ETHIOPIA: ANALYSIS OF OLF CONNECTIONS TO TERRORISM

S E C R E T SECTION 01 OF 04 ADDIS ABABA 001763 SIPDIS SIPDIS DEPARTMENT FOR AF/E DESK OFFICER MIKE GONZALES AND AF LONDON, PARIS, ROME FOR AFRICA WATCHER, PRM/A:TRUSCH, A/CT:TKUSHNER E.O. 12958: DECL: 06/20/2026 TAGS: PTER PREL PGOV ET ER SUBJECT: ETHIOPIA: ANALYSIS OF OLF CONNECTIONS TO TERRORISM REF: SECSTATE 96301 Classified By: Charge Vicki Huddleston for reasons 1.4 (b) and (d). ¶1. (S) SUMMARY: In response to reftel request for intel analysis on the Oromo Liberation Front (OLF),Post has gathered information from local sources, including clandestine reports, to respond to the questions posed. The information collected suggests that the OLF has, and continues to, support armed resistance to the Government of Ethiopia (GoE) and continues to train and prepare for military engagements. There is less evidence to suggest that civilian populations are indiscriminately targeted in OLF armed activity. However, the GoE and some clandestine reports suggest that the OLF has likely been involved in attacks that have harmed civilians. The OLF continues to actively operate in Ethiopia with significant contributions of resources and support from among the Oromo population in Ethiopia, the Oromo diaspora in the US, as well as the Government of Eritrea. END SUMMARY -------------- LIMITED TARGETING OF CIVILIAN POPULATION -------------- ¶2. (S) In response to questions posed in paragraph 3 of reftel: i. Post does not have any evidence to suggest the OLF has been involved in hijacking of civilian conveyances (e.g., bus, train, aircraft). However, in 2003 there were numerous reports of bombs placed on trains, on railway tracks and in a railway station on the route from Addis Ababa to Djibouti. The only reported loss of life from these attacks occurred on September 23, 2003, when a bomb was placed on a passenger train that was carrying Ethiopian military personnel. Reports of precise numbers vary, but at least 2 people were killed in this attack. The GoE, as well as the GoD, have suspected the OLF in this and other bombings. While the OLF denies this, clandestine reports indicate the OLF was likely involved. ii. Post does not have any evidence to suggest the OLF has been involved in kidnapping of civilians for any purpose. However, there have been clandestine reports that the OLF routinely targets government officials, their offices, and private property belonging to the Oromo Peoples Democratic Organization (OPDO),one of the constituent members of the ruling Ethiopian Peoples Revolutionary Democratic Front (EPRDF) coalition. These reports indicate however, that non-government related civilians are not deliberately targeted. iii. Although Post does not have any independent verification that the OLF has participated in other violent attacks (such as those using explosives, firearms, or other weapons or dangerous devices) against civilians or civilian property, the GoE maintains that the OLF, in cooperation with other indigenous insurgent groups, has carried out attacks targeting civilians. Additionally, clandestine reporting has suggested that the OLF likely had some involvement in a series of bombings of six restaurants and hotels in Ethiopia from 1996 to 2002. Casualties from these bombings were minimal, although precise numbers are not available. iv. Post does not have any evidence to suggest the OLF has been involved in efforts to develop, acquire, traffic in, or use weapons of mass destruction (including without limitation any chemical or biological agent, or nuclear or radiological weapon or device) for any purpose. v. Although post does not have any independent verification that the OLF has threatened to, attempted to, or conspired to engage in any of the above-mentioned activities, the GoE maintains that the OLF, in cooperation with other indigenous insurgent groups, has carried out attacks targeting civilians. Clandestine reports have confirmed that in the recent past, the OLF has likely engaged in nuisance bombings involving grenades and other small explosives. It is reported that these explosions have occurred in relatively isolated areas late at night and appear to be designed to ADDIS ABAB 00001763 002 OF 004 minimize casualties. Further, this style of explosion is relatively common in Ethiopia and it is difficult to assign responsibility to specific incidents. Recent 2006 bombings in Addis Ababa resulted in loss of civilian lives and numerous injuries. Although evidence to indicate who was responsible is unavailable, these bombings which included the bus station and the office of Ethiopian Airways, resembled the nuisance bombings mentioned above. ¶3. (S) There is a very limited amount of verifiable information available regarding the nature and targeting of OLF violent activity. The OLF openly states that one of the tactics they employ to achieve their goal of self determination for the Oromo people is armed struggle against military targets. However, the OLF also states on its website that it is opposed to targeting civilians in these armed activities. Clandestine sources have substantiated this, indicating that since 09/11/2001, the OLF has become more restrictive in its targeting in order to avoid being labeled a terrorist organization. This conflicts with the GoE view that the OLF indiscriminately targets civilians, rather than military targets. The GoE has long accused the OLF of a variety of violent activities involving civilians. GoE investigations into such incidents have generally failed to yield conclusive public findings or criminal charges, however. The OLF has not claimed responsibility for, and has in fact denied involvement in such incidents. The OLF, in response, has suggested that the GoE has in fact been responsible for these reported attacks, which are designed to frame the OLF. Post has not been able to verify or refute any of the GoEQs claims that the OLF targets civilians. ¶4. (S) An example of the conflicting information received on OLF involvement in civilian attacks was the recent spate of bombings in Addis Ababa and nearby cities in Oromia, which reportedly killed 4 civilians and injured many others. The GoE was quick to assign blame to the OLF, Eritrea and the CUD for placing these bombs throughout the city without regard for civilian life. The OLF denied involvement and blamed the GoE itself for the bombings, suggesting that the GoE was seeking to smear groups such as the OLF. In meetings with Pol/Econ section officers, Oromo National Congress (ONC) party leaders who are sympathetic to the Oromo political cause said that there are individuals or groups formerly of the OLF that do not support the OLFQs recent softening of armed resistance, and have been acting unilaterally. These individuals or groups may still be acting on behalf of the OLF. The GoEQs allegations against the OLF in the case of the recent bombings have been further weakened by clandestine source reports stating that elements of the National Intelligence and Security Service have not found evidence to support accusations against the OLF. -------------- - OLF UNABASHED IN ATTACKS ON ETHIOPIAN MILITARY -------------- - ¶5. (S) There is little doubt that the OLF has planned, participated in, and supported activities of the nature described in paragraph 3 of reftel against military targets. However, the GoE has denied the OLF has been successful in striking military targets, claiming that the OLF is incapable of forming a serious threat to the Ethiopian military forces. That said, according to clandestine reporting, the Ethiopian National Defense Forces (ENDF) has grown concerned by OLF successes in recruiting new supporters from among the security services and the ENDF itself. While these penetrations likely do not pose a threat to the integrity of the ENDF, Post assesses that the GoE has increasingly lost confidence in its ethnic Oromo military and security service members. In addition to officially declaring Qarmed resistanceQ against the Ethiopian military, it is also widely known and confirmed by clandestine sources the OLF has cooperated with the Ogaden National Liberation Front (ONLF), an armed group based in the Ogaden region of Ethiopia. Clandestine reports indicate that the OLF and ONLF have coordinated activities and provided limited mutual support to one another, and have occasionally jointly engaged the Ethiopian military in the Ogaden region. The OLF, ONLF and the CUD in the diaspora have announced an alliance. The ONLF is carrying out an armed insurrection in the Somali region. -------------- --- ADDIS ABAB 00001763 003 OF 004 NO KNOWN DIRECT LINKS TO LISTED TERRORIST GROUPS -------------- --- ¶6. (S) Post does not have evidence that the OLF, or individuals affiliated with the OLF, are known or suspected to have had any links to any organization designated by the USG as: i. A specially designated terrorist, specially designated global terrorist, or foreign terrorist organization and included on the Department of TreasuryQs Specially Designated Nationals List ( http://www.treasury.gov/offices/enforcement/o fac/sdn/); or ii. A terrorist organization included on the Department of StateQs Terrorist Exclusion list ( http://www.state.gov/s/ct/rls/fs/2004/32678.h tm). The GoE claims that there are 640 ONLF and OLF fighters supporting the Islamic Courts in Somalia which are attempting to replace the internationally recognized Transitional Federal Government. Among the Islamic Courts are Al-Qaeda linked terrorists and Al-Ittihad al-Islamiya (AIAI) Somali terrorist groups. A UN report dated May 5, 2006 from the Monitoring Group on Somalia (part of the Security Council) reports that the representatives of the OLF and ONLF met together on at least one occasion with Sheik Hassan Dahir Aweys (an AIAI leader). -------------- OLF NOT A THREAT TO US SECURITY OR INTERESTS -------------- ¶7. (S) Post does not have any evidence to suggest the OLFQs activities have posed or may pose a threat to the security of U.S. nationals or the national security of the United States (including our national defense, foreign relations, or economic interests)or to the nationals or national security of any of our allies. Post does not have any evidence that suggests the OLF to be otherwise hostile to the United States or any of our allies. In fact, OLF officials and members in both Washington D.C. and Addis Ababa have repeatedly sought contact with USG officials. -------------- A BRIEF HISTORY OF THE OLF -------------- ¶8. (C) The OLF began as a student movement in 1973 with the purpose of armed opposition to Derg rule in Ethiopia at the time. The OLFQs declared mission is self-determination for the Oromo people, which make up approximately 40 percent of the population of Ethiopia and are the largest ethnic group in the country. When the EPRDF overthrew the Derg regime in 1991, the OLF registered as a political party, and was granted 12 out of 80 seats in the transitional parliament and given 4 minister-level positions in the transitional government. Primary control of the government was in the hands of the Tigray Peoples Liberation Front (TPLF),the core of the current EPRDF government. The OLFQs participation in national government was short-lived, however, as it rejected the TPLFQs demands that the OLF disband its army and allow the formation of a national army of Ethiopia. This led the OLF to leave parliament and subsequently to call for armed uprising and become an outlawed party in Ethiopia. In late 2005, the EPRDF leadership made overtures to the OLF to engage in dialogue. Though initially the government stated that these talks would occur without preconditions, they subsequently insisted the OLF disarm before the discussions went any further. The OLF balked at these demands and has continued its struggle as an underground, youth-dominated, armed movement fighting against what it views as a minority-controlled government. In a November 2005 press release, the OLF called for the Oromo to continue to "wage their defiant and determined struggle" against the government using "different tactics." In this statement they simultaneously call for a conference of all Ethiopian parties (including the ruling EPRDF) in order to "save the country from destruction." -------------- CONTINUING POPULAR SUPPORT -------------- ADDIS ABAB 00001763 004 OF 004 ¶9. (S) Though the party was outlawed in 1992, support for the OLF has remained strong. Many residents of the Oromia region of Southern Ethiopia support the organization to some degree. Even legal Oromo parties currently participating in parliament (ONC, OFDM) have admitted to Poloffs in meetings that there are significant portions of their constituencies that may have voted for their parties, but actually would vote for the OLF if it were a legal party. Clandestine sources have reported that it is common practice for small groups of OLF representatives to visit towns in Oromia on market day to disseminate OLF propaganda. -------------- THE ERITREAN CONNECTION -------------- ¶10. (S) The OLFQs struggle however has been tainted in the eyes of many by its embrace of the Qenemy of my enemy is my friend" approach. In addition to cooperation with the outlawed ONLF (mentioned above),all-sources reporting indicates that the OLF receives training, funding and arms from the Government of Eritrea. There have been numerous reports of groups of OLF activists moving back and forth between Asmara and OLF bases in Northern Kenya, Eastern Sudan, or Western Somalia. This relationship is known to the Government of Ethiopia. Another group from which the OLF derives support is the Oromo diaspora in Europe and the United States. Much of the funding for OLF activities is believed to come from sympathizers abroad. Most recently, the OLF participated in the formation of the Alliance for Freedom and Democracy (AFD),a coalition of political and armed groups allying themselves against the rule of the EPRDF. Members of the AFD include the OLF, the ONLF, the Coalition for Unity and Democracy (CUD),the Ethiopian Peoples Patriotic Front (EPPF),the Sidama Liberation Front (SLF),and the United Ethiopian Democratic Forces (UEDF). While this group does not explicitly support violent overthrow of the GoE, the OLF, the ONLF, and the Amhara-based EPPF have not renounced the use of violence. ONLF and EPPF military operations against the Ethiopian armed forces are ongoing. HUDDLESTON