ETHIOPIA: CUDP REESTABLISHED, BUT DIASPORA BRIBES

C O N F I D E N T I A L ADDIS ABABA 001160 SIPDIS SIPDIS AF FOR DAS YAMAMOTO E.O. 12958: DECL: 04/26/2016 TAGS: PGOV PREL PHUM ET SUBJECT: ETHIOPIA: CUDP REESTABLISHED, BUT DIASPORA BRIBES DISRUPT ADDIS CITY GOVERNMENT EFFORT Classified By: Charge Janet Wilgus for reasons 1.4 (b) and (d). ¶1. (C) SUMMARY: Moderate elected officials from the CUDP have finally succeeded in achieving renewed legal recognition of Ethiopia's largest opposition organization. The provisional re-registration of the party April 24 has drawn fire from hard-line members of the Ethiopian Diaspora, however, as well as from jailed leaders of the ex-CUD. These hard-liners have offered bribes to -- and threatened -- Addis City Council members to convince them not to take office. The withdrawal of eight council members April 24 may have doomed Ayele Chamiso's effort to take over the natian's capital. Officials who re-founded the CUDP, led by CUD Parliamentary leader Temesgen Zewdie and Addis City Council member Ayele Chamiso, have called for the release of the detained leaders; they seek to advance the same policy platform the previous CUD presented for the May 2005 elections. Nevertheless, hard-line opponents insist that neither democratic institutions nor the party should move forward until jailed leaders are released. In a tense meeting with the Charge in Kaliti prison April 17, imprisoned CUD leader Berhanu Nega charged that Embassy Addis' support for the new CUDP amounted to allowing PM Meles to "choose his opposition." Berhanu also claimed that most Ethiopians continued to support the CUD leadership in jail. Post maintains that opposition participation in the federal Parliament and other elected offices is essential to Ethiopia's long-term democratic development, and that CUD leaders need a party in order to operate effectively. EU Troika ambassadors and other Western diplomats share our view, as evidence in the April 24 statement of the Ambassadors' Donors Group (ADG). Our hope is that over the next several months, the CUD's moderate elected leaders will be able to produce real achievements and convince their constituencies that participation in democratic institutions is worthwhile. Eventual release and reintegration of detained CUD leaders in the political process will also be necessary. END SUMMARY. -------------- -------------- Largest Opposition Party Re-Legalized, But Still Divided -------------- -------------- ¶2. (SBU) On April 24, National Electoral Board (NEB) officials issued a temporary party registration to the Coalition for Unity and Democracy Party (CUDP) to an organizing committee composed of Members of Parliament and Addis Ababa City Council members-elect who were elected under the CUD banner in May 2005 elections. CUD elected officials have operated without a legally-recognized party since the NEB's rejection of CUDP merger documents in September 2005. The coalition's constituent parties had also come under legal attack in connection with treason charges filed against party leaders for following November 2005 riots. After the NEB rejected another attempt to merge those constituent parties in March of this year, Addis City Council members and MPs from the CUD chose to begin the party registration from scratch, collecting over 2,000 signature from Addis Ababa and four other regions around Ethiopia. They accomplished this process without the benefit of party offices around the country, which remain closed, or the kind of financial resources the CUD had received from the Diaspora and local businesses prior to the November unrest. ¶3. (C) The Ethiopian Diaspora did not bankroll the renewed party registration effort because most Diaspora leaders, along with CUD leaders in prison, strongly oppose it. Hard-line CUD leaders in Washington and in jail issued strong warnings to their former colleagues not to re-establish the party from scratch because of strong differences over tactics -- mainly whether to boycott elective office -- as well as a desire to maintain direct leadership over the movement they started. Although CUD Parliamentary leaders and city council members-elect continue to recognize Hailu Shawel, Berhanu Nega and other detainees as their party leaders and have called for their release from prison, they have in practice defied those leaders' instructions to boycott Parliament and the City Council. The new CUDP leaders have argued that the best way to both obtain their jailed colleagues' eventual release and to achieve democratic change is to participate as a loyal opposition within key institutions. -------------- Jailed Leader Chastises Charge -------------- ¶4. (C) In a tense meeting with the Charge and French Ambassador Gompertz (ADG Chair) in Kaliti prison April 17, imprisoned CUD leader Berhanu Nega charged that Embassy Addis' support for the new CUDP amounted to allowing PM Meles to "choose his opposition." Berhanu also claimed that most Ethiopians continued to support the CUD leadership in jail. He claimed that his primary concern was not to secure the release of CUD leaders like himself, but rather to prevent the manipulation of the democratic process by the ruling EPRDF. Berhanu insisted that CUD MPs and council members -- all of whom were chosen in early 2005 by the now imprisoned party leadership -- were now doing the bidding of the government. The former mayor-elect of Addis claimed that if PM Meles wanted to resolve current tensions in Ethiopia and return to the path of democracy, he would negotiate with those members of the original CUD central committee who remained at liberty. He noted sarcastically that the PM would certainly not deign to dialogue with "criminals" such as himself. -------------- Why Engagement Through New CUDP Makes Sense -------------- ¶5. (C) Charge Huddleston explained that USG efforts were aimed at strengthening Ethiopian democratic institutions for the long run. The re-registration of the CUDP would facilitate a high-level dialogue with PM Meles as well as better representation in Parliamentary committees and debate. It would also facilitate the take-over of Addis Ababa's City Government by the CUDP. The Charge argued that all of these developments, which would promote stability and long-term democratic development, would also improve the chances of the CUD leaders being released, probably after a trial. She and Gompertz also underscored that MPs and City Council members continued to refer to detainees as "their leaders" and called for their release. Under those circumstances, why should jailed leaders and the Diaspora attack them? Berhanu remained adamant, however, that the new CUDP organizing committee no longer represented him or the people that elected them. He also insisted that the EPRDF regime had done nothing to promote genuine democracy, and never would. -------------- -------------- Diaspora Goes Gang-Land to Thwart City Council Bid -------------- -------------- ¶6. (SBU) On the same day that the NEB issued the CUDP its temporary registration (April 24),it also reported that eight of the 68 city council members who had signed up to take office had written to the NEB to withdraw their names. The withdrawal left the city council organizing committee, led by Ayele Chamiso, well short of the 69-70 council members needed for quorum. PM Meles had granted the organizing committee several extensions in the deadline to register enough council members, but the loss of eight signatures on April 24 dealt a serious blow to the effort. Makonnen Wondimu, Acting NEB Registrar of Parties, told Pol/Econ Couns April 25 that the NEB had required that the eight signatories clarify several times in writing their desire to disassociate themselves from Ayele's group, which they had done, before accepting the withdrawal. Makonnen noted that these individuals would in any case have prevented the achievement of quorum on future votes necessary to elect a mayor and administer the capital. He indicated that the NEB would transmit a report to Parliament within a day or two concerning whether quorum had been achieved, and would accept new signatures until that time. ¶7. (SBU) Ayele Chamiso charges the eight city council members who had recently withdrawn their support from him had been successfully bribed by the Diaspora supporters of jailed CUD leaders. Ayele told the DCM and emboffs April 25 that fellow committee member Ali Mohammed had been approached by individuals representing CUD North America official Berhane Mewa. The Diaspora CUD organization had offered Ali Mohammed 200,000 birr (about USD$22,000) to cease his work with the Ayele's committee. Ali had refused. Ayele added that he himself had previously received offers of a new car and other enticements if he would desist from his effort to take over the capital on behalf of the CUDP. When he rejected the offers, Ayele claims that both he and his family were threatened with unspecified punishments. ¶8. (SBU) Ayele indicated that he and the chair of the CUDP's organizing committee, MP Temesgen Zewdie, planned to write a letter to PM Meles April 26 asking that he transfer the government of Addis Ababa to CUDP electees in spite of their failure to achieve quorum. The two may also seek a meeting with PM Meles to discuss the situation. -------------- -------------- Comment: CUD Internal Divisions Still a Drag on Democracy -------------- -------------- ¶9. (C) The current split is a continuation of the main disagreement that existed within the CUD prior to the party's fateful decision last October to pursue street demonstrations and a boycott rather than taking up its seats in October ¶2005. Post maintains that opposition participation in the federal Parliament and other elected offices is essential to Ethiopia's long-term democratic development, and that CUD leaders need a party in order to operate effectively. EU Troika ambassadors and other Western diplomats share our view, though a few EU member states continue to focus exclusively on the detained leaders. Our hope is that over the next several months, the CUD's moderate elected leaders will be able to produce real achievements and convince their constituencies that participation in democratic institutions is worthwhile. Eventual release and reintegration of detained CUD leaders in the political process will also be necessary, but is not likely to occur until the EPRDF feels that the democratic process and institutions have progressed too far for hard-liners CUD leaders to derail them, and until the trial has run its course. Failure to achieve quorum to take over city government would be a serious setback, though probably not a fatal blow, to this process. WILGUS