VICE PRESIDENT TO LAUNCH CAMPAIGN ON MAY 29 IN

C O N F I D E N T I A L ABUJA 000873 SIPDIS E.O. 12958: DECL: 04/19/2016 TAGS: PGOV PHUM KDEM ASEC NI SUBJECT: VICE PRESIDENT TO LAUNCH CAMPAIGN ON MAY 29 IN SPITE OF ROADBLOCKS Classified By: Ambassador John Campbell for reasons 1.5 (b & d). ¶1. (C) SUMMARY: Vice President Atiku Abubakar asked to see Ambassador early on April 13 before departing for his Easter break in Adamawa State. At the meeting, Atiku discussed President Obasanjo's and the PDP's efforts to intimidate him, including the protests that had occurred just a few days earlier. He also discussed the prospects for passage of the constitutional amendment allowing Obasanjo to run for a third term, increasing tension in Nigeria and his difficulties with the Presidency. But, Atiku said, he planned to officially launch his presidential campaign on May 29, in spite of any problems he might encounter. He said that "democracy in Nigeria is threatened" and that Nigerians face "tough times ahead." While his request to see the Ambassador was urgent, the topics were much the same as previous meetings and he did not appear to be particularly worried about the political attacks against him from various quarters. End Summary. ¶2. (C) Vice President Atiku Abubakar asked to see Ambassador early on April 13 before departing for his Easter break in Adamawa State. Also scheduled is a board meeting for the ABTI-American University in Yola, which claims the Vice President as a benefactor. At the meeting, Atiku discussed President Obasanjo's and the PDP's efforts to intimidate him, including the protests that had occurred just a few days earlier. Atiku said that the organizer of the protest was "an aide" to PDP Board of Trustees member Bode George and that security had to have given the rented crowd access to the airport. His comment to the press was that the demonstration was "a good thing" and that anti-third term demonstrators should also have the right to protest. ¶3. (C) Turning to the constitutional amendment to enable the President to legally seek a third term in office, Atiku said that "the votes (in the National Assembly) are still not there." He pointed to the effort to impeach Deputy Senate President Ibrahim Mantu, which failed by one vote, as an indication that the required two-thirds majority still had not been assembled. He claimed that money had been changing hands in a "last-ditch" effort to garner support for the amendments and worried that the situation in the National Assembly could become more tense in the coming weeks. ¶4. (C) His concern about tension was not limited to the National Assembly. Atiku said that the antipathy for the third-term agenda was obvious throughout the country and that any "serious politician" should realize that his constituency would not support extension efforts. To back this, he said, he had sent a letter to the President informing him of his intention to contest for the Presidency in the 2007 elections. The letter was polite, respectful and complimentary of the job that Obasanjo had done. Atiku expressed his desire to "continue and expand" this legacy and sought support from the President for his candidacy. Atiku said that he did not expect such support to be forthcoming, but that he wanted the letter to be "professional and complimentary." In spite of the difficulties, Atiku said he planned to officially launch his campaign for the Presidency on May 29, the anniversary of Nigeria's "return to democracy." ¶5. (C) In a change from previous discussions, Atiku talked briefly about his relationship with the President. Previously he maintained that they had a "working" relationship in spite of the breakdown of their personal interaction. Now he described more pointedly the limitations placed on him. He said that "it has been months" since he had called the President and that the President rarely called him for anything other than minor issues. He continued with his concern that "democracy in Nigeria is threatened" by efforts to promote Obasanjo's third term and stifle competition. He pointed out the various public meetings that had been aborted by security officials and lamented the fate of the average Nigerian under the current policies. Atiku said that Nigerians needed a human face on the policies that "I developed" for the President and suggested that the security and political environments ensure that Nigerians face "tough times ahead." ¶6. (C) COMMENT: While his request to see the Ambassador was urgent, the topics were much the same as previous meetings, although with a bit more bitterness in his voice about his relationship with the President. While he faces daily ordeals in his efforts to thwart the third-term agenda and advance his own candidacy, he did not appear to be overly worried about the political attacks against him from various quarters. Still, with Obasanjo's legacy intertwined with his own, it will be difficult for him to overcome his association with the "failed policies" that most of the electorate credits to the Obasanjo administration. CAMPBELL