C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 04 ADDIS ABABA 001539

SIPDIS

SIPDIS

DEPARTMENT FOR AF DAS YAMAMOTO AND AF/E
LONDON, PARIS, ROME FOR AFRICA WATCHER

E.O. 12958: DECL: 06/01/2016
TAGS: PHUM PREL PGOV ET
SUBJECT: ETHIOPIA: EVIDENCE WEAK SO FAR IN OPPOSITION TRIAL

REF: A. ADDIS ABABA 01402


B. ADDIS ABABA 04202

Classified By: Charge Vicki Huddleston for reasons 1.4 (b) and (d).


1. (C) SUMMARY: In their case against detained opposition
CUD leaders, independent journalists, and civil society
representatives, the prosecution in late May presented video
footage of internal CUD meetings in which the party
leadership and some constituents debate whether or not MPs
should take their seats in the Parliament. Prosecutors did a
poor job of explaining how the videos proved a conspiracy to
overthrow the government. In fact, video evidence depicted a
lively, principled debate within the CUD, centered on whether
to pursue power-sharing arrangements and what democratic
reforms the party should press. The party eventually chose
to drop demands for a unity government, but to boycott
Parliament and "take peaceful measures" unless eight
pre-conditions were met by the GOE. COMMENT: Most CUD
Supreme Council members did not appear to have a realistic
picture of the eventual consequences of pursuing a strategy
of civil disobedience. The prosecution's case for treason
charges is focused to date on CUD efforts to de-legitimize
the democratic process and institutions in the eyes of the
public. Considerable evidence remains to be presented,
however, some of which might draw more direct connections to
plotting violence. It is not yet clear whether the trial
will recess for three months beginning in July, as is normal
practice. Though prosecutors and judges are trying to speed
up the trial, one judge told an observer he expects
proceedings to continue until the end of the year. END
SUMMARY.

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COHESIVE DEFENDANTS, INTERNATIONAL OBSERVERS
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2. (SBU) Though they have now spent nearly six months in
prison, the defendants continue to come to court reasonably
well dressed, appear healthy, and are usually in good
spirits. As they enter the courtroom at the beginning of
each session, they typically greet each other war

mly. They
are contained in their roped-off section of the courtroom
adjacent to the large area reserved for the public, separated
by only five feet and a lone policeman. While verbal
interaction with the public is not permitted, they share
non-verbal greetings with friends and loved ones attending
the trial.


3. (U) International observers have designated seats at a
special table in the front of the courtroom, just a few yards
from the prosecutors and translators' booth. Emboffs have
attended most sessions of the trial, but also participate in
a rotational arrangement among Western embassies and share
written summaries of the proceedings. EU-contracted observer
Michael Ellman attends all sessions, along with a UN observer
seconded from the UN Mission to Ethiopia and Eritrea (UNMEE).
The simultaneous translation provided by the court has been
reasonably good. Both judges and some defendants frequently
monitor the translation through headphones, presumably to
evaluate how key evidence sounds to foreign observers.

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DOMESTIC PRESS COVERAGE LIGHT
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4. (SBU) There appear to be only a few representatives of the
Ethiopian press attending the trial. Local media provide
only brief accounts of the evidence presented on a daily
basis; Ethiopian law restricts journalists from writing in
detail or giving opinions on an ongoing court case. While
both state and private feature some regular coverage of the
trial, which remains of enormous interest to the Ethiopian
public, neither has typically given accounts of the trial
front page or top-of-the-news billing.

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MINIMALIST PROSECUTION UNCONVINCING
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5. (SBU) As per reftel A, the prosecutors begin each court
session by announcing which videos will be played, the
defendants who appear in the videos and what charges are
related to the evidence. They typically direct the judges'

ADDIS ABAB 00001539 002 OF 004


attention to particular segments of the videos according to
minute marks on the footage, but play the tapes without
interruption. There are no pauses for emphasis, nor detailed
explanations from prosecutors of the criminal implications of
key statements or decisions, as there might be in a U.S.
trial. The result is a rather unfocused presentation. In
sessions towards the end of May, judges appeared to push
prosecutors to narrow the list of video evidence to be
presented and discard those pieces determined to be less
relevant to the specific charges.

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CUD SUPREME COUNCIL DEBATES BOYCOTT
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6. (U) Video evidence presented May 17-19 featured CUD
Supreme Council meetings from early October that the
prosecution claimed were relevant to charges 1, 3 and 7
(reftel B), including conspiring to overthrow the government.
In an initial Council meeting, members first agreed nearly
unanimously to break off September talks with the GOE in the
wake of GOE refusal to accept several new CUD demands.
Council members agreed then agreed, after some debate, that
the vote on whether or not to join Parliament should require
a two-thirds majority in favor of whatever approach was
chosen, given the importance of the decision and the need for
cohesion within the Council.


7. (U) At their next meeting, the CUD Supreme Council meeting
determined that the party would not enter Parliament unless
eight pre-conditions were fulfilled. The eight-point list of
pre-conditions was as follows:

A restructured, impartial and professional National
Election Board (NEB)
Fair utilization of public media and establishment of
private electronic media
An independent judiciary
An independent commission to investigate June violence
Revision of the Parliamentary rules of procedure and
changes to Addis by-laws
Release of CUD prisoners and an end to harassment
De-politicized security forces
An independent task force to ensure implementation of
all of the above

Discussed and discarded were two other pre-conditions:

An independent review of 299 disputed Parliamentary
constituencies
A national unity government


8. (SBU) The Council,s discussion, chaired by Bertukan and
Muleneh, was free-flowing, intense and earnest. Although
there were some speakers who seemed to favor entering
Parliament, including Lidetu and Moshe of UEDP-Medhin, no one
made an explicit case for that option. In the end, the vote
was unanimous in favor of participating only if the
pre-conditions were met. The overall sense the tape creates
is of an organization that is unified on this momentous
decision, (Comment: though post believes that significant
differences of opinion did exist. End Comment.) The most
contentious issues, discussed at length, were whether to
continue contesting 299 seats and whether to insist on a
national unity government. Ultimately CUD leaders decided
that these two issues implied an immediate bid for power.
What the CUD should focus on instead, they said, was fixing
institutions and winning the next set of elections.


9. (C) The discussion, which was quite disorganized,
suggested that the CUD Supreme Council members took a
principled position on institutional shortcomings, rather
than designing a strategy to overthrow the GOE. Only after
the pre-conditions were established did members ask how long
the CUD would give the EPRDF to agree to its demands, and
what the party would do if the EPRDF said no. The group
quickly agreed to leave the matter to the Executive Committee
of the Party ) led by Hailu. Hailu told the Council that if
the GOE did not agree to the pre-conditions, then &we will
take our peaceful measures.8 The prosecutor, in presenting
the video, had emphasized that the CUD,s establishment of
pre-conditions for participation in Parliament called into
question the independence of Ethiopian institutions including
the NEB, the judiciary and the security forces. The

ADDIS ABAB 00001539 003 OF 004


implications was that this act was tantamount to undermining
the Constitution.

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CALL FOR CIVIL DISOBEDIENCE EMPHASIZES PEACE
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10. (U) On May 24, the prosecution decided to forego showing
three of four scheduled videos of press conferences dating
from mid-October 2005. The remaining video that was shown
featured a press conference on about October 10 led by
defendants Gizachew Shiferaw, Muluneh Eyoel, Yacob
HaileMariam, Birtukan Mideksa and Sileshi Andarge. The press
conference had been called to discuss the CUD's call for a
three-day, stay-at-home strike. Muluneh and Birtukan did
most of the speaking during the 25-minute press conference.
Muluneh said the Ethiopian people were commitment to
democracy and did not want to live in fear of the security
forces. CUD leaders also mentioned several times that party
leaders "do not see EPRDF as an enemy;" want to "engage EPRDF
in peaceful dialogue;" and encourage the "peaceful struggle
of Ethiopians." In response to a question about the risks
that civil servants could lose their jobs if they strike, CUD
leaders claimed that "Ethiopians are prepared to die for the
democratic cause" and that "their daily injera is a small
price to pay." They noted that the international community
had urged the CUD to take its seats in Parliament, but
implied that the international community was ignorant about
Ethiopian people if they think that taking their seats would
make a difference in the "peaceful struggle." "Sitting in
parliament is an easy job," they added, and would be
"irrelevant because it would not effect the path that the
Ethiopian people have chosen."

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CUD Consults with its Base
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11. (U) The video shown on May 25 depicted a consultation
with CUD constituents in Addis Ababa Woreda (district) 23,
apparently from around July 2005. Defendants Hailu Shawel,
Berhanu Nega and lower level CUD party members participated.
The topic was again whether the CUD should take seats in the
parliament. The prosecution stated the video supported
charges 1 and 2. Hailu began by saying that those present at
the meeting had voted for the CUD and "now was the time to
consult because certain decisions have to be taken and the
leadership wants their advice." Berhanu told the crowd that
"EPRDF imprisons, kills, leads us to civil war and the abyss
of hell for the sake of power," while "the CUD considers the
national interest peace and unity foremost, and not power."
He further outlined three principles for the CUD:

- political struggle has to be peaceful
- the aim of the struggle is peace, unity and prosperity for
the nation
- peace and democracy go together


12. (U) In the ensuing discussion, the general sentiment
among constituents was for a boycott of Parliament. Ten
speakers were in favor of a boycott, six were against and
five undecided. Only one speaker felt peaceful means were
exhausted and the struggle should continue with other means.
He was immediately contradicted by Hailu, who argued that the
CUD had not yet even begun the peaceful struggle. He went on
to say that if the CUD boycotted Parliament, it would not be
illegal, but the EPRDF would try to portray it as illegal.
He told the group the CUD leadership would come up with a
tactic of peaceful struggle that would bring Ethiopia
&forward towards peace and democracy.8


13. (U) The video concluded with Hailu outlining three
possibilities of pressure on the government: 1) guns; 2)
foreign governments; and 3) the people. He indicated that
people are the most significant, and that peace and freedom
go together. The &EPRDF wants peace with guns - but that is
not freedom. The people will win, freedom will win and
democracy will prevail.8

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RAIN DELAY IN TRIAL?
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14. (SBU) Ethiopian courts typically take recess during the

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rainy season (July-September) and resume in October. Post
has heard different accounts as to whether the highly-charged
CUD trial will take a three-month break, or will make special
arrangements to continue. Senior EPRDF operative Bereket
Simon told the Charge and Pol/Econ Counselor May 30 that
special arrangements could be made to pay judges and
prosecutors "overtime" to keep them working during the rainy
season, but did not appear certain whether or not this would
happen. Meanwhile, the presiding judge told EU observer
Michael Ellman (protect) that he expected the case to take
"the rest of the year."

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COMMENT: IS IMPUGNING DEMOCRATIC INSTITUTIONS TREASON?
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15. (C) Among those US Embassy Poloffs and other Western
diplomats that have attended the trial to date, the general
conclusion has been that the video tapes presented by the
prosecution in late May actually weakened, rather than
strengthened, the GOE,s treason case. The tapes underscored
that at least at these pivotal, closed-door meetings, there
was no discussion of violence. In fact, just the contrary.
Furthermore, there is no evidence that the CUD Supreme
Council as a whole developed a strategy to force the ERPDF
out of power at all, much less through a violent conspiracy.
The Council did not appear to have a very realistic sense of
what was likely to follow its formulation of pre-conditions
for participation in Parliament, appearing to believe that
more negotiations might occur. From the standpoint of
international observers, the GOE will now have to demonstrate
that CUD detainees subsequently deviated from their stated
intention to pursue "peaceful measures" to advance their
agenda. The GOE still has much evidence left to present that
might do just that. It seems, however, that the GOE
considers the boycott of Parliament and establishment of
pre-conditions that impugn the integrity of Ethiopian
institutions as criminal acts in and of themselves.
HUDDLESTON