SOMALI PERMREP REPORTS THAT BELED WEYNE REMAINS

S E C R E T SECTION 01 OF 02 ADDIS ABABA 002203 SIPDIS SIPDIS DEPARTMENT FOR AF/E LONDON, PARIS, ROME FOR AFRICA WATCHER CJTF-HOA FOR POLAD E.O. 12958: DECL: 08/11/2016 TAGS: PREL PINS MOPS SO ET UG SUBJECT: SOMALI PERMREP REPORTS THAT BELED WEYNE REMAINS UNDER TFG'S CONTROL REF: A. ADDIS ABABA 2178 ¶B. ADDIS ABABA 2170 ¶C. ADDIS ABABA 2093 Classified By: CHARGE D'AFFAIRES VICKI HUDDLESTON. REASON: 1.4 (D). ¶1. (C) SUMMARY. On August 10, deputy pol-econ counselor met with Ambassador Abdulkarim Farah, Permanent Representative of the Transitional Federal Government of Somalia (TFG) to the African Union and the TFG's Ambassador to Ethiopia. Farah dismissed press reports that Union of Islamic Court (UIC) forces had captured Beled Weyne, citing the nearby presence of Ethiopian forces and media bias by BBC's Somali service. Farah noted that IGAD defense chiefs are to meet next week in Nairobi, and expressed optimism that they would succeed in preparing a detailed plan for an IGAD peace support operation in Somalia, likely to be led by Ugandan troops. END SUMMARY. ¶2. (C) Separately, Bereket Simon, Public Relations Advisor to Ethiopian Prime Minister Meles Zenawi, while not contradicting reports of the capture of Beled Weyne, downplayed its significance, saying the GOE would wait to see how the TFG-UIC talks turned out. -------------- -------------- REPORTS OF BELED WEYNE'S FALL TO UIC ARE EXAGGERATED -------------- -------------- ¶3. (C) Amb. Farah dismissed recent press reports (e.g., BBC) that the Union of Islamic Courts (UIC) had captured Beled Weyne. Noting that Beled Weyne was his home town, Farah explained that UIC-affiliated militia had only taken over a single house belonging to the governor, but that Beled Weyne remained under the TFG's control. Farah reiterated concerns about the accuracy of BBC reporting on Somalia, noting that the head of BBC's Somali service was the cousin of UIC leader Sheikh Hassan Dahir Aweys. ¶4. (S) Amb. Farah noted that Ethiopian military units remained within 15 kilometers of the border town of Beled Weyne and that Ethiopian intelligence officers were working within the office of TFG Prime Minister Ghedi to provide the TFG with situation reports. Otherwise, he said, Ethiopian forces had departed from their position to the west of Baidoa, as the military threat from the UIC was now reduced. Farah agreed with the assessment of senior Ethiopian officials (refs A-B) that the TFG could now defend itself against UIC forces and no longer faced immediate threat. ¶5. (C) On the internal political front, Farah confirmed that TFG President Abdullahi Yusuf, Parliamentary Speaker Sharif Hassan Sheikh Adan, and Prime Minister Ali Mohamed Ghedi had now been reconciled, following the August 5 visit of Ethiopian Foreign Minister Seyoum (ref B). The TFG had agreed to reduce its cabinet ministers from over 100 to 31, and to produce a three-month plan of action that would be reviewed by parliament at the end of that period, he said. Discussions were now underway, he said, on which ministerial positions would be eliminated. Farah expressed some concern about succession should anything happen to President Yusuf, who he noted was an octogenarian with liver problems. -------------- -------------- IGAD MILITARY STAFF TO DISCUSS IGASOM PLAN NEXT WEEK -------------- -------------- ¶6. (C) Defense chiefs from IGAD member states would meet in Nairobi the week of August 14 to discuss a detailed mission plan for a possible IGAD peace support mission to Somalia (IGASOM),Farah said. Farah noted that he had met with the Ugandan defense minister on August 9, and that Uganda was prepared to contribute troops to IGASOM. Asked when such an operation could be deployed, and its duration, Amb. Farah said he hoped an international peacekeeping mission could be deployed within several months, assuming the UNSC agreed to modify the arms embargo on Somalia. IGASOM, once deployed, would likely last two to three years, he added, culminating in national elections and the formation of a new Somali government. ¶7. (C) COMMENT: Ambassador's Farah's observation that the ADDIS ABAB 00002203 002 OF 002 TFG no longer faces imminent military defeat is consistent with recent assessments by Ethiopia's top military officer (ref A). It is possible that Beled Weyne has fallen to the UIC, but Ethiopia is biding its time, hoping that the region and international community will yet be able to broker an understanding between the TFG and UIC. END COMMENT. HUDDLESTON