C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 03 ADDIS ABABA 002927

SIPDIS

SIPDIS

DEPARTMENT FOR AF/E
LONDON, PARIS, ROME FOR AFRICA WATCHER

E.O. 12958: DECL: 10/30/2016
TAGS: PGOV PREL PTER PHUM ET ER
SUBJECT: ETHIOPIA: SFRC STAFFER PHELAN VISIT TOUCHES ON WAR
IN SOMALIA, DEMOCRACY AT HOME

REF: A. ADDIS ABABA 02877

B. ADDIS ABABA 02872

C. ADDIS ABABA 02865

Classified By: CHARGE VICKI HUDDLESTON FOR REASONS 1.4(b)AND(d).


1. (C) SUMMARY: In a series of meetings during a visit to
Ethiopia, SFRC Staffer Phelan inquired about issues at the
forefront of Ethiopian politics ) engagement in Somalia and
progress in deepening democracy. Regarding Somalia, Phelan
was told by GoE officials that Ethiopia is ready to eliminate
the threat of jihadists, if and when the CIC moves into
Baidoa. The Ethiopia military is confident that any conflict
with the CIC will be quick and decisive. On domestic
matters, Phelan engaged with opposition parliamentarians and
encouraged them to continue their dialogue with the GoE to
foster a stronger democracy. He also discussed with GoE
officials the ongoing trial of CUD leadership, stressing that
the USG is closely following the proceedings to ensure that
the trial is speedy, fair and transparent. END SUMMARY.


2. (SBU) Senate Foreign Relations Committee staffer Michael
Phelan visited Addis Ababa October 25-27 and held a series of
meetings to discuss regional security matters as well and the
internal Ethiopian political environment. Those meetings
which were primarily focused on regional security matters
included LTG Samora Yonus, Chief of General Staff, Ethiopian
National Defense Forces; (ENDF), Tekeda Alemu, State Minister
for Foreign Affairs; and an Ambassadors lunch hosted by
Charge which included numerous European and African
Ambassadors to Ethiopia. In the meeting with LTG Samora,
Charge and SFRC Staffer Phelan were joined by CJTF-HOA
Admiral Hunt, DATT Donald Zedler and Poloff. In the meeting
with Tekeda, Charge and SFRC Staffer Phelan and Poloff were
joined by USG delegation including Ret. Gen Carl Fulford and
Amb. Peter Chaveas from the African Center for Strategic
Studies (ACSS), Gen. Remkis from EUCOM J5. SFRC Staffe

r
Phelan also met with PM Meles (reftels A and B).


3. (SBU) SFRC Staffer Phelan discussed internal political
issues with Minister of Information Bereket Simon, as well as
with opposition leaders Dr. Merera Gudina, United Ethiopian
Democratic Front (UEDF); Lidetu Ayalew, United Ethiopian
Democratic Party-Medhin (UEDP-Medhin); Bulcha Demeksa, Oromo
People Democratic Movement (OFDM); and Ayele Chamisso,
Coalition for Unity and Democracy Party (CUDP). Phelan was
accompanied in both of these meetings by P/E Counselor and
Poloff. Phelan also met with the Chairman of the Independent
Inquiry Commission, Mekonnen Dilgasa (reftel C).

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SOMALIA CONTINUES AT FOREFRONT OF ETHIOPIAN EXTERNAL ISSUES
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4. (C) In a wide ranging discussion with various European and
African Ambassadors to Ethiopia, Charge and SFRC Staffer
Phelan surveyed participants on reactions to the current
situation in Somalia, resulting in spirited deliberations how
best to move forward. French Ambassador Stephan Gompertz
reported that though Paris has not yet decided on how to
proceed, there are essentially two options ) either fully
support dialogue through the Khartoum talks, or push for
action in assembling the IGASOM force from Uganda ) both of
which he admitted have serious disadvantages. European Union
Ambassador Tim Clarke said that the EU has also not been able
to present unified support for either option, as EU countries
differ widely in opinion. This was evident during the
discussion as German Ambassador Class Knoop voiced doubts at
the CIC's sincerity in finding an agreement at the Khartoum
talks, whereas Italian Ambassador Rafaelle de Lutio said
that, while maintaining pressure on the CIC is necessary, the
international community should concentrate on ensuring that
the talks continue. The Ugandan DCM, Idule Amoko, reported
that Uganda is prepared to send peacekeeping troops if and
when such a decision is made by the AU and the international
community. Canadian Ambassador Yves Boulanger remarked that,
either way, conflict between CIC and the Somali TFG, and by
extension Ethiopia, is likely unavoidable. Despite the
myriad opinions on the most effective way to prevent war in
Somalia, most Ambassadors agreed that additional delays by
the international community will likley be counterproductive.


5. (C) In discussing regional issues, Deputy Foreign Minister

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Tekeda said that, though Eritrea is always an issue for
Ethiopia, Somalia is the major priority at this time. Though
he characterized accusations that Ethiopia would react
hastily to regional conflict as "hogwash," he did say that
Ethiopia would respond to defend its "national interests."
When asked if he is confident that a peaceful solution in
Somalia is possible, Tekeda responded that, "it depends."
Though he said that support within the African Union for
intervention is gaining strength, he expressed doubt that an
IGASOM force would be approved before the CIC moves on
Baidoa. He also reported that Foreign Minister Seyoum had
productive talks with Kenyan and Ugandan presidents on a
recent trip, and that discussions will continue during the
upcoming China-African summit in Beijing. When asked whether
religion is a factor in Ethiopia's involvement in Somalia,
Tekeda responded saying, "To begin with, Ethiopia is not
strictly speaking a Christian country," and that "the values
of the CIC are not (our) problem until they attempt to extend
them (to Ethiopia)." However, he added that if Ethiopia did
not involve itself in Somalia, then Baidoa and subsequently
Puntland, Somaliland and the rest of the country would fall
under control of the CIC. He concluded that, "Islamists will
always be part of (the government of) Somalia - that will not
change. But the jihadists cannot be allowed to take charge."



6. (C) LTG Samora was blunt in his prioritization of regional
matters for Ethiopia, saying, "I have forgotten about Eritrea
for now. They are doing their job in Somalia," in reference
to allegation that Eritrea is training and supplying the CIC.
During the meeting he repeatedly conveyed Ethiopia's
position on support for the TFG, indicating that "we will not
let them be attacked," and adding that, "If we are provoked,
we will not stop." LTG Samora claimed that the CIC was
receiving significant help from abroad, including training
and arms from Eritrea, and 14 battalions of rebel fighters
from the Oromo Liberation Front (OLF) and Ogadan National
Liberation Front (ONLF), as well as unspecified help from
Arab counties. Despite this, he was very confident that if
Ethiopia engages the CIC following an attack on Baidoa, that
the conflict would be short-lived. "we will not go in for
the long-term," he said, adding, "We will do it quickly."
LTG Samora claimed that, "the Islamists do not have the
support of the people," and that they are fundamentally weak
since their military strength comes from Ethiopian rebels.
He acknowledged that the ENDF is currently training 4 units
of TFG soldiers in Baidoa, but that they desperately need
equipment to fight advancing UIC. He said that the ENDF is
prepared to supply light arms and ammunition, but that the
TFG army needs larger equipment in order to defeat the CIC on
its own.

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ETHIOPIAN OPPOSITION DISCUSS POLITICAL SPACE
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7. (SBU) In response to SFRC Staffer Phlelan's question about
political improvements following their decision to join
parliament, opposition parliamentarians were divided (as
usual) in their answers. While UEDP-Medhin Lidetu praised the
GoE for opening up political space and engaging the
opposition on democratic development, others were more
critical. OFDM chief Bulcha, in a decidedly negative tone,
said that the best thing about joining parliament was that
that he was "not thrown in jail" (a reference to the jailed
CUD leadership). Pressed by the Charge, the more resilient
parliamentarians conceded that in fact the inter-party
dialogues seemed to be progressing, but that the most
important factors - reform of the National Election Board
(NEB) and the media law - were yet to be finalized. Lidetu
said that he current NEB does not have the confidence of the
voters, but that he expects the GOE to appoint new,
independent leadership. He pointed out that once discussions
on the NEB and media law are concluded, fair competition will
be possible in next year's local elections. Oromo leaders
Bulcha and Merera were less positive, emphasizing that their
party members continued to be jailed. Bulcha told Phelan
that, regarding the detention of Oromos, PM Meles told him
the GoE would "arrest them, investigate, and then release
those that are not (proved to be) OLF." Merera added that he
feels "the democracy process is frozen," and that he sees no
benefit by having chosen to participate in parliament. Ayele
demonstrated that he was in between these two extremes. On

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one hand, he said that the CUD has "suffered more than any
other party. Our supporters were jailed, beaten and
tortured." However, since the reformation of the CUDP in
early 2006, he reported that the party is now in dialogue and
working with the government. Specifically, he mentioned that
"before we could not gather (our) people together to talk, or
we would be thrown in jail," but recently in a meeting with
PM Meles, Ayele was told, "You can now organize, if it is
done peacefully."


8. (SBU) Information Minister Bereket told SFRC Staffer
Phelan that the Ethiopian-American relationship is "at its
best right now." Economically, Ethiopia is on the right
track, he said, and cited economic growth rates and falling
unemployment. Bereket said that focus of the GoE right now
is improving practices of good governance. He added,
however, that Ethiopia is culturally and religiously complex
and that an improving political situation requires that all
parties to work together. He said that the GoE is committed
to changing, learning from its past shortcomings. As an
example, he referred to the violence of November 2005, in
which "remnants of the former Derg military regime organized
street violence and created a bad situation in which many
people died, including 7 police officers." He said that the
GoE formed an independent commission to look into the
situation and the GoE,s response. Regarding the trial of
the CUD leadership, Phelan stressed the need to resolve the
matter quickly and to reduce some of the more serious and
difficult to prove charges. However, Bekeket responded that
the GoE remains convinced that those in jail are responsible
for the violent clashes last year and that the trial will
continue on until the courts render a verdict.

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COMMENT: COLLISION COURSE IN SOMALIA, DEMOCRACY TAKING ROOT
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9. (C) SFRC Staffer Phelan's meetings in Ethiopia primarily
concentrated on the current situation in Somalia and the
democratic process following the events of 2005. Regarding
Somalia, it was clear from GoE officials that Ethiopia is
prepared to confront the CIC and that, if or when Ethiopia
engages, it intends to eliminate the threat of jihadists. On
internal matters, Phalen stressed the importance of
continuing the multi-party dialogues as a means of creating
greater space for opposition parties and strengthening
Ethiopia's developing democracy. Phelan also pressed the GoE
to quickly resolve the ongoing trial of the CUD leaders and
to reduce some of the more serious and difficult to prove
charges. However, the GoE remains steadfast that those in
jail are responsible for the widespread violence and
destruction and that the trial must run its course. Bereket
stressed that, in the end, whatever verdict is decided, the
GoE will not appeal.
HUDDLESTON