CORRECTED COPY: SOMALIA: GOE PM MELES SAYS

S E C R E T SECTION 01 OF 02 ADDIS ABABA 003410 SIPDIS SIPDIS FOR AF A/S FRAZER AND DAS THOMAS-GREENFIELD E.O. 12958: DECL: 12/28/2016 TAGS: MOPS ASEC PREL PGOV SO ET SUBJECT: CORRECTED COPY: SOMALIA: GOE PM MELES SAYS JIHADISTS FLEEING MOGADISHU, URGENT CLAN TALKS NEEDED Classified By: CHARGE JANET WILGUS FOR REASONS 1.4 (B) AND (D) ¶1. (U) This cable contains an action request. Please see para 5. ¶2. (S) SUMMARY: Ethiopian Prime Minister Meles told Charge that the "Jihadist" leaders of the Council of Islamic Courts (CIC) had fled Mogadishu as ENDF and TFG forces closed in on the Somali capital. ACTION REQUEST: Meles asked for USG assistance in interdicting extremist leaders, some of whom were escaping in boats from Merka and Kismayo. The CIC as an entity has disbanded and is no longer providing security on the streets. Immediate action is needed to establish security in Mogadishu, he said. Meles indicated that ENDF and TFG militia had stopped their advance in Afgoye, a town about 25 km outside the capital, in order to negotiate the entry into Mogadishu by the TFG. Meles said that the disbanding of the CIC and the urgency of providing security in the capital meant immediate talks among Somali clan leaders and other local stakeholders would take place in Afgoye, and that internationally-brokered negotiations in Khartoum were now overtaken by events. The GOE was urging the TFG to put out public statement indicating that looting a return to warlordism would not be tolerated, he added. End Summary. CIC DISINTEGRATION CREATES IMMEDIATE SECURITY CHALLENGES -------------- -------------- ¶3. (S) PM Meles called Charge the morning of Dec. 28 to brief her on the most recent developments in Somalia and seek assistance. He said that events were proceeding much faster than the GOE had expected. The "Jihadists" were fleeing Mogadishu as Ethiopian National Defense Forces (ENDF) and Transitional Federal Government (TFG) militia approached the capital. The extremist CIC leaders had distributed weapons and sought to sow chaos as they left the city. The security situation in Mogadishu was deteriorating, he said, and urgent measures were needed to prevent a descent into chaos. Meles said that the ENDF and TFG had halted their advance in the town of Afgoye, about 25 km outside the capital, in order to negotiate the peaceful entry of TFG forces into Mogadishu. Meles said he was urging the TFG to put out a public statement indicating that looting and a return to the "warlordism" of the past would not be tolerated. KHARTOUM PROCESS DEAD; URGENT ALL-SOMALI PROCESS NEEDED -------------- -------------- ¶4. (S) Meles told the Charge that the disbanding of the CIC's extremist leadership and the urgency of restoring order had changed the equation for political negotiations. The internationally-brokered peace process in Khartoum had been overtaken by events. Meles said that what was needed now was dialogue among Somalis themselves, represented by Mogadishu-based clan leaders, which he said would begin Dec. 28 in Afgoye. He said that the Ayr sub-clan of the Hawiye clan, previously the primary base of support for the CIC, had already formed a committee of 24 leaders to engage with the TFG. He said that UN and other international organizations could most usefully focus on provision of humanitarian assistance and the creation of a peacekeeping force to support stabilization. Meles also said that the ENDF would observe a unilateral cease-fire in observance of the Muslim holiday of Eid Al Adha on Dec. 30. ACTION REQUEST: CAPTURE FLEEING EXTREMISTS -------------- ¶5. (S) According the PM, "Jihadist" elements of the CIC were fleeing Mogadishu in boats from Merka and Kismayo. Meles asked whether the USG could assist in interdicting these individuals. ACTION REQUEST: Post requests Department guidance on how to respond to the PM's urgent request. COMMENT: UNEXPECTED SUCCESS LEAVES GOE IN CONTROL -------------- -------------- ¶6. (S) The still rapidly evolving situation in Somalia seems to be playing out along the lines of Meles' most optimistic assumptions: that a military blow to the CIC's seeming ADDIS ABAB 00003410 002 OF 002 invincibility could end the dominance of Jihadist extremists and trigger a mass shift of Somali power-brokers toward more moderate leaders. The GOE's plans to convene an immediate negotiation between the TFG and clan elders is likely a genuine effort to ensure security as soon as possible, particularly given that the GOE will be blamed for failing to guarantee security now that it is in control. At the same time, however, such negotiations also offer the GOE the opportunity to serve as the broker and primary guarantor of a new political order in Somalia, and to sideline international actors who support Islamic extremists. WILGUS