AU SUMMIT KHARTOUM SCENESETTER

UNCLAS SECTION 01 OF 04 ADDIS ABABA 000115

SIPDIS

SENSITIVE
SIPDIS

DEPARTMENT FOR AF/FO, AF/RSA, AF/E.
LONDON AND PARIS FOR AFRICA WATCHERS.

E.O. 12958: N/A
TAGS: PREL SU AU
SUBJECT: AU SUMMIT KHARTOUM SCENESETTER

REF: ADDIS ABABA 46

SENSITIVE BUT UNCLASSIFIED. NOT FOR INTERNET DISTRIBUTION.


1. (SBU) Summary: The January 23-24 African Union (AU)
Summit in Khartoum will focus on the AU's efforts to make the
organization more relevant for Africa, while retaining
international credibility. The Summit will spotlight
education, social and cultural issues, though the AU
Commission's modest goal is to prompt member states to adhere
to previous commitments. The AU hopes to achieve a common
African position on HIV/AIDS in advance of the UN Special
Session on AIDS. Important decisions to be taken at the
Summit include the election of a new Assembly Chairman,
justices for the new African Court of Justice and African
Court of Human Rights, of ten new members to the Peace and
Security Council (PSC),and approval of the AU's budget for

2006. Two key topics which are not guaranteed a resolution
at the Summit are the African Committee on Human and People's
Rights' plans to ask AU member states to take action on
Zimbabwe, and Senegal's request for the AU to pronounce on
the case of former Chadian President Habre. The AU
Commission fears that Sudanese President Bashir will be
elected Chairman of the Assembly. Congo-Brazzaville
President Sassou-Nguesso is the only other candidate vying to
replace Obasanjo as Chairman of the AU Assembly. While a
Bashir chairmanship would negatively impact AU ability to
serve as a moral authority to address peace and security
challenges on the continent, AU institutions such as the
Peace and Security Council would continue to function as they
have been. Note: Summit agendas and Executive Council
reports were forwarded to AF/RSA. End summary.

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SEEKING RELEVANCE WHILE IMPROVING CAPACITY
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2. (SBU) The AU Commission is making a conscious effort to
demonstrate to member states and the international community
that it is different, in a positive sense, from its defunct
predecessor organization, the OAU. In the realm of Peace and
Security, the AU sees its mission in Darfur (AMIS) as the
first opportunity to test a policy of "non-indifference" as
opposed to the OAU's "non-interference." Ongoing efforts to
develop five regional brigades under an African Standby Force
(ASF) with proper doctrine; standard operating procedures;
command, control, communications and information systems;
training and evaluation; and logistics support is also
designed to give the AU tools of proactivity in contrast to
ad-hoc peace support operations such as AMIS. The
Commissioner for Social Affairs, Bience Gawanas, points out
that the AU's attention to social issues and problems
directly affecting Africans is another key means of
differentiating the AU from the OAU.


3. (SBU) AU officials highlight the challenge of undertaking
proactive agendas to prove to member states and partners that
the AU is a changed organization, while not yet having the
institutional structures in place to adequately pursue its
ambitious efforts. The AU Commission is spearheading a
process of institutional transformation to improve
administrative, financial and management support functions,
and to conclude an MOU with the regional economic communities
(RECs) on respective roles and responsibilities. While
debate on the MOU with the RECs and rationalization of REC
membership has been postponed to the July 2006 Summit in
Banjul, AU partners are funding an institutional assessment
to assist in making the AU Commission more effective and
capable of receiving flexible funding.

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AU ASSEMBLY CHAIR AND AU CREDIBILITY/LATITUDE OF ACTION
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4. (SBU) The AU Commission remains deeply concerned that
Sudanese President El-Bashir will be selected to succeed
President Obasanjo as Chairman of the AU Assembly (See Ref
A). The AU Commission fears that member states will not be
proactive in protecting AU credibility by ensuring Bashir is
defeated. Congo-Brazzaville President Sassou-Nguesso is also
a declared candidate. Another compromise option would be for
member states to extend Obasanjo's term -- though the Eastern
and Central regions maintain that the Chair should rotate.

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5. (SBU) The AU Commission notes that a Bashir Chairmanship
would in many respects make for a "dead year" for the AU due
to Bashir's lack of moral authority to address conflict
situations on the continent. While a strong and credible
Assembly Chairman is key to pushing forward proactive agendas
and mustering international community support, AU organs such
as the Peace and Security Council should continue to function
as they have been irrespective of the Chairman's identity.
Under the PSC Protocol, PSC members work with the Chairperson
of the Commission (i.e. Konare) to decide on courses of
action to address conflict situations or other threats to
continental peace and security. The Assembly Chairman's
ability to resist Commission actions in follow-up to a PSC
decision (such as Obasanjo's "turning off" Konare's plan to
deploy a special envoy for Togo) remains, but appears to be
based on personal influence. Under the rules of procedure of
the Assembly, the Chairman runs Assembly sessions and,
in-between sessions, "represents the Union in conformity with
Constitutive Act objectives and principles." Lack of
cooperation between the Chairperson of the Commission and
Assembly Chairman, though, could hinder AU ability to
proactively address unconstitutional changes of government
and other sensitive topics. Other agendas such as
institutional transformation and items approved by the
Assembly at Khartoum should continue.

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SPOTLIGHT ON SOCIAL ISSUES
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6. (SBU) The Khartoum Summit intends to spotlight education,
culture, health and other social issues. According to
Gawanas, the AU wants to mobilize member states to reaffirm
and implement previous commitments. The AU also seeks to
foster member state debate on the links between culture and
education and develop strategies for education promotion.
Gawanas said that the AU revised the 1976 cultural charter
and intends to implement a plan of action on cultural
industries in Africa. The AU seeks agreement on a
continental framework for reproductive health, a nutrition
strategy, and a common position on HIV/AIDS ahead of the UN
General Assembly Special Session on AIDS (UNGASS). Gawanas
noted that the common position will link with the Abuja
Summit plan of action on HIV/AIDS, malaria and tuberculosis.
On other health issues, Gawanas said that ministers of animal
husbandry will report on avian influenza. According to the
draft report, the AU proposes to strengthen surveillance of
the disease, sensitize member states, and arrange for
provision of emergency vaccine stock and an emergency fund
for rapid intervention. AU Commission Chairperson Konare
plans to urge member states to follow up on polio eradication
commitments, which will form a priority program for the AU in

2006.

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PEACE AND SECURITY
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7. (SBU) A foreign-ministers level meeting of the PSC in
Khartoum will receive the PSC Chair's (Cameroon) report on
PSC activities in 2005. African diplomats in Addis have
speculated that the PSC may discuss Chad-Sudan tensions,
Ethiopia-Eritrea and Cote d'Ivoire, but Ethiopia's PSC
representative stressed that no specific agenda has been set.
The PSC is scheduled to meet on the future of AMIS on
January 12 in Addis.


8. (SBU) The Khartoum Summit will consider the Draft Common
African Position o the UN Review Process on the Plan of
Action on Small Arms and Light Weapons, developed in Windhoek
in December, 2005. In addition, Nigeria has proposed
consideration of AU member state ratification of the
Pelindaba Treaty, which would establish Africa as a
nuclear-free zone. In the Commission's report to the Summit,
the Chairperson appeals to African countries to ratify the
treaty, noting that while 49 member states have signed the
treaty, only twenty have ratified it. African diplomats
indicate that post-conflict reconstruction in Sudan will be
discussed on the margins of the meeting.

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BUDGET 2006

ADDIS ABAB 00000115 003 OF 004


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9. (SBU) Based on a new system of assessed contributions
developed under South African leadership at the Abuja Summit,
five AU member states (Algeria, Egypt, Libya, Nigeria and
South Africa) will provide 75 percent of the AU's core
budget. According to African diplomats in Addis Ababa, the
core budget, which covers AU operational costs, will likely
be set at the level of 69 million dollars. The voluntary
budget should amount to 60 million dollars. South Africa has
kicked in 11 million dollars and Ethiopia 100,000 dollars to
the voluntary budget, which will support programs across the
four AU pillars: peace and security (54 percent),regional
integration (24.5 percent),institutional transformation (15
percent) and shared vision (6.5 percent). According to the
Commission's report for 2005, the AU received approximately
$36 million dollars of the approximately $60 million dollars
in assessed contributions in 2005. With a history of member
states not offering voluntary contributions, the AU
Commission will rely on its partners to fill the majority of
the programmatic budget. An extraordinary session of the
Executive Council (Foreign Ministers) will meet in Khartoum
to decide on the budget, and will also consider a report on
"alternative sources of financing."


10. (SBU) The AU Commission originally requested over 300
million dollars for 2006. Member states representatives
involved in the extensive budgetary discussions in Addis
Ababa found the AU agenda "too ambitious" and will approve
only a modest increase to the 2005 operational budget of 63
million dollars. North African countries reportedly balked
at approving too high a budget due to the requirement that
they pay 15 percent of it.

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ORGANS AND INSTITUTIONS
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11. (SBU) According to AU Legal Director Ben Kioko, the AU
will move ahead to establish the African Court of Justice and
African Court of Human and Peoples Rights while pursuing
eventual merger of the two courts in parallel. Eleven judges
for each court will be elected at the Summit in Khartoum, but
the eventual merged court may have a total of 15 judges.
Kioko noted that the Eastern Region owes the AU a decision on
the seat of the courts. Mauritius, Tanzania and Sudan are
contenders, but Kioko believes Tanzania may win the regional
vote. Kioko said that the first meeting of the courts will
take place in April 2006. The meeting will decide rules of
procedure and the relationship between the ACJ and Court of
Human and Peoples Rights pending the merger.


12. (SBU) The Khartoum Summit will elect ten new members to
the Peace and Security Council (PSC). Terms are up for
Cameroon, Congo, Kenya, Sudan, Libya, Lesotho, Mozambique,
Ghana, Senegal and Togo. According to Egyptian and Ethiopian
diplomats in Addis Ababa, the Northern Region is pressing for
an extra PSC seat. The Northern Region argues that it only
temporarily ceded a seat to the Western region (which has
four seats to the three of the Southern, Central and Eastern
Regions and two of the Northern Region),while AU officials
say there is no written record indicating a "temporary"
arrangement. Note: AU Commission Chairperson Konare and the
Commissioners' terms are up in July 2007. End note.


13. (SBU) According to AU officials and African diplomats,
differences of opinion on how to proceed with the integration
of NEPAD into the AU Commission have blocked progress on that
ultimately inevitable goal. The AU Summit does plan to
discuss the African Peer Review Mechanism (APRM) and the
completed reports on Ghana and Rwanda.


14. (SBU) Summit agenda items proposed by Libya highlight the
continued debate amongst AU member states on the desired pace
of integration. Some member states, such as Ethiopia, favor
a more measured approach to build up AU Commission capacity
and AU institutions before going to far with continental
integration. Others, such as Libya, advocate accelerated
integration and a higher profile for the AU through
development of an African passport, common currency, and
posts of African ministers of defense, etc.

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ADDIS ABAB 00000115 004 OF 004


HUMAN RIGHTS -- THE HABRE CASE AND ZIMBABWE
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15. (SBU) The AU Commission registered "surprise" at Senegal
President Wade's referral of the Hissene Habre case to the
AU. AU officials comment that the AU is worried that the
Summit context will over-politicize the Habre case and
overshadow legal arguments. AU Commission Chairperson Konare
reportedly sought Assembly Chairman Obasanjo's input on a
number of alternatives to considering the former Chadian
leader's case at the Summit, but the issue remains on the
Summit agenda. AU Legal comments that rules of procedure for
the African Court of Justice and Human and Peoples Rights
will be key to determining if the court(s) could hear cases
like Habre's; and questioned whether the UNSC would allow the
establishment and funding of a court to try Habre.


16. (SBU) The AU's specialized body the African Commission on
Human and Peoples' Rights (ACHPR) issued a declaration in
Banjul in early December, 2005 "condemning" human rights
violations taking place in Zimbabwe. The ACHPR also urged
the AU to renew the mandate of the AU Envoy to Zimbabwe.
While the ACHPR plans to raise the Zimbabwe report at the
Summit, the ACHPR appears to plan to do so in conjunction
with various other reports for 2005. It is uncertain that
the Summit will specifically address Zimbabwe.

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UN REFORM
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17. (SBU) AU Legal Counsel predicts another extraordinary
session after the Khartoum summit to tackle the issue of UN
Reform. The AU had intended to center discussions around the
result of a UN vote on an African-sponsored resolution based
on the "Ezulwini Consensus", but the results of that proposal
are as yet unknown. The AU will likely focus on intensifying
lobbying efforts.



HUDDLESTON