C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 03 ADDIS ABABA 002309

SIPDIS

SIPDIS

E.O. 12958: DECL: 08/21/2016
TAGS: PGOV PREL PHUM KDEM ET
SUBJECT: ETHIOPIA: OROMO OPPOSITION LEADERS DISCUSS
POLITICAL SITUATION AT HOME AND ABROAD


Classified By: CHARGE JANET WILGUS FOR REASONS 1.4 (B) AND (D).


1. (C) Summary: At an August 19 lunch hosted by Charge
Huddleston, Oromo leaders from the opposition ONC and OFDM as
well as former president Negaso Gidada indicated that most
Oromos favor participation in the Parliament by Oromo
opposition parties. According to these opposition leaders,
two of whom recently visited the U.S., the OLF continues to
enjoy significant popular support in the Diaspora, but there
is considerable debate over the OLF's recent political
alliance with the Amhara-dominated CUD North America. Most
agreed, however, that the walls that have long existed
between Oromo and Amhara exile communities are slowly coming
down. ONC and OFDM leaders related problems that had
occurred during joint visits to Oromiya by ruling party and
opposition leaders, but noted that the trips were continuing.
ONC leader Merera Gudina told the Charge that the ongoing
trial of CUD leaders was clearly political and needed a
political solution. He and other opposition leaders agreed
that a significant release of Oromo prisoners -- which the
GOE is reportedly considering for Ethiopian New Year in
September -- could convince popular opinion that the ruling
party was serious about reconciliation. Opposition leaders
expect the political dialogue between the ruling party and
opposition parties, including the UEDF/ONC and OFDM, to
resume soon and deal with reform of both the media law and
the National Electoral Board. End Summary.


2. (C) Charge Huddleston hosted a lunch Aug. 19 for Oromo
opposition leaders who had recently returned from travel to
the U.S. Invitees included Dr. Merera Gudina of the Oromo
National Congress, Bulcha Demeksa of the Oromo Federal
Democratic Movement and Dr. Negaso Gidada, an independent MP
and former President of the Ethiopia. Ambassadors from
Finland, Germany and the European Union also joined the
group, along with Pol/Econ Chief (notetaker). The Oromo
leaders have been participating, along with United Ethiopian
Democ

ratic Forces (UEDF) Chairman Beyene Petros, in a
political dialogue with the ruling party on reforms to key
democratic institutions.

MOST OROMOS ABROAD FAVOR ENGAGEMENT AND ALLIANCE WITH CUD
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3. (C) Merera and Bulcha had recently returned from a major
gathering of Oromo intellectuals in Minnesota hosted by the
Oromo Studies Organization. The event had allowed the
Ethiopian leaders to take the pulse of politically active
Oromos in the Diaspora. Merera explained that the Diaspora
remained a key factor in Ethiopian politics because the
ruling party continued to intimidate those in Ethiopia who
would otherwise offer financial support to opposition
parties. Political parties in the Diaspora, for their part,
continued to rely on allies within Ethiopia to maintain
political involvement on the ground in the country.
According to Merera, the "Chinese Wall" that has long
separated Oromo exile communities from their Amhara
counterparts is beginning to come down. (NOTE: Oromos make
up approximately 40 percent of the Ethiopian population while
Amharas account for about 30 percent.) The Oromo Liberation
Front (OLF) continued to dominate Diaspora politics, Merera
added. While there were some notable Oromo and Amhara
figures who opposed the OLF's surprising alliance with the
Amharas in the recently formed Alliance for Freedom and
Democracy (AFD), most Oromos seemed to favor growing
cooperation between the two groups. Negaso agreed. For his
part, Bulcha claimed that the AFD had so far had little
impact.


4. (C) OFDM Chairman Bulcha Demeksa reported receiving
significant support from U.S.-based Oromos for his decision
to participate in Parliament. Merera agreed that most Oromos
favored engagement even if they strongly opposed the ruling
Ethiopian People's Revolutionary Democratic Front (EPRDF).
Amharas and Gurages, he added, tended to oppose participation
in Parliament. Bulcha added, however, that some Oromos in
Minnesota had accused Bulcha of "seducing young people" to
believe that peaceful change in Ethiopia was possible,
arguing that the EPRDF would never leave power peacefully.

JOINT COMMISSION VISITS TO OROMIYA PROBLEMATIC, BUT STILL ON
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5. (C) Merera told the Charge that his party was "not seeing
dividends yet" from visits to Oromiya by a joint commission
composed of representatives from the ONC, OFDM and the Oromo
People's Democratic Organization (OPDO), the EPRDF's Oromo
affiliate. The ONC Chairman complained that there had been

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no releases of imprisoned party supporters, and that the OPDO
reps had refused to visit the town of Ambo, where significant
problems had occurred. The ruling party representatives had
also refused to visit prisoners in the region. Bulcha
recounted that police had rounded up employees from the hotel
where OFDM reps were staying while the commission visited the
town of Gimbi, telling the employees that the they were
"harboring agents of the OLF." The employees were quickly
released thereafter. Merera also indicated OPDO cadres had
harassed some witnesses called by the visiting commission,
but added that "information is making its way to the
commission anyway." He told the Charge that the
investigative trip had briefly fallen apart over the issue of
skipping Ambo, but Merera had negotiated with the ruling
party to stop in Ambo on the way back to Addis and thus
rescued the mission.

AMNESTY FOR IMPRISONED OROMOS COULD PROMOTE RECONCILIATION
-------------- --------------


6. (C) The Charge told the Oromo leaders that she believed
the GOE was working on a list of prisoners to be pardoned or
amnestied on the occasion of Ethiopian New Year (Sept. 11).
OLF leaders might well be among those pardoned. Bulcha
responded that such a gesture could make a significant,
positive impact on the current situation. Negaso agreed but
added that the release would have to be large-scale in order
to affect public opinion. Merera remarked that a significant
amnesty could convince the public that the GOE was serious
about promoting reconciliation. He added that "if the
intention of the GOE was to teach detainees a lesson, they
have been there long enough." He hoped that the
international community would press harder for the release of
political prisoners. (Note: Prison Fellowship, a well
connected local NGO, believes there are about 400-500
political prisoners in Oromiya. End Note.)


7. (C) Merera argued that the ongoing trial of CUD leaders
was clearly political. Even PM Meles himself had indicated
before during discussions in September 2005 that he had ample
evidence of wrong-doing during and after the election
campaign -- prior to November unrest -- but had held off on
arresting opposition leaders in order to search for a
political solution. The ONC chair noted that he himself and
other leaders still at liberty had engaged in the same
campaign criticisms as those now detained, but had avoided
jail by entering Parliament. A political solution was still
the right way to deal with the problem, he concluded.

POLITICAL DIALOGUE WILL RESUME ON MEDIA, ELECTION BOARD
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8. (C) Opposition leaders told the Charge they expect the
political dialogue between the ruling party and opposition
parties, including the UEDF/ONC and OFDM, to resume soon.
The next items on the agenda are reform of the media law and
the National Electoral Board. While they remained committed
to continuing the dialogue, they pointed out that real
agreement had not been reached on amendments to the
Parliamentary rules of procedure, which had been implemented
with only some of the changes the opposition sought. The
Charge told the group that the USG had funded a useful study
of best practices on media regulation from selected
countries, and would now fund a comparison between those best
practices and Ethiopia's draft media law. She urged that the
opposition leaders prepare carefully for the next round of
discussions so as to take full advantage of the opportunity.

EYES TURNING TO LOCAL ELECTIONS
--------------


9. (C) Bulcha emphasized the political importance of the next
local elections. He claimed that his party was already
preparing to participate in the polls in 2007, but noted that
the ruling party had said nothing in public about when they
would occur. The Charge replied that the GOE had indicated
in private that May or June 2007 was the most likely period.
Bulcha emphasized the need for the international community to
press the GOE to hold the local elections, since the ruling
party did not appear eager to do so. All agreed on the need
to proceed quickly with restructuring and capacity-building
at the NEB to which the GOE has already agreed in private, as
well as the appointment of a new board. The Charge relayed
the assurances she had received from the Prime Minister that
the EPRDF would consult with the opposition on the
appointment of the next board.


10. (C) EU Ambassador Tim Clarke noted that he had been told

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during his recent visit to Dire Dawa that local elections
there would be held in January 2007. (Note: Dire Dawa is
Ethiopia's second city and its own metropolitan region. End
note.)
WILGUS