IGBINEDION PREDICTS YAR'ADUA-IBORI PDP TICKET

C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 02 ABUJA 003191 SIPDIS SIPDIS E.O. 12958: DECL: 12/13/2016 TAGS: PGOV PHUM KDEM NI SUBJECT: IGBINEDION PREDICTS YAR'ADUA-IBORI PDP TICKET REF: A. ABUJA 3030 ¶B. ABUJA 3181 ABUJA 00003191 001.2 OF 002 Classified By: Ambassador John Campbell for reasons 1.4 (b) and (d). ¶1. (C) Summary: Ambassador met with Edo State Governor Lucky Igbinedion December 12 at Governor's request. Igbinedion said that the PDP governors planned to meet the evening of December 12 and would agree to support Katsina Governor Umaru Yar'Adua as the PDP presidential candidate. Delta Governor James Ibori would likely emerge as the vice presidential nominee. Igbinedion explained that the governors would support Yar'Adua, Obasanjo's hand-picked successor, because they were ready to do anything to get Obasanjo out of office. The Governor said that Yar'Adua was a mystery, unknown to his peers, and that he was not a strong candidate for the presidency. Igbinedion implied that the PDP governors are playing a sly game with Obasanjo, giving him what he ostensibly wants in order to achieve their own aim: Obasanjo's removal from power. End Summary. ¶2. (C) Governor Lucky Igbinedion told the Ambassador December 12 that the PDP governors planned to meet later the same evening to agree upon the PDP presidential candidate. Igbinedion was certain that the governors would support Governor Umaru Yar'Adua of Katsina state solely because he has Obasanjo's support. The other governors who had been vying for the PDP presidential nod would bow out, and the governors would draw up a list six names from the South-South and South-East for the vice presidential slot. Igbinedion predicted that the VP list would include the governors of Enugu, Ebonyi, Imo, Cross River, and Delta. (He did not name the sixth VP contender - presumably himself.) Governor Igbinedion said that Delta Governor James Ibori would likely emerge as the vice presidential candidate. ¶3. (C) The PDP governors have decided to support a Yar'Adua-Ibori PDP ticket "in order to get Obasanjo out." However, Igbinedion acknowledged that Yar'Adua was not a very good candidate and is not likely to win. He said that Yar'Adua was "an introvert" and that none of the governors know him. Per Igbinedion, Yar'Adua "never goes out" and his health is poor. The Governor was not sure whether Yar'Adua was moderate towards Christians in Katsina, but could say that "he is not a fanatic." Igbinedion stressed that "the ;idea is to get Obasanjo out at all costs." If supporting Obasanjo's preferred candidate helps spur him to leave office, the governors are willing to do so. Governor Igbinedion confirmed that President Obasanjo has been made Chairman of the PDP for life. He speculated that after his presidential term ends in May, Obasanjo plans to continue to represent Nigeria internationally in his PDP role, stepping in for the ailing Yar'Adua who cannot travel. ¶4. (C) Igbinedion predicted that the PDP convention Saturday could be a slam dunk, with Yar'Adua winning the nomination on the first ballot. After the December 12 meeting, the governors will all be in line behind Yar'Adua, and Igbinedion and others will work the rest of the week to convince the remaining PDP candidates to back out and support Yar'Adua. For the most part, Igbinedion opined, the other candidates are "not serious" anyway. Jerry Gana, he said, has some support, but lacks the political network to get elected. The governor speculated that the opposition to the Yar'Adua PDP ticket is likely to be General Buhari, who "has a lot of popular support in the North," Vice President Atiku, who has a "good machine," and maybe Aliyu Mohammed Gusau, who of all contenders is "probably the most qualified to be President." Igbinedion noted that Atiku seems to be winning his court cases. The Governor was not sure what General Babangida will do. IBB recently bowed out of the PDP race, but "Gusau is his best friend" and he is also close to Yar'Adua. He said however that IBB was "not popular" and would be hard to elect anyway. ¶5. (C) Governor Igbinedion also mentioned that he saw INEC Chairman Maurice Iwu on December 11 to talk about voter registration. Igbinedion said he "is convinced that the direct data capture (DDC) registration system will end rigging." Ambassador expressed concerns about pace of registration and confusion over how INEC proposes to use the 2003 voters roll. He also noted that the 2003 voter's roll was reportedly deeply flawed. Igbinedion agreed that the 2003 list was flawed, but said that using it was better than nothing. He said that "half a loaf is better than none." ABUJA 00003191 002.2 OF 002 The Governor took a long term view of the process, explaining that though voter registration may be problematic for the 2007 election, by 2011 the voters roll would be in good shape and very secure. ¶6. (C) Comment: Governor Igbinedion has changed his position since his prior meeting with Ambassador (ref A) in which he signaled his support for Governor Makarfi for President. The rationale seems to be that the governors are trying to beat Obasanjo by giving him what he ostensibly wants * Yar'Adua as the PDP presidential nominee. But if Yar'Adua is unelectable and PDP loses, then Obasanjo is definitely out of power (both out of office and not able to pull the strings of a hand-picked successor) and the political space will open again for other elites like the governors. This view of the Yar'Adua candidacy contrasts what we heard earlier this week from Aliyu Mohammed (ref B), who predicted that a Yar'Adua ticket would cause chaos and perhaps even a postponed election. Instead, the governors may be calculating that a loser PDP ticket is the way to remove Obasanjo from office once and for all. CAMPBELL