ETHIOPIA: LOCAL ELECTIONS ON THE HORIZON - IS

UNCLAS SECTION 01 OF 05 ADDIS ABABA 003120 SIPDIS SENSITIVE SIPDIS DEPARTMENT FOR AF/E, AF/RSA LONDON, PARIS, ROME FOR AFRICA WATCHER E.O. 12958: N/A TAGS: PGOV PHUM KDEM ET SUBJECT: ETHIOPIA: LOCAL ELECTIONS ON THE HORIZON - IS ETHIOPIA READY? REF: ADDIS ABABA 03050 ¶1. (U) ACTION REQUEST: Please see paragraph 19. ¶2. (SBU) SUMMARY Still working through the aftermath of the disputed federal elections in 2005, Ethiopia now focuses on important local elections in early 2007. Voter anger and candidate intimidation are hurdles to a successful campaign, as is a potential boycott by opposition parties. A mountain of administrative tasks remain to be completed to prepare for 30 million voters to select among thousands of possible candidates. Despite these challenges, the National Election Board (NEB) and political parties recognize the importance of these elections and the potential for them to be a tangible step forward in Ethiopia's democratization process. International support is critical at this stage to fund voter education, NEB capacity-building and election observation. International engagement will also be needed to influence the re-opening of space for opposition campaigning and encourage opposition participation (see paragraph 19 for action request). Finally, the fate of those detained in connection with political violence in November 2005 will be a key determinant of public confidence in 2007 elections. END SUMMARY. ¶3. (SBU) During the week of November 13, Poloff met with representatives of the National Election Board of Ethiopia (NEB) Tesfaye Menegesha, Secretary General, and Mekonnen Wondimu, Director of the Office of the Registrar. Separate meetings were also held with representatives of all major political parties in Ethiopia: Shiferaw Jarso, Ethiopian Peoples, Revolutionary Democratic Front (EPRDF); Lidetu Ayalew, United Ethiopian Democratic Party ) Medhin (UEDP-Medhin); Bulcha Dimeksa, Oromo Federalist Democratic Movement (OFDM); Dr. Merera Gudina and Beyene Petros, United Ethiopian Democratic Forces (UEDF); and Temesgen Zewdie, Coalition for Unity and Democracy Party (CUDP). These meetings were intended to gain insight into the anticipated local elections in 2007 and to learn how the NEB and political parties are currently preparing. -------------- COMPLEX LOCAL GOVERNMENT STRUCTURES -------------- ¶4. (SBU) The last local elections took place in 2001 and are ordinarily scheduled to take place every five years. However, due to the unstable domestic political environment following the national and regional parliamentary elections in 2005, the local elections for 2006 were postponed. ¶5. (SBU) Local elections are held to choose representatives for the city, kebele and woreda councils. Additionally, in the Southern Nations and Nationalities Peoples Region of Ethiopia (SNNPR),elections are also held for zonal councils. In all other regions zonal councils are appointed by the regional parliament, rather than selected directly by the voters. The hierarchy of governmental authority in Ethiopia is as follows: Federal, regional, zonal, woreda, kebele. The authority of city councils varies depending mostly on the population of the city. For example, the city council of Addis Ababa (a special administrative zone) has authority equivalent to that of a regional parliament. Smaller cities have authority that lies between a woreda and a zone (though the mayor will answer directly to the regional parliament). Therefore, in one local election, a voter may vote separately for city, kebele, woreda and zonal (in SNNPR) representatives. ¶6. (SBU) Within Ethiopia, there are 9 regions, in addition to the special administrative areas of the cities of Addis Ababa and Dire Dawa. Each region, other than the special city administrations, contains a varying number of zones, woredas and kebeles, depending mostly on the population of that region. There are a total of 65 zones in Ethiopia, including 13 in the Southern Nationalities Region. Each zone contains anywhere between 5 and 22 woredas, depending on population, as each woreda is made up of approximately 100,000 people. There are roughly 630 woredas in Ethiopia. Within each woreda, there are between 20 and 50 kebeles. Boundaries of kebeles, like zones, are designated largely on administrative convenience and population densities. For example, kebeles in urban centers may contain up to 5,000 people, whereas ADDIS ABAB 00003120 002 OF 005 those in some rural areas may have very few people. ¶7. (SBU) During the May 2005 Federal and Regional parliamentary elections, voters in Addis Ababa also elected the Addis Ababa city council (as it is the equivalent of a regional council). All but one of the seats on the 138 person Addis Ababa council was won by the opposition CUD coalition. However, many of these elected council members refused to take up their positions, leading to the installation of an interim council by the GoE. The mandate of the interim council was set for one year, which expires in April 2007. Therefore, the NEB plans to also hold Addis Ababa city council elections during the same time as the other national local elections. -------------- -------------- NEB HAS 5 MONTHS TO PREPARE FOR 30 MILLION VOTERS -------------- -------------- ¶8. (SBU) NEB Secretary General Tesfaye informed Poloff that the NEB is planning for the first round of local elections to take place on the April 29, 2007. During this round, elections for all woreda councils in Ethiopia will take place, as well as the zonal councils in the Southern Nationalities Region, and the city council elections for Addis Ababa. One week later, on May 6, the elections for kebele in all regions and city councils (outside of Addis Ababa) will take place. Though the NEB is currently making preparations for these dates, Tesfaye pointed out that these dates may be changed by the NEB's incoming board of directors. (NOTE: The outgoing board of directors' mandate expired on November 9. The appointment of a new board is constitutionally the responsibility of the Prime Minister, subject to approval by Parliament. Senior ruling party officials have promised to consult the opposition on their appointments. To date, no new board has been presented to Parliament. END NOTE.) ¶9. (SBU) Mekonnen Wondimu, the Director of the Office of the Registrar at the NEB, is in charge of all technical preparations for the elections, including voter and candidate registration. Mekonnen explained to Poloff that currently his department is preparing voter registration materials. These materials, once completed, will be distributed to the 30,000 polling stations (approximately one for 1,000-1,500 eligible voters) around Ethiopia. Voter registration must take place 3 to 4 months before the date of the election. Prior to the completion of the voter registration, candidate registration must also be completed, and typically lasts one month. (NOTE: According to these regulations, and by Mekonnen's estimate, candidate registration may begin as early as mid-December if the election takes place on April ¶29. END NOTE) Once the voter and candidate registration is completed, information is collected centrally. At that point voter registration cards are printed and distributed back to the polling stations. Also, ballots and explanatory posters are printed using symbols associated with parties and candidates. Mekonnen explained that this must be done due to the low literacy rates in Ethiopia. ¶10. (SBU) Mekonnen said that the NEB is anticipating 32 million voters nation-wide for this election, representing an 85-90 percent turnout. Further, in discussing candidate selection, he explained that each kebele is divided into 10 constituencies. A political party puts forward on average 10 candidates per constituency. Therefore, in each kebele, depending on the number of political parties competing, there may be several hundred candidates running for a kebele council composed of 100 people (on average). Additionally, each kebele elects 3 representatives to be represented in the woreda council. Therefore, there may be dozens of woreda candidates to choose from. The same system is used to elect the zonal council in the Southern Nations Region (i.e. each woreda elects 3 representatives for the zonal council). City councils also vary in size and number of candidates based on the population of the city. To further complicate the selection of candidate, a voter may pick and choose representatives for every level from among various parties, as representatives are not selected on a strictly party basis. Therefore, the NEB must produce ballots and explanatory materials for every level of local election to allow voters (many illiterate) to select among the many ADDIS ABAB 00003120 003 OF 005 hundreds of candidates. Mekonnen was confident that the NEB can produce these materials within one month following the registration of voters and candidates. ¶11. (SBU) Following the difficult task of producing materials for the elections, the NEB must select, train and manage the staff each of the 30,000 polling stations. Each station will be staffed with 5 NEB temporary employees to manage the voting activity. (NOTE: Those selected by the NEB to administer elections are chosen primarily from among local government employees. END NOTE.) In addition, there will be 5 community elders at each station to act as impartial observers. Further to this, each competing political party is entitled to have one observer per polling station. For NEB employees and observers, the NEB will manage a 2-day training module in preparation of the elections. Following the completion of the elections, votes are counted at each polling station, and then aggregated at the relevant central level (i.e. kebele, woreda, etc.) to be tallied. Mekonnen said that he anticipates the results of the elections to be available the following day. He said that the NEB, dependent on international donor support, plans to implement a radio campaign of voter education prior to the election, as well as contracting NGO,s to undertake education activities at a local level. He also said that international observers would be welcome to participate, so long as they have been properly registered. (NOTE: The GoE has not yet made a formal call for international observation. EPRDF whip Shiferaw Jarso told Poloffs that he anticipated observation by local groups, but did not commit on whether international observation would be invited. END NOTE.) -------------- --- RULING PARTY READY, OPPOSITION STILL IN THE DARK -------------- --- ¶12. (SBU) Shiferaw Jarso, parliamentary whip for the ruling EPRDF party, expressed confidence that the elections would take place without complications and said that his party is actively canvassing candidates in preparation. He feels that the elections will be fair and all political parties will be free to compete. He was unsure of the date of the election, as the new NEB has not yet been named. He assured Emboffs that PM Meles would be presenting a list of candidates to opposition party leaders soon and that once agreed upon and confirmed in parliament, the new board would officially announce the dates. In response to Pol-Econ Counselor's concern about opposition parties' ability to campaign and maintain local party offices, Shiferaw referred to the recent agreement among parties to adhere to the rule of law, saying there will be no interference from the EPRDF. He also said that the issue of party financing will be addressed in inter-party dialogue, but will depend on opposition parties' willingness to adhere to the rule of law agreement. (NOTE: Shiferaw singled out Dr. Merera of the UEDF and Temesgen of the CUDP as party leaders currently not adhering to the agreement. END NOTE.) In discussing technicalities of the elections, Shiferaw told Emboffs that city councils in Ethiopia are elected directly by the voters, but the city administrations, including mayors, are appointed by the regional parliaments. (NOTE: This would create a potential for significant political conflict, as all regional parliaments are controlled by the EPRDF. END NOTE) However, this was refuted later by the NEB's Mekonnen, who said that the city administration and mayor are in fact appointed by the elected city councils. ¶13. (SBU) Opposition parties expressed serious concerns about the local elections, saying that both opposition party and voter participation may be very limited. Though opposition party leaders were aware that the GoE planned to have local elections in 2007, none had been informed by the NEB about the suggested date of the election and seemed surprised when informed by Poloff. Another common reaction among party leaders was their belief in the importance of controlling the local government councils. Though they told Poloff that the opposition does not currently control any kebeles, woredas, zones or cities in Ethiopia, the political gain for their parties in achieving even some success in these elections would be tremendous. Beyene of the UEDF went so far to say he "would almost rather be a woreda administrator than a federal MP, (because) that is where the ADDIS ABAB 00003120 004 OF 005 real decisions and impact are made." As an example, he noted that decisions regarding distribution of the "Protection of Basic Services" (PBS) development funds are made at a local level and can make a significant impact on the population. Dr. Merera pointed out that, "policies may be made at the federal or regional level, but the implementation is done at the local level." He said that many policies at the federal and regional level are not necessarily undesirable; the problem is that the implementation at the local level is always determined by the ruling party. All party leaders also stressed that political intimidation and human rights abuses would be drastically reduced if local governments had opposition participation, as a single party would not be able to dictate the day-to-day national and local administrations. ¶14. (SBU) Opposition party leaders stressed two key problems that will likely prevent a successful election: inability to identify candidates and voter participation. In both of these restrictions, they pointed either to anger or fear as major barriers. Among the leaders, Lidetu of UEDP-Medhin was the most positive, saying "boycotting of the elections is not a good strategy and our party will certainly participate if possible." He reported that he is free to move around and meet with party representatives in his home Amhara region. However, he said that in his discussions with voters and party members, nearly all are discouraged and not willing to participate in the upcoming elections following the circumstances surrounding the May 2005 elections. He said that in order to overcome the overwhelming apathy among those in his party, the planned agenda items for the inter-party dialogue must proceed quickly. Specifically, he highlighted that: 1) NEB board discussions must reach agreement by all parties, thus ensuring an impartial NEB board; 2) the media law must be agreed upon, which would give the opposition parties some access to the press; and 3) public financing should be in place in order to ensure that parties can be active in campaigning and organizing. He said that he is anxiously awaiting the resumption of these inter-party discussions, and if the points are agreed upon, he is confident that he can work with his party to motivate voters and candidates. ¶15. (SBU) Less positive were Temesgen of the CUDP and leaders from the Oromo Region, Dr. Merera Gudina of the UEDF and Bulcha Dimeksa of the OFDM. They complained that their party members continue to be harassed, jailed and beaten by GoE forces in their areas and that, as a result, voters and potential candidates are afraid to actively participate. They stressed that this is particularly true for local elections, where international attention is likely to be less than it was for the 2005 federal elections. Bulcha went so far as to say that the OFDM will not participate unless they know international observers will be allowed. All three party leaders echoed Lidetu's concern that the agenda of the inter-party dialogue be completed. They felt that if these issues were resolved and if the EPRDF and opposition parties were able to agree upon a joint public statement encouraging voters to participate and party leaders were allowed to visit their constituencies to canvass candidates, that they would have a successful election and take many kebele, woreda and city councils. ¶16. (SBU) Though Beyene had many of the same concerns as the other party leaders, such as local office closures, inability to motivate voters and candidates, etc., he offered a broader view than other leaders. He pointed out that the ruling EPRDF party recognizes these elections are important for both political control, as well as international legitimacy. With that in mind, he expressed some confidence that, while the election may not be entirely free and fair, the opposition will likely be given enough space to make some additional gains. He reiterated that in order to do so, the EPRDF must immediately reopen the inter-party dialogue and address the same points made by the other party leaders. Regardless of the amount of political space granted, Beyene expressed concern at the NEB's ability to prepare for and administer such an extensive election for late April, particularly in his home SNNPR. -------------- -------------- COMMENT: DONOR INVOLVEMENT ESSENTIAL IN NEAR TERM ADDIS ABAB 00003120 005 OF 005 -------------- -------------- ¶17. (SBU) The likelihood of success of the 2007 local elections in Ethiopia will likely be determined in the weeks ahead, as several key steps must be taken immediately in order to promote wide participation and legitimacy. The first and foremost of these is the nomination of the board of directors for the NEB, a controversial body involved in the post-election disputes in 2005. Though all the opposition party leaders are under the impression that the ruling party will consult with them prior to the nomination of board members, Shiferaw made it clear that it is the PM's responsibility to nominate them, subject only to parliamentary approval. Ensuring that a widely respected board is put forth is critical for both political parties and voters. Beyond this, all parties are also insisting that two other key agenda items be decided: the media law and party financing. However, action on these issues will likely require several weeks of negotiation. Parties are quickly approaching the anticipated period of candidate registration and an agreement on these points is needed if all parties are to begin to participate in the election process in good faith. The fate of those detained in connection with the November 2005 political violence will also be a large determinant of public confidence in the 2007 local elections. Continued detention of CUD leaders and other will make popular and international acceptance of new elections difficult. ¶18. (SBU) Further to the political complexities, the NEB faces an extremely daunting task of preparing voter materials for over 30 million voters to select among thousands of candidates, not to mention the dire need for voter education. Multilateral donor involvement in this effort hinges on the appointment of the new NEB board, whose approval will be required for UNDP coordination on election assistance. In the meantime, bi-lateral efforts from donors are under discussion, both to assist the NEB in election preparation, as well as to push the GoE to move forward with inter-party dialogue. ¶19. (SBU) ACTION REQUEST: Post's ability to fund both multi-lateral and bilateral electoral support is dependent on approval of the FY 2006 ESF proposal. This proposal included $1,650,000 for capacity building and institutional reform efforts for the NEB, and specific activities focused on the 2007 local elections, such as support civic and voter education, political party capacity building, training for candidates, elections monitoring, and improved vote counting and complaints investigation and adjudication procedures. Once the questions and concerns laid out above are addressed, donors will move rapidly to put in place a comprehensive electoral support program. Post requests approval of FY 2006 ESF proposal. YAMAMOTO