================== Not Hollowing Out, Just Clearing Space ====================================== ¶7. (SBU) Director Young noted that business leaders in Taiwan are concerned the government has not charted a clear path for the future, resulting in the hollowing out of Taiwan's economy. Hu replied that the economy is constantly hollowing out. 80 of notebook computers used to be made in Taiwan, now none are. Taiwan is a world leader in production of TFT-LCDs (flat panel displays) and is strong in the production of integrated circuits and auto-parts. Taiwan is now combining these strengths to move into production of auto electronics, biotech, machinery, and medical devices, he said. Petrochemicals are already a significant part of Taiwan's economy and are expected to grow in importance. In the future, Taiwan can move into green industries like solar power, said Hu. Already, some of the best performing companies on Taiwan's stock market were environmental technology companies. ¶8. (U) The Director asked if Taiwan was confident of its ability to stay ahead of the curve in technology, to which Hu responded that Taiwan's science parks are models for development and are still growing rapidly. Hsinchu and Tainan are already well established, but recently the Taichung Science Park's investment growth rate had surpassed the others. Second and third parks are planned for Taichung to meet this growing demand. ====================== China Trade Growing... ====================== ¶9. (C) Director Young said that, in his meetings with the American Chamber of Commerce and other business leaders, he was asked repeatedly about Taiwan's plans to open air travel links with China and about personnel movement between the two sides of the Strait. He suggested to Hu that there seemed to be two clear schools of opinion: some believed opening was too risky, others believed opening was unavoidable. ¶10. (U) Hu replied that China had recently passed the U.S. to become Taiwan's #1 trading partner with 25% of Taiwan's total trade and 37% of Taiwan exports. (Note: these figures include trade with Hong Kong.) Taiwan exported US$88.4B to China in 2005 and had a US$44.1B surplus; 70% of Taiwan's FDI goes to China. In January 2006, 90% of Taiwan overseas investment was headed to China. Although officially the figure for total Taiwan FDI in China is only US$50B, said Hu, it could be as much as US$200B if you include suspected "round tripping" through Hong Kong, the Cayman Islands, and the British Virgin Islands. ================================ ...Taiwan Just Wants Clear Rules ================================ ¶11. (C) Director Young noted that the government is calling for tighter controls on investment in the mainland and, noting the high levels, asked if that was just rhetoric given the number of indirect ways to get money in and out. Is it possible for the government to really slow the pace of investment? Hu replied that the government isn't trying to stop investment in China but does want to slow things down and to make the rules for investment in China clearer. Hu pointed to the differing approaches of Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing Corp. (TSMC) and United Microelectronics Corp. (UMC). (Note: The UMC Chairman was recently indicted for failing to report an investment in a Mainland semiconductor manufacturing firm.) The Director replied that such a policy suggested that those who break the rules would now be punished. Hu agreed, but noted that in some areas, the government planned to open up to trade and investment in China. Most restrictions will be in high-tech areas where there is a concern that Taiwan could lose its competitive advantage or in security related areas, said Hu. In traditional industries there would be greater liberalization. Large sectors of Taiwan's economy could soon see greater freedom, he said. ============================================ Diversifying Away from China Good for Taiwan ============================================ ¶12. (C) There is a perception that cross-Strait limits will hurt Taiwan's competitiveness, said Director Young. How will Taiwan deal with this problem? China's market provides opportunities and risks, said Hu, including political risks. The government needs to balance these risks. It is trying to do so by slowing the pace of investment in China and by encouraging companies to diversify their investments away from China. This takes a long time, he said, but has been successful. Hu argued that former-President Lee Tung-hui's "Go South" policy was criticized but now Taiwan is the biggest investor in Vietnam, second in Cambodia, third in Malaysia and Thailand, sixth in Indonesia, and seventh in the Philippines. ¶13. (C) CEPD hopes to continue to encourage companies to diversify their investments out of China by moving to other regions like Southeast Asia, India, or Europe. Hu noted that Acer is the best selling personal computer in Europe and that giant Taiwan manufacturer Honghai was investing in Chennai, India. Taiwan's strength in hardware and India's strong software sector were naturally complementary, said Hu. He foresees opportunities for Taiwan investments in India's petrochemical industry to grow. Taiwan has already become the #1 investor in Vietnam and many traditional industries have transferred from China to Vietnam to take advantage of Vietnam's cheaper labor. Hu also suggested networks of overseas Chinese helped to facilitate Taiwan investment in Southeast Asia. Encouraging this kind of diversification is an important part of Taiwan's strategy, he said. ===================================== "US FTA Would Speed Opening to China" ===================================== ¶14. (C) Hu said Taiwan continues to talk to China about opening direct charter flights but needed some assurances. There are those, he said, who believe Taiwan is leaning too far toward China. He noted that AmCham Executive Director Richard Vulstyke had recently told him without direct air links with China it would be difficult to get US businesses to support an FTA, but opined that an FTA would give Taiwan greater confidence to open to China. Director Young noted that there were a lot of assumptions about what an FTA could do for Taiwan, most of them false. The US and Taiwan continue to have significant issues we need to work though. He noted that the upcoming Trade and Investment Framework Agreement (TIFA) meeting in May is a chance for the U.S. and Taiwan to review our entire economic relationship. However, Young warned that his discussions in Washington before arriving in Taipei had made it clear negotiating an FTA will not be easy. ====================== Liberalizing Ag Trade? ====================== ¶15. (C) Hu understood the need to make an economic case for an FTA, but he again noted that it would give Taiwan the confidence it needed to liberalize with China and would also give U.S. firms a base from which to enter the Chinese market. Young responded that there are those who fear that the PRC will resist a U.S./Taiwan FTA and that this was a serious concern. He added that the U.S. was willing to listen to all possible steps to strengthen trade relations, but that an FTA would only be possible if there were significant economic benefit to the U.S. Could Taiwan fully liberalize agricultural trade, for example? Hu replied that Taiwan was prepared for the U.S. to ask for this but acknowledged it would not be easy. There would be lots of difficulties, but Hu implied these could be overcome. ¶16. (C) Director Young noted that Taiwan's busy election calendar made these types of policy decisions very difficult. Hu responded that although agriculture is only 1.7 of Taiwan's GDP, it is more politically important than this figure suggests. If Taiwan is to liberalize agricultural trade, Hu said, the government would have to find other ways to help farmers. He mentioned that the DPP had increased the monthly stipend for retired farmers from NT$3000 to NT$5000/month. Hu dismissed the suggestion that the government is beholden to the farmers for their political support. Instead, the government is eager to assist them because they are among the poorest in Taiwan. Farmers are a politically powerful symbol because they represent society's fear of the new knowledge economy and widening income gap. ============================== Need to Help the Farmers First ============================== ¶17. (U) The government is making headway by helping farmers move to higher value crops, and "digital farming", claimed Hu. Young recalled that in the 60's and 70's Taiwan had tried to create rural industries to get farmers out of agriculture and surmised that only the hard core were left. Hu said it was to help this "hard core" that the agricultural pension system was established. Actually, the agricultural sector is larger than the GDP figures indicate, since some of these people show up in the light industry sector if they are doing agricultural processing, or in tourism if they are opening their homes as guest houses. As much as 5-6% of the population is occupied in agriculture despite its low contribution to Taiwan's overall GDP. ==================== Budget Balancing Act ==================== ¶18. (U) When asked about Taiwan's current fiscal situation, Hu admitted that the government budget was still in deficit but said the government planned to correct the imbalance by ¶2012. The problem is primarily with the tax structure, but was exacerbated by the economic slowdown in 2003. Last year, revenue exceeded spending by NT$160B. CEPD hopes to raise the tax revenues to 16% of GDP. Gas prices are likely to increase and the price of electricity is also scheduled to increase gradually over the next several years. Taiwan is very interested in finding ways to increase energy efficiency, he said, noting that Formosa Plastic is reportedly investing in hybrid engine production technology. In a few years, expect to see LED stoplights and solar powered streetlights as energy saving measures, Hu boasted. ========================================= Defense Budget Debate and Good Governance ========================================= ¶19. (C) Young replied that given Taiwan's budget deficit, we appreciated President Chen's pledge to increase the defense budget to 3% of GDP. He emphasized that Taiwan needs to pull its weight in defense matters. Hu agreed that Taiwan needs to be able to protect itself. Young reminded Hu that it was not only the ability to defend but also the deterrent value that was important. China needs another reason to think twice about attacking Taiwan. Hu said the government understood, but the current political situation in the Legislative Yuan (LY) made it difficult. Young added that the military spending debate illustrated why the focus in Taiwan needs to shift towards promoting good governance. The economic and political structure is in place, but unbridled partisanship is hurting democracy in Taiwan. ======================================= Stage 2 Financial Reform Plans Underway ======================================= ¶20. (SBU) Turning to the banking system, Young noted that earlier concerns about the high rate of non-performing loans (NPLs) appear to have been resolved and asked what was next on the financial reform agenda? Hu replied that the first stage of financial reforms was to cut NPLs. Now they have dropped from double digits to less than 3%. Next, CEPD would like to see Taiwan become a regional financial sector. To accomplish this goal, the government plans to first reduce the number of state-owned banks by half before cutting the market share of state banks from the current 58% to 20%. The government had already met the first target, cutting the number of state banks by half by the end of 2005. ¶21. (SBU) The government's next task is to create three big banks, each with about 10 market share. Hu expects this will force the state-owned banks to expand internationally. He hoped the market share of state owned banks would drop to 20 by 2007. Hu also noted that Taiwan has too many small banks and hoped that the number could be reduced through mergers and acquisitions. When asked about the recent "card slave" reports in the Taiwan press, Hu acknowledged that credit card interest rates were often extremely high and that some banks had been offering credit too easily and without doing due diligence. However, the reports of cardholders driven to crime or suicide had been sensationalized, he said. ================================ Labor Policies a Social Problem? ================================ ¶22. (U) Director Young then asked about guest workers, recalling that there used to be about 300,000 in Taiwan. Hu replied that the numbers are about the same, mostly Filipino, Thai, and Indonesian nationals. When asked if this was a social problem, Hu replied no. The Council of Labor has strict regulations on wages, hours, but still there are sometimes problems. Young noted that labor unions opposed bank privatization. Hu agreed that unions never like privatization but added that Taiwan unions were not militant like those in Korea. ======================= One Last Shot at an FTA ======================= ¶23. (C) Returning to cross-Straits relations, Hu agreed that lots of businesses would like to open to China and reaffirmed that Taiwan was actively negotiating on cross-Strait flights with the Chinese. Director Young suggested the problem might be the channel of communication. Hu disagreed, insisting that it is an economic problem on the Chinese side. Both sides want to get an economic advantage. Any real negotiation takes time, but an FTA with the US could speed things from the Taiwan side, Hu said. ¶24. (C) Young repeated that an FTA wasn't excluded, but would be difficult. There is concern in Washington an FTA with Taiwan would risk complicating our multifaceted relationship with China. There is also the need to ensure that an FTA would achieve maximum trade results for US companies. Young again questioned whether Taiwan was willing to put sacred cows on the table, noting that he had spoken about this with Deputy U.S. Trade Representative Karan Bhatia before leaving Washington. DUSTR Bhatia had said USTR resources were stretched thin as FTA negotiations with Korea and Malaysia progressed. The expiration of Fast Track authority in 2007 posed an additional problem. That said, we looked forward to discussing our entire bilateral trade relationship in TIFA talks in May, Young concluded. ¶25. (C) Comment: We report Hu's views in some detail because they represent the government's rosy perspective. This stands in marked contrast to many of the more pessimistic views of the business community. The gap between the two views suggests more dialogue across the divide might be warranted. End Comment. YOUNG