ETHIOPIA: ANALYSIS OF OLF CONNECTIONS TO TERRORISM

S E C R E T SECTION 01 OF 04 ADDIS ABABA 001763

SIPDIS

SIPDIS

DEPARTMENT FOR AF/E DESK OFFICER MIKE GONZALES AND AF
LONDON, PARIS, ROME FOR AFRICA WATCHER, PRM/A:TRUSCH,
A/CT:TKUSHNER

E.O. 12958: DECL: 06/20/2026
TAGS: PTER PREL PGOV ET ER
SUBJECT: ETHIOPIA: ANALYSIS OF OLF CONNECTIONS TO TERRORISM

REF: SECSTATE 96301

Classified By: Charge Vicki Huddleston for reasons 1.4 (b)
and (d).



1. (S) SUMMARY: In response to reftel request for intel
analysis on the Oromo Liberation Front (OLF),Post has
gathered information from local sources, including
clandestine reports, to respond to the questions posed. The
information collected suggests that the OLF has, and
continues to, support armed resistance to the Government of
Ethiopia (GoE) and continues to train and prepare for
military engagements. There is less evidence to suggest that
civilian populations are indiscriminately targeted in OLF
armed activity. However, the GoE and some clandestine
reports suggest that the OLF has likely been involved in
attacks that have harmed civilians. The OLF continues to
actively operate in Ethiopia with significant contributions
of resources and support from among the Oromo population in
Ethiopia, the Oromo diaspora in the US, as well as the
Government of Eritrea. END SUMMARY

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LIMITED TARGETING OF CIVILIAN POPULATION
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2. (S) In response to questions posed in paragraph 3 of
reftel:

i. Post does not have any evidence to suggest the OLF has
been involved in hijacking of civilian conveyances (e.g.,
bus, train, aircraft). However, in 2003 there were numerous
reports of bombs placed on trains, on railway tracks and in a
railway station on the route from Addis Ababa to Djibouti.
The only reported loss of life from these attacks occurred on
September 23, 2003, when a bomb was placed on a passenger
train that was carrying Ethiopian military personnel.
Reports of precise numbers vary, but at least 2 people were
killed in this attack. The GoE, as well as the GoD, have
suspected the OLF in this and other bombings. While the OLF
denies this, clandestine reports indicate the OLF was likely
involved.

ii. Post does not have any evidence to suggest the OLF has
been involved in kidnapping of civilians for any purpose.
However, there have been clandestine reports that the OLF
routinely targets government officials, their offices, and
private property belonging to the Oromo Peoples Democratic
Organization (OPDO),one of the constituent members of the
ruling Ethiopian Peoples Revolutionary Democratic Front
(EPRDF) coalition. These reports indicate however, that
non-government related civilians are not deliberately
targeted.

iii. Although Post does not have any independent verification
that the OLF has participated in other violent attacks (such
as those using explosives, firearms, or other weapons or
dangerous devices) against civilians or civilian property,
the GoE maintains that the OLF, in cooperation with other
indigenous insurgent groups, has carried out attacks
targeting civilians. Additionally, clandestine reporting has
suggested that the OLF likely had some involvement in a
series of bombings of six restaurants and hotels in Ethiopia
from 1996 to 2002. Casualties from these bombings were
minimal, although precise numbers are not available.

iv. Post does not have any evidence to suggest the OLF has
been involved in efforts to develop, acquire, traffic in, or
use weapons of mass destruction (including without limitation
any chemical or biological agent, or nuclear or radiological
weapon or device) for any purpose.

v. Although post does not have any independent verification
that the OLF has threatened to, attempted to, or conspired to
engage in any of the above-mentioned activities, the GoE
maintains that the OLF, in cooperation with other indigenous
insurgent groups, has carried out attacks targeting
civilians. Clandestine reports have confirmed that in the
recent past, the OLF has likely engaged in nuisance bombings
involving grenades and other small explosives. It is
reported that these explosions have occurred in relatively
isolated areas late at night and appear to be designed to

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minimize casualties. Further, this style of explosion is
relatively common in Ethiopia and it is difficult to assign
responsibility to specific incidents. Recent 2006 bombings in
Addis Ababa resulted in loss of civilian lives and numerous
injuries. Although evidence to indicate who was responsible
is unavailable, these bombings which included the bus station
and the office of Ethiopian Airways, resembled the nuisance
bombings mentioned above.


3. (S) There is a very limited amount of verifiable
information available regarding the nature and targeting of
OLF violent activity. The OLF openly states that one of the
tactics they employ to achieve their goal of self
determination for the Oromo people is armed struggle against
military targets. However, the OLF also states on its website
that it is opposed to targeting civilians in these armed
activities. Clandestine sources have substantiated this,
indicating that since 09/11/2001, the OLF has become more
restrictive in its targeting in order to avoid being labeled
a terrorist organization. This conflicts with the GoE view
that the OLF indiscriminately targets civilians, rather than
military targets. The GoE has long accused the OLF of a
variety of violent activities involving civilians. GoE
investigations into such incidents have generally failed to
yield conclusive public findings or criminal charges,
however. The OLF has not claimed responsibility for, and has
in fact denied involvement in such incidents. The OLF, in
response, has suggested that the GoE has in fact been
responsible for these reported attacks, which are designed to
frame the OLF. Post has not been able to verify or refute
any of the GoEQs claims that the OLF targets civilians.


4. (S) An example of the conflicting information received on
OLF involvement in civilian attacks was the recent spate of
bombings in Addis Ababa and nearby cities in Oromia, which
reportedly killed 4 civilians and injured many others. The
GoE was quick to assign blame to the OLF, Eritrea and the CUD
for placing these bombs throughout the city without regard
for civilian life. The OLF denied involvement and blamed the
GoE itself for the bombings, suggesting that the GoE was
seeking to smear groups such as the OLF. In meetings with
Pol/Econ section officers, Oromo National Congress (ONC)
party leaders who are sympathetic to the Oromo political
cause said that there are individuals or groups formerly of
the OLF that do not support the OLFQs recent softening of
armed resistance, and have been acting unilaterally. These
individuals or groups may still be acting on behalf of the
OLF. The GoEQs allegations against the OLF in the case of
the recent bombings have been further weakened by clandestine
source reports stating that elements of the National
Intelligence and Security Service have not found evidence to
support accusations against the OLF.

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OLF UNABASHED IN ATTACKS ON ETHIOPIAN MILITARY
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5. (S) There is little doubt that the OLF has planned,
participated in, and supported activities of the nature
described in paragraph 3 of reftel against military targets.
However, the GoE has denied the OLF has been successful in
striking military targets, claiming that the OLF is incapable
of forming a serious threat to the Ethiopian military
forces. That said, according to clandestine reporting, the
Ethiopian National Defense Forces (ENDF) has grown concerned
by OLF successes in recruiting new supporters from among the
security services and the ENDF itself. While these
penetrations likely do not pose a threat to the integrity of
the ENDF, Post assesses that the GoE has increasingly lost
confidence in its ethnic Oromo military and security service
members. In addition to officially declaring Qarmed
resistanceQ against the Ethiopian military, it is also widely
known and confirmed by clandestine sources the OLF has
cooperated with the Ogaden National Liberation Front (ONLF),
an armed group based in the Ogaden region of Ethiopia.
Clandestine reports indicate that the OLF and ONLF have
coordinated activities and provided limited mutual support to
one another, and have occasionally jointly engaged the
Ethiopian military in the Ogaden region. The OLF, ONLF and
the CUD in the diaspora have announced an alliance. The ONLF
is carrying out an armed insurrection in the Somali region.

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NO KNOWN DIRECT LINKS TO LISTED TERRORIST GROUPS
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6. (S) Post does not have evidence that the OLF, or
individuals affiliated with the OLF, are known or suspected
to have had any links to any organization designated by the
USG as:

i. A specially designated terrorist, specially designated
global terrorist, or foreign terrorist organization and
included on the Department of TreasuryQs Specially Designated
Nationals List (
http://www.treasury.gov/offices/enforcement/o fac/sdn/); or
ii. A terrorist organization included on the Department of
StateQs Terrorist Exclusion list (
http://www.state.gov/s/ct/rls/fs/2004/32678.h tm).

The GoE claims that there are 640 ONLF and OLF fighters
supporting the Islamic Courts in Somalia which are attempting
to replace the internationally recognized Transitional
Federal Government. Among the Islamic Courts are Al-Qaeda
linked terrorists and Al-Ittihad al-Islamiya (AIAI) Somali
terrorist groups. A UN report dated May 5, 2006 from the
Monitoring Group on Somalia (part of the Security Council)
reports that the representatives of the OLF and ONLF met
together on at least one occasion with Sheik Hassan Dahir
Aweys (an AIAI leader).

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OLF NOT A THREAT TO US SECURITY OR INTERESTS
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7. (S) Post does not have any evidence to suggest the OLFQs
activities have posed or may pose a threat to the security of
U.S. nationals or the national security of the United States
(including our national defense, foreign relations, or
economic interests)or to the nationals or national security
of any of our allies. Post does not have any evidence that
suggests the OLF to be otherwise hostile to the United States
or any of our allies. In fact, OLF officials and members in
both Washington D.C. and Addis Ababa have repeatedly sought
contact with USG officials.

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A BRIEF HISTORY OF THE OLF
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8. (C) The OLF began as a student movement in 1973 with the
purpose of armed opposition to Derg rule in Ethiopia at the
time. The OLFQs declared mission is self-determination for
the Oromo people, which make up approximately 40 percent of
the population of Ethiopia and are the largest ethnic group
in the country. When the EPRDF overthrew the Derg regime in
1991, the OLF registered as a political party, and was
granted 12 out of 80 seats in the transitional parliament and
given 4 minister-level positions in the transitional
government. Primary control of the government was in the
hands of the Tigray Peoples Liberation Front (TPLF),the core
of the current EPRDF government. The OLFQs participation in
national government was short-lived, however, as it rejected
the TPLFQs demands that the OLF disband its army and allow
the formation of a national army of Ethiopia. This led the
OLF to leave parliament and subsequently to call for armed
uprising and become an outlawed party in Ethiopia. In late
2005, the EPRDF leadership made overtures to the OLF to
engage in dialogue. Though initially the government stated
that these talks would occur without preconditions, they
subsequently insisted the OLF disarm before the discussions
went any further. The OLF balked at these demands and has
continued its struggle as an underground, youth-dominated,
armed movement fighting against what it views as a
minority-controlled government. In a November 2005 press
release, the OLF called for the Oromo to continue to "wage
their defiant and determined struggle" against the government
using "different tactics." In this statement they
simultaneously call for a conference of all Ethiopian parties
(including the ruling EPRDF) in order to "save the country
from destruction."

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CONTINUING POPULAR SUPPORT
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9. (S) Though the party was outlawed in 1992, support for the
OLF has remained strong. Many residents of the Oromia region
of Southern Ethiopia support the organization to some
degree. Even legal Oromo parties currently participating in
parliament (ONC, OFDM) have admitted to Poloffs in meetings
that there are significant portions of their constituencies
that may have voted for their parties, but actually would
vote for the OLF if it were a legal party. Clandestine
sources have reported that it is common practice for small
groups of OLF representatives to visit towns in Oromia on
market day to disseminate OLF propaganda.

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THE ERITREAN CONNECTION
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10. (S) The OLFQs struggle however has been tainted in the
eyes of many by its embrace of the Qenemy of my enemy is my
friend" approach. In addition to cooperation with the
outlawed ONLF (mentioned above),all-sources reporting
indicates that the OLF receives training, funding and arms
from the Government of Eritrea. There have been numerous
reports of groups of OLF activists moving back and forth
between Asmara and OLF bases in Northern Kenya, Eastern
Sudan, or Western Somalia. This relationship is known to the
Government of Ethiopia. Another group from which the OLF
derives support is the Oromo diaspora in Europe and the
United States. Much of the funding for OLF activities is
believed to come from sympathizers abroad. Most recently,
the OLF participated in the formation of the Alliance for
Freedom and Democracy (AFD),a coalition of political and
armed groups allying themselves against the rule of the
EPRDF. Members of the AFD include the OLF, the ONLF, the
Coalition for Unity and Democracy (CUD),the Ethiopian
Peoples Patriotic Front (EPPF),the Sidama Liberation Front
(SLF),and the United Ethiopian Democratic Forces (UEDF).
While this group does not explicitly support violent
overthrow of the GoE, the OLF, the ONLF, and the Amhara-based
EPPF have not renounced the use of violence. ONLF and EPPF
military operations against the Ethiopian armed forces are
ongoing.
HUDDLESTON