ETHIOPIA: ETHIOPIAN MILITARY TO RESPOND IF

C O N F I D E N T I A L ADDIS ABABA 001648 SIPDIS SIPDIS DEPARTMENT FOR AF DAS YAMAMOTO AND AF/E USUN FOR A/S DR. FRAZER LONDON, PARIS, ROME FOR AFRICA WATCHER E.O. 12958: DECL: 06/15/2016 TAGS: PREL PTER MOPS ET SO SUBJECT: ETHIOPIA: ETHIOPIAN MILITARY TO RESPOND IF ISLAMIC COURTS TAKE BAIDOA OR NEAR BORDER REF: A. IIR 6 830 0169 06 ¶B. ADDIS ABABA 1646 Classified By: CHARGE VICKI HUDDLESTON FOR REASONS 1.4 (B,D) ¶1. (C) Summary. On 15 June, DATT met with MG Yohannes Gebremeskel, Head, Intelligence Main Department of the Ethiopian National Defense Force (ENDF). Yohannes said the Islamic Courts are likely using "freelance" militias to expand their control beyond Mogadishu. He said they had taken Jowhar. He said the Transitional Federal Government Parliament in Baidoa remains divided on what should be done. Eritrea continues to support to the Islamic Courts and Ethiopian rebel groups. End Summary. ¶2. (SBU) Note: This cable is derived from a DATT IIR (reftel A). ¶3. (C) Yohannes said he is developing various courses of action as a precaution to what the Islamic Courts could do as well as trying to determine weaknesses. He said the Islamic Courts have clear objectives, a slogan "defending holy Somalia", and are organized. He said it is easy for the Islamic Courts to control Mogadishu, but as they expand their area they could have difficulty maintaining effective control. They will require more resources and forces to expand their area of control. He said the Islamic Courts currently have moved 90 to 100 kilometers from Mogadishu. Yohannes stated that if the Islamic Courts reach and take Baidoa and/or cross the border Ethiopia would respond militarily and go deep. ¶4. (C) Yohannes criticized the warlord alliance stating it was not real alliance and that the various clans only joined together for as short time for money. He added these alliances tend to fragment easily. ¶5. (C) Yohannes stated Eritrea continues to send arms and funding to Somalia for the Islamic Courts and Ogaden National Liberation Front (ONLF) and al Ittihad al Islamiya (AIA) in order to destabilize Ethiopia. ¶6. (C) At the request of the Charge, DATT called LTG Samora Yonus, Chief of General Staff ENDF to request an appointment immediately to discuss Ethiopian military intentions. Samora refused to meet DATT, but said Ethiopia continues to monitor the situation. DATT asked if Ethiopia had begun moving troops toward Somalia. Samora asked why and said, "does the U.S. want Ethiopia to move into Somalia." DATT responded, "no, we don,t want to be surprised by such a move." Samora repeated his statement about monitoring the situation. He said the Charge should talk to the Prime Minister (reftel B) if she wants more details. ¶7. (C) DATT called MG Bacha Debele, Eastern Region Commander whose forces would go into Somalia if Ethiopia decided to go. Bacha currently is at his headquarters in Harar. DATT asked if his forces had begun moving into or toward Somalia. He said they had not, but that he had begun planning for such an operation and that it was likely they could go soon. He said this action would be in self defense. He did not give a timeframe. He said it would take a little time to make the plans and assemble the forces for such an operation. He added Ethiopia had experience in such operations having conducted them in the past. He said Baidoa remains a key town and Ethiopia could not let the Islamic Courts take control of it. HUDDLESTON