MELES ON SOMALIA: NEED UNSC ENDORSEMENT OF IGAD

C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 02 ADDIS ABABA 002114 SIPDIS SIPDIS DEPARTMENT FOR AF AND AF/E - A/S FRAZER AND AMB. YAMAMOTO E.O. 12958: DECL: 07/31/2016 TAGS: KPKO PREL MOPS SO ET SUBJECT: MELES ON SOMALIA: NEED UNSC ENDORSEMENT OF IGAD PEACE SUPPORT SOON REF: ADDIS ABABA 2041 Classified By: Charge Vicki Huddleston for reasons 1.4 B and D. ¶1. (C) Summary and Action Report. Prime Minister Meles told Charge Huddleston that the Transitional Federal Government (TFG) in Somalia is unlikely to collapse under pressure from the Islamic Courts Union (ICU) if the UNSC welcomes a Ugandan battalion that would stabilize Baidoa. President Museveni wants the UN blessing and needs transportation for the deployment. Ethiopia plans to train TFG troops in small groups but would prefer to train the TFG in Ethiopia once IGAD deploys to Baidoa. ACTION REQUEST: Post urges action on a partial lifting of the arms embargo to preclude a possible collapse of the TFG or a military confrontation between the Islamic Courts and Ethiopians. USG and international condemnation of the arms build-up of the Islamic Courts would slow down the Islamic Courts ability to expand further south and north. Ethiopian troops are no longer in Somalia. End summary. ¶2. (C) During a call on Prime Minister Meles to introduce the new USAID Ethiopia Director, and accompanied by CJTF-HOA Commander Rear Admiral Hunt and DCM, Charge Huddleston commended the PM on Ethiopian restraint in implementing the strategy to contain the ICU and build up the TFG. However, the situation remains critical, she said, and there is need to move forward quickly in assisting the TFG. ¶3. (C) PM Meles stated that although TFG was weakened by recent in-fighting over the Prime Minister due to its clan structure, it is not about to collapse. Nevertheless, he said, Baidoa has been infiltrated by islamist extremists, including foreign jihadists, although some of these have now been apprehended. Foreign intervention in Somalia is worrying, Meles said, which includes support for the ICU from the Sudanese, Djiboutians, Eritreans, Libyans, Egyptians. There are unconfirmed reports of old U.S. equipment arriving in Somalia, transported by Eritrea, possibly, Meles speculated, coming from Egypt. The ICU will continue to try extend its influence, particularly in the south, Meles said. It is doing a particularly good job of publicity and is trying to turn the current conflict into a proxy Eritrean-Ethiopian war, a dangerous prospect for Ethiopia. While there are limits on what Eritrea can do, even with strong foreign backing, the more serious impact is psychological and resonates throughout the region. ¶4. (C) There are weaknesses within both the TFG and the ICU, Meles said, and it is important to keep the ICU from gaining momentum, as internal divisions will soon appear. The question, he said, is, which group will crack internally first. RADM Hunt stated that according to reports he has received, the ICU has more intellectual and leadership weight than the TFG. Meles responded that Ethiopia is putting three teams of trainers in Somalia, one in Puntland and two in the Baidoa region, in order to assist the TFG. Uganda under IGAD should provide the support to the TFG in Baidoa. President Museveni, however wants a UN blessing. Perhaps, Meles speculated, this blessing could be in the form of a UNSC statement welcoming the Uganda-IGAD assistance, in order to avoid the UN bureaucracy. This is needed within weeks, Meles stressed. Some help with lift of the batallion would also be needed, but in priciple President Museveni is prepared to send troops. ¶5. (C) Meles also raised the problem of arms shipments into Somalia. In addition to the two airplanes that landed in Mogadishu (widely reported in the press),there are three ships that departed Eritrea and have or will land along the coast north and south of Mogadishu. Meles asked for CJTF-HOA assistance to interdict such traffic. RADM Hunt responded that currently his assets are redeployed to the Middle East but that future patrols off the coast of Somalia and further south are planned. Meles asked if the US could put more pressure on those that openly supply arms to the ICU. Public condemnation of the illegal arms flows would at least slow the arms build up, Meles said. ¶6. (C) Ambassador Huddleston said that it would be necessary to get IGAD, which is meeting in Nairobi August 1, to move quickly and get UNSC approval for a peace support contingent. ADDIS ABAB 00002114 002 OF 002 Meles stated that Uganda is ready to help; that he had spoken with President Museveni, but that a UN decision is needed quickly for a limited mandate to provide a secure environment. Assistance would be needed from international partners as well, such as lift for IGASOM. ¶7. (C) Comment. It is critical to reinforce the governance capacity of the TFG as well as its ability to protect itself. The UNSC welcoming Uganda and lifting the arms embargo for IGASOM could stop the trend toward creation of an Ismalic State in southern Somalia. In addition, lifting the arms embargo will stop the false justification of those who claim that arming the Islamic Courts is on par with defending the legitimate government. End comment. HUDDLESTON