SOMALI TFG SURVIVES ASSASSINATION, DEFECTIONS, AND

C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 03 ADDIS ABABA 002093 SIPDIS SIPDIS DEPARTMENT FOR AF/E LONDON, PARIS, ROME FOR AFRICA WATCHER E.O. 12958: DECL: 07/31/2016 TAGS: PREL PINS PINR KPKO AU SO ER ET SUBJECT: SOMALI TFG SURVIVES ASSASSINATION, DEFECTIONS, AND ATTEMPTED NO-CONFIDENCE VOTE REF: A. ADDIS ABABA 2042 ¶B. ADDIS ABABA 2041 Classified By: CHARGE D'AFFAIRES VICKI HUDDLESTON. REASON: 1.4 (B),(D) . ¶1. (C) SUMMARY. Over the last three days, Somalia's Transitional Federal Government (TFG) has weathered the assassination of one government minister, the resignation of nearly 20 others, and a no-confidence vote by 49 per cent of its parliamentarians. According to Somalia's PermRep to the African Union, Eritrea (with Libyan funding) continues to provide weapons and supplies to Union of Islamic Courts fighters: at least seven suspected supply flights have landed over the last three days in Mogadishu, and three ships (one carrying 500 Eritreans) have reportedly sailed for Somalia. On the eve of an expected IGAD ministerial-level meeting in Nairobi, Somalia's PermRep to the African Union anticipates that IGAD will formally endorse a detailed plan for an international peacekeeping operation in Somalia, for consideration by the AU Peace and Security Council and ultimately the UN Security Council. Farah expressed concern about Egyptian ambivalence toward the TFG, and about the role the League of Arab States may be playing in Mogadishu. END SUMMARY. ¶2. (U) DCM and deputy pol-econ counselor met July 31 with Abdulkarim Farah, Ambassador of Somalia's TFG to Ethiopia and the TFG's Permanent Representative to the African Union. Farah was accompanied by two Puntland State of Somalia ministers: Minister of Finance Mohamed Ali Yosuf, and Vice Minister of Port, Transport and Marine Resources Abdulwali Abdulrahman Gayre. -------------- MINISTER'S ASSASSINS REPORT OTHERS AT LARGE -------------- ¶3. (C) Amb. Farah said that "the TFG has survived," despite several difficult events over the preceding three days, including the July 28 killing of Minister of State Affairs Abdalla Derrow Issak, the resignation of nearly 20 other TFG ministers, and an attempt by parliament to pass a motion of no-confidence in Prime Minister Ali Mohamed Ghedi: -- Authorities had already captured six suspects who had infiltrated the TFG's base at Baidoa; they reported being paid for the assassination and alleged that 21 additional assassins were targeting other officials, Farah said. Prime Minister Ali Mohamed Ghedi believed that either he or President Abdullahi Yusuf would be targeted next, Farah added. He said it was possible that the TFG could relocate from Baidoa to the relative safety of Puntland, "where the TFG was born." -- Politically, the TFG was secure for at least another six months, Farah said, having defeated recent parliamentary efforts to pass a vote of no-confidence in PM Ghedi; the Transitional Charter allowed such a motion only every six months, he explained. While 139 of 257 parliamentarians would have been needed to adopt such a vote, only 126 MPs had voted for the motion. Farah attributed the no-confidence motion to approximately 20 leaders in Mogadishu who had previously sought to take power by force, and who had pledged to reject whomever was nominated to replace PM Ghedi. Farah said the recent resignation of nearly 20 TFG ministers did not weaken the TFG: "President Yusuf is a strong man; we need 30 more to resign," he said. There had been nearly 80 ministers, and all remained members of parliament even if they resigned their ministerial position. -- The Union of Islamic Courts (UIC) now had its momentum broken, and was suffering from a crisis of leadership, he said. Former interim (i.e., Transitional National Government) Prime Minister Ali Khalif Galayhd had left university lecturing in Minnesota to travel to Mogadishu and negotiate with the UIC, Farah said, adding that Galayhd wanted to become prime minister again. -- Farah also asserted that the approximately 120 militia members who had recently defected to the UIC had subsequently reversed their decision. Now sheltered in Farah's home town ADDIS ABAB 00002093 002 OF 003 of Beled Weyne, the militia sought to return to Baidoa. Their continued allegiance to the TFG resulted from disillusionment with the ICU: "What they saw, and what they expected, were different," Farah said. -------------- ERITREAN SUPPLIES ARRIVE BY AIR AND BY SEA -------------- ¶4. (C) Amb. Farah appealed for international assistance to monitor Somali airspace, asserting that Eritrea continued to supply UIC forces. While there had been only a single commercial flight from Dubai, from July 29-31 seven chartered flights suspected of carrying supplies for the ICU had arrived at Mogadishu; in some cases, the same aircraft had made two flights in the same day, he said. In addition, Amb. Farah said, "international intelligence" had reported three ships leaving the Eritrean port of Asmara: the TFG could confirm that one ship carrying 500 Eritrean forces had docked July 29 at Warshiikh (approximately 50 km north of Mogadishu); the location of the other two ships was unknown. Eritrea was providing the ICU with logistical support so the ICU could expand its reach toward Puntland, Farah said, but President Yusuf had pledged that the TFG "will try our best to resist." Libya was financing the Eritrean effort, Farah said. ¶5. (C) Ethiopian insurgents also continue to enter Somalia, Farah said, asserting that 13 vehicles carrying Ogaden National Liberation Front (ONLF) fighters had been sighted crossing the border toward Beled Weyne. -------------- - IGAD FOREIGN MINISTERS EXPECTED TO ENDORSE PKO -------------- - ¶6. (C) Amb. Farah expected the extraordinary ministerial-level session of the Inter-Governmental Authority on Development (IGAD),convening August 1 in Nairobi, to endorse a detailed plan for a peacekeeping operation in Somalia (IGASOM) as anticipated by the UN Security Council, which he said had shown tremendous support of the TFG. According to Farah, a nine-day AU/IGAD/League of Arab States fact-finding mission to Somalia would conclude that, within Somalia, only Mogadishu opposed the deployment of peacekeeping forces. Farah added that even Puntland, which had its own security forces, would endorse a peacekeeping mission "out of solidarity" with the TFG. Farah said he was pushing the AU to convene a meeting of the AU Peace and Security Council immediately after (i.e., by August 4) the IGAD ministerial, in order to endorse IGAD's conclusions. ¶7. (C) Asked about the TFG's relations with Somaliland authorities, Amb. Farah noted that residents of Somaliland "are our brothers but Somaliland is a part of Somalia." The TFG supported Somaliland's effort to promote peace and reconstruction for its people, but could not accept secession. Nevertheless, while the TFG opposed Somaliland's efforts at seeking recognition in international organizations, the TFG deliberately avoided any provocative action or statement toward Somaliland, Farah said. ¶8. (SBU) Farah and Puntland Vice Minister Gayre noted that while Hargeisa's airport was commonly used by most expatriates returning to Somalia, Puntland authorities were developing airports and seaports at Galcayo and Bossaso, in consultation with Ethiopia and with funding from the EU. Minister Gayre said that Puntland welcomed all Somalis, and had even attracted foreign traders from Ethiopia, Yemen, and Congo. Gayre said he wished the United States were more active in Puntland, like the EU. -------------- AMBIVALENCE TOWARD EGYPT, ARAB LEAGUE -------------- ¶9. (C) According to Farah, Ethiopia (one of 15 PSC members) would likely not be required to recuse itself from the AU PSC, particularly as decisions would be taken by consensus. He expressed concern about the positions of Djibouti and of Egypt. For eight years, he said, Egypt had been ambivalent toward the TFG, neither supporting nor opposing PSC actions ADDIS ABAB 00002093 003 OF 003 on Somalia, and seeking to weaken PSC communiques. Farah said he would personally advocate Somalia's withdrawal from the League of Arab States, which he said was not as eager to play a constructive role as IGAD. The League now had an office in Mogadishu, but its activities were unclear, he said. The League had renewed pledges made in 2003 to provide USD 56 million to Somalia, but had not actually provided any funds to the TFG, he said. -------------- --- ETHIOPIAN PRESS LOBBYING FOR IGASOM INTERVENTION -------------- --- ¶10. (U) In the leadup to the IGAD ministerial, Ethiopian and AU officials have been advocating a peacekeeping operation and a revision to the UNSC-imposed arms embargo on Somalia. Consistent with the AU Summit's July 2 Declaration on Somalia and previous AU PSC communiques, AU Peace and Security Commissioner Said Djinnit was quoted in local media as calling for revision of the arms embargo to allow the expeditious deployment of IGASOM, following a July 25 briefing by Ambassador Farah to the PSC (refs A-B). Over the last week, Ethiopian state-run media have featured lead articles highlighting GOE Minister Bereket Simon discussing the fundamentalist threat posed by the UIC's al-Qaida and AIAI-affiliated leaders, Harari Islamic Supreme Council Chairman Hajji Ibrahim Abdurrahman rejecting the UIC's dismantling of the legitimate TFG, and GOE reports on Eritrea's active support for the UIC in Somalia. The July 28 edition of the state-run "Ethiopian Herald" featured a lead story entitled, "International Community Does Not Wish To See TGS Blown Away by Jihadists: Meles." The article highlighted remarks by PM Meles that "Ethiopia is sending a clear message to the international community to get tackling Islamic Courts in Somalia or 'we will.'" (NOTE: Charge and CJTF-HOA Commander Rear Admiral Richard Hunt's July 31 meeting with PM Meles will be reported septel.) ¶11. (SBU) BIO-NOTE: Puntland Vice Minister of Port, Transport and Marine Resources Abdulwali Abdulrahman Gayre is a U.S. citizen who studied in Minnesota. He and Minister of Finance Mohamed Ali Yosuf have been invited to attend a conference on Puntland in Minnesota. Like many Somali officials, Yosuf travels on an Ethiopian passport. Amb. Farah (a UK citizen) noted that many UIC extremists traveled on Ethiopian passports through Dubai. He noted that Somalia had given two passports (one regular, one diplomatic) to Ethiopian Prime Minister Meles, one of which was on public display in a museum. ¶12. (C) COMMENT: Assassination in Baidoa, the mass resignation of ministers, and a nearly successful vote of no-confidence highlight the political vulnerability of Somali's Transitional Federal Government, even as it faces significant security threats from Islamic extremists and the UIC's suspected foreign backers. It is increasingly urgent to approve an IGAD mission to support and train the TFG. Failure to do so could result in further weakening and defections within the TFG. If IGAD foreign ministers adopt a peacekeeping plan, they will be giving fruition to an operation originally proposed two years ago. In addition to Ambassador Farah's request for international assistance to monitor its airspace, Post recommends interagency efforts to monitor Somalia's coastline in order to prevent or interdict further shipments of troops or supplies to the UIC, which risk destabilizing not only the TFG but the region. END COMMENT. HUDDLESTON