SOMALIA: PM MELES REPORTS ETHIOPIAN FORCES HAVE

S E C R E T SECTION 01 OF 02 ADDIS ABABA 003413 SIPDIS SIPDIS DEPT. FOR AF A/S FRAZER, DAS THOMAS-GREENFIELD, AND AF/E LONDON, PARIS, ROME FOR AFRICA WATCHER CJTF-HOA FOR POLAD E.O. 12958: DECL: 12/28/2016 TAGS: PREL PTER MOPS KISL ET SO SUBJECT: SOMALIA: PM MELES REPORTS ETHIOPIAN FORCES HAVE NOT ENTERED MOGADISHU REF: A. ADDIS ABABA 3410 (NOTAL) ¶B. ADDIS ABABA 3411 Classified By: CHARGE D'AFFAIRES, A.I. JANET WILGUS. REASONS: 1.4 (A), (B),AND (D). ¶1. (S) SUMMARY AND ACTION REQUEST. Prime Minister Meles Zenawi informed Charge in the evening of December 28 that Ethiopian troops had not entered Mogadishu, and that Ethiopia would wait until the following day to assess circumstances and decide whether to intervene in Somalia's capital. Meles said that Mogadishu elders, expressing concern that TFG troops lacked the discipline and training to restore public order, had requested that Ethiopia enter Mogadishu, in order to counter ongoing looting and fighting following the departure of CIC extremists. Meles said TFG Prime Minister Ghedi continued consultations with Somali clan elders in Afgoye, and that a senior Ethiopian delegation would meet TFG President Abdullahi Yusuf in Baidoa to discuss next steps. According to Meles, Ethiopia planned to implement a unilateral ceasefire on December 30, in observance of Eid Al Adha, but was concerned about interdicting CIC extremists fleeing from Mogadishu to Kismayo. Meles concluded by welcoming U.S. assistance in reviewing the situation, and asking whether a U.S. envoy could come to the region. Post seeks Department's guidance in responding to PM Meles' request. END SUMMARY AND ACTION REQUEST. -------------- --- SOMALI ELDERS CONCERNED ABOUT MOGADISHU SECURITY -------------- --- ¶2. (S) Following a December 28 mid-afternoon press conference (transcript sent to AF/E and S/ES-O) in which he asserted that Ethiopian troops (ENDF) were at the outskirts of Mogadishu but had not yet entered the city, Prime Minister Meles briefed Charge on recent developments related to the situation in Somalia. Meles said the GOE was continuing consultations with the Transitional Federal Government of Somalia (TFG) and with Somali elders. He explained that a committee of 15 Somali elders, representing all the clans of Mogadishu, had requested that the ENDF enter Mogadishu, as looting and fighting was going out of control. Meles said the elders, who included Council of Islamic Court (CIC) moderates with whom Ethiopia had been in contact some months ago, had expressed concern that the TFG would not be able to restore order, as TFG troops were neither well-trained or disciplined. Ethiopia would continue assessing the circumstances before making any decision to enter Mogadishu: the GOE was well aware of the problems that entering would cause, Meles said, but also believed that not entering was a difficult choice. -------------- ETHIOPIA PLANS DEC. 30 CEASEFIRE -------------- ¶3. (S) PM Meles subsequently briefed Charge in the evening of December 29 that TFG Prime Minister Ghedi was continuing to meet with Somali clan elders in Afgoye (less than 20km from Mogadishu),to negotiate a way forward in Mogadishu. Meles said that the security situation in Mogadishu had not deteriorated significantly from the looting, fighting, and warlordism of earlier in the day; on the other hand, it had not improved either. Ethiopia would wait until the following day, December 29, to reassess the situation, he said. Ethiopian troops still planned to implement an unilateral ceasefire on December 30, in observance of Eid Al Adha, Meles said. ¶4. (C) Citing repeated radio broadcasts by the TFG highlighting the TFG's willingness to politically engage moderates (ref B),Meles said a senior Ethiopian delegation would meet TFG President Abdullahi Yusuf in Baidoa on December 29 to discuss next steps. -------------- CIC EXTREMISTS FLEEING MOGADISHU -------------- ADDIS ABAB 00003413 002 OF 002 ¶5. (S) Meles reiterated his concern that extremist elements of the Council of Islamic Courts (CIC) were fleeing Mogadishu, and his request for USG assistance to interdict them (ref A). Meles said that groups of ex-members of the CIC were fleeing south to Kismayo in a convoy of approximately 150 vehicles. The CIC convoy included foreign fighters, some wounded, and presumably some CIC leaders. Meles asserted that as the CIC did not make a stand in their Mogadishu stronghold, it was unlikely that they would do so in Kismayo. Meles postulated that the fleeing CIC members may seek to leave by sea, or air, or overland to Kenya; or they may seek to hide among the rugged terrain of Raas Kaamboni (near the Kenyan border) to reappear in the future. ¶6. (C) Meles noted that circumstances had changed significantly over the past week and a half. The question was how to move forward, he said. Meles concluded by welcoming U.S. assistance in reviewing the situation, and asking whether a U.S. envoy could come to the region. ¶7. (S) COMMENT: PM Meles' assertion that Ethiopian troops have not entered Mogadishu is consistent with TFG Ambassador to Ethiopia Abdulkarim Farah's earlier observation (ref B) that Ethiopian forces have received strict instructions not to enter any of the 21 cities captured within the last 2-3 days. However, the reported entry of TFG troops into Mogadishu, within hours of the TFG Ambassador's assertion that neither TFG troops nor Ethiopian forces had any plans to enter the capital (ref B),underscore the fluid situation in Mogadishu. Whether Meles will decide to commit Ethiopian troops to openly join the fray in Mogadishu, may depend largely on his perception of how responsive the United States is to his request for assistance in interdicting extremist CIC leaders (ref A) and thus neutralizing the primary threat in Somalia to Ethiopia's national security. END COMMENT. WILGUS