BATTLELINES DRAWN IN FIGHT FOR CONTROL OF PDP

C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 04 ABUJA 003182

SIPDIS

SIPDIS

E.O. 12958: DECL: 12/12/2016
TAGS: PGOV KDEM PHUM NI
SUBJECT: BATTLELINES DRAWN IN FIGHT FOR CONTROL OF PDP

REF: A. ABUJA 2896


B. LAGOS 1220

C. ABUJA 3030

D. LAGOS 1399

Classified By: Ambassador John Campbell for reasons 1.4 (b) and (d)


1. (C) SUMMARY: The PDP convention scheduled for Dec. 16 may
be one of the most significant political gatherings in
Nigeria's post-independence history and its outcome, for
better or worse, could have a significant impact on Nigerian
politics for years to come. With President Obasanjo's
popularity at perhaps its lowest point during his presidency
and the balance of power within the party uncertain, the
convention appears to be a wide open contest. President
Obasanjo appears focused on assuaging his bitter and
unexpected third term defeat by exiting the stage on his
terms. In order to do that, he will attempt to dictate the
outcome of the PDP convention by controlling the process and
hand picking a successor. There will be strong opposition to
this within the PDP, as numerous factions within the party
see this as against their interests. This raises the stakes
for a President who talks incessantly about his legacy and
hopes to anoint a successor who he hopes will provide succor
and a political firewall after he retires. END SUMMARY

PDP: NIGERIA'S BIG TENT, A BRIEF HISTORY
--------------


2. (U) The People's Democratic Party is an amalgam of
interests which traces its formation to a group of northern
leaders who opposed the dictatorship of Sani Abacha. These
opponents dubbed themselves the G-18 and announced their
intention to oppose Abacha's attempt to have himself elected
president. Ironically, many of this group had previously
served as ministers under Abacha, including Jerry Gana,
Abubakar Rimi, Adamu Ciroma, and Solomon Lar. The group also
brought in representatives of the political association of
Shehu Musa Yar'adua, known as the People's Democratic
Movement (PDM),including Atiku Abubukar and northern
intellectuals like Usman Bugaje.


3. (U) The G-18 teamed up with a group of southern
politicians, most prominently Alex Ekueme and Bola Ige, to
form a national organization called the G-34. As the group
grew in prominence it also drew in other "Abacha
politicians," who had actively worked for Abacha, like Tony
Anenih and Jim Nwobodo as well as retired army generals,
including Ibrahim Babangida and Aliyu Mohammed Gusau.


4. (U) The great influx of political opportunists and
hangers-on into the PDP changed the party from one founded on
principled opposition to dictatorship to the political
equivalent of a big tent where all comers, no matter how
disreputable, were welcome. This led many of the Southwestern
politicians who had mobilized their own anti-Abacha
organization known as National Democratic Coalition of
Nigeria (NADECO) to pull out of PDP and found the Alliance
for Democracy (AD). Bola Ige told journalists at the time
that the Yoruba politicians believed the PDP was northern
dominated and they were not ready to share the same political
platform with those "who wined and dined with military
dictators."


5. (C) In the run-up to the 1999 elections, and against great
odds, the military contingent within the PDP put forward
Olusegun Obasanjo, a nominee who they believed would protect
their interests and had the right ethnic profile. This group
is alleged to have forged a deal in which Obasanjo would turn
over power after a single term. After legendary intrigue at
the party convention in Jos, Obasanjo and Atiku emerged as
the party's candidates. The PDP went on to win the 1999 and
2003 presidential elections as well as a solid majority of
the Gubernatorial and National Assembly seats during both
elections. Its dominance in the 2003 elections was so great
that, except for pockets in the North, winning the PDP
primary was tantamount to winning the general election.


6. (C) Currently there are three primary cliques within the
PDP all poised to play a crucial role in deciding who emerges
as the PDP flag bearer. These are the old line
political/military power block; the Obasanjo camp, comprising
business moguls and technocrats who owe their relevance to
the favorable treatment they have received since 1999; and
the sitting governors who control resources and party
structures at the state level. Each has its own interests and
alliances, but survival, not loyalty, remains the name of the
game. As a result, the upcoming convention is likely to see
shifting alliances as each bloc tries to outwit and outplay
the others in this ultimate game of political survival.

INTEREST GROUP 1: THE MILITARY AND OLD LINE POLITICIANS
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7. (C) The historical alliance of the military and their old
line political cronies has, historically, been the most
important in Nigeria. Led by its military members, this group
was responsible for the election of Obasanjo and has played
an important role in PDP politics. Although the base of this
group is centered in the north, members, especially
politicians, hail from all over the country. Prominent among
the military members are retired generals Ibrahim Babangida,
T.Y. Danjuma, Abdulsalami Abubukar, Aliyu Mohammed Gusau, and
Jerry Useni. Prominent among the civilian members are Jerry
Gana, Tony Anenih and Adamu Ciroma.


8. (C) President Obasanjo has worked assiduously since
1999 to reduce their influence within the party as well as
their access to lucrative state directed resources. He
retired many officers who formed a bridge to his
administration. In addition to cutting off members of this
group from the country's famously lucrative patronage
networks, the President created a new patronage network which
is loyal to him. The cumulative affects of these actions led
the military/old line politicians to mobilize actively
against the third term.


9. (C) It is clear that for this bloc the PDP convention is a
vital test of its historical predominance. The strength of
the group rests on their common desire to remove their former
ally, Obasanjo, who has spared no effort in his attempts to
reduce their influence over Nigerian politics and to remake
the party in his own image. But this group is unlikely to
surrender power easily, even after losing in the primaries.
Meanwhile, at the convention it is likely this group will
attempt to forge an alliance with the sitting governors to
try to wrest power from Obasanjo. The major weakness of this
group is that many of its members are opportunistic at heart.
Their individual desire for economic and political rewards
makes them susceptible to inducements, thus weakening this
group's solidarity, especially at crucial moments.

INTEREST GROUP 2: THE RULING CLIQUE: OBASANJO'S CAMP
-------------- --------------


10. (C) This group is led by Obasanjo himself and includes
his kitchen cabinet, members of his economic team, selected
members of the first power bloc and members of the business
community who benefited from Obasanjo's sale of public
companies. Many but not all members of this group are
newcomers, holding political appointments for first time in
their careers. Prominent members of Obasanjo's block of the
party include Aliyu Dangote, chairman and chief executive of
Dangote Conglomerates; Femi Odetola, owner of Zenon Oil; Andy
Uba, Obasanjo' s aide; Nasir el-Rufai, minister of the
Federal Capital Territory; Charles Soludo, Central Bank
Governor; Ndidi Okereke, chairperson of Nigerian Stock
Exchange and chairperson of Obasanjo's Transcorp
conglomerate; Nuhu Riabadu, chairman of EFCC; Oby Ezekwesili,
minister of Education; and Bode George, a retired Air Force
officer and now head of the PDP convention. Recently joining
the group is Governor Umaru Musa Yar'Adua of Katsina State,
who may be the anointed candidate for the Presidency. They
are loyalists, and more than any other group, owe their
prominence and economic well-being to the President. If the
President is unable to control his succession, they are
likely to lose relevance.


11. (C) This group provided the muscle and money for the
Third Term project which was defeated in May 2006. After its
defeat, this group developed "the plan to control Nigeria for
the next forty years," and keep Obasanjo as its leader from
his lifetime position in the ruling party (ref a). One part
of the strategy has involved using the EFCC to cow governors
and other political heavyweights who have the potential to
kick against their convention plans. The EFCC provides an
instrument for members of the inner clique to promote their
own personal agendas, including promoting the candidacy of
El-Rufai or another preferred alternative (ref b).


12. (C) The EFCC's recent actions have been politically
charged. In August 2006, it briefly detained Mohammed
Babangida, the eldest son of ex-president IBB, for allegedly
owning shares in GlobalCom, one of Nigeria's private
communications companies. He was subsequently released
without charges. His arrest was linked to his father's
ambition to contest in 2007. In October 2006, Ribadu appeared
before the National Assembly and said that 31 out of 36
governors were being investigated for corrupt practices. In
December 2006, local media reported the arrest and detentions
of government officials in Enugu, Kaduna and Rivers States.
All three governors (Chimaroke Nnamani, Ahmed Makarfi and
Peter Odili) are contesting the presidential primaries (ref
c).


13. (C) In laying the groundwork for managing the convention,

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President Obasanjo is relying on Bode George, who is the
chairman of the PDP convention committee. George, a retired
Air Force officer, was one of the principal promoters of the
Third Term project. He owes great loyalty to the President
who has apparently saved him from prison after the EFCC
indicted him for mismanagement during his tenure as chairman
of Nigerian Port Authority (NPA).


14. (C) George has been working with the President and other
party insiders to reduce the number of candidates vying for
presidential nomination. There are currently 30 contenders,
but the party has set up a screening committee, which it has
signaled it will use to cut down the number, and choose the
finalists. The screening committee is headed by Bayo Akinola
and includes Joseph Wayas and Evan Enwerem, among others.


15. (C) The committee's squeeze has already resulted in
Ibrahim Babangida quitting the party, after he alleged the
committee was set to disqualify him. Although the committee
is set to begin its work on December 11 and make its decision
public two days later, its utility is clear: giving the
presidential bloc the upper hand at the convention. As a
result, the finalists will all have been sanctioned by the
president as part of his attempt to manage the outcome of the
convention.


16. (C) Yet, despite this careful preparation, a well-placed
source told us that the President would be happy to see the
convention become rancorous if his own candidate (not yet
definitively identified) did not carry the day. The confusion
and bitterness arising from the conduct of the primaries
would overheat the polity. This, coupled with the
incompetence of INEC in the ongoing voter registration, could
provide a pretext for a State of Emergency, or at least a
legally allowable delay in the elections. The major weakness
of this group is that it neither controls the party machinery
in majority of the states nor has grassroots support. It
relies solely on the instruments of the state and funds
itself through the various Ministries under its control.

INTEREST GROUP 3: SITTING GOVERNORS
--------------


17. (C) The PDP governors, the final group within the PDP,
have the resources and motivation to determine the final
outcome of the party's presidential primaries. Many of the
governors have suffered the wrath of the President's anger
and most are leaving office but looking to stay relevant and
out of jail. About 20 have announced their intention to seek
the party's nomination. The Governors have tremendous sway
over state politics and most control party structures at the
state and local levels. This is the same bloc that openly
challenged Obasanjo when they opposed the re-nomination of
President Obasanjo as the party's flag bearer for the 2003
elections. Many have been in disfavor since then and several
have been removed or impeached.


18. (C) Results from recent PDP gubernatorial primaries show
that sitting governors have exercised considerable control
over the PDP nominations of their successors. Thus in Kaduna,
Katsina, Rivers, Taraba, Bauchi, Edo, Jigawa and Enugu, the
sitting governors have turned out to be the dominant
powerbrokers, with or without the support of the presidency.
In states like Benue and Lagos, where there has been direct
competition between the Presidency and the sitting governors,
the competition has ended in a stalemate. In Benue state, the
Presidency wants the position to be rotated to the Edoma
speaking zone, while the sitting governor wants it to remain
in the Tiv speaking zone. In Lagos, the presidency is pushing
the candidacy of the widow of slain candidate Funsho
Williams, while Governor Tinubu wants another candidate. Self
interest of the sitting governors, especially in choosing a
successor who will help protect them once they leave office,
rather than currying favor with the Presidency, seems to be
the strongest incentive for action.


19. (C) Currently, the governors have been consulting and
insisting that the next President of Nigeria must come from
their ranks. A source told us that a list was submitted to
President Obasanjo after the governors had conducted an
in-house selection process. With the EFCC reports dangling
over them, coupled with the fact must of them are vacating
power in 2007, the governors are poised to give Obasanjo's
camp a run for its money (ref d). The primary weakness of
this group is that most are worried about the prospect of the
EFCC tightening its noose on them as their immunity runs out.
The pursuit of their individual ambitions in winning the
party ticket may also weaken their collective resolve to
defeat Obasanjo's group.

OTHER CONSIDERATIONS
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20. (C) The religious and traditional leaders may also have
some influence on the primaries. However, fluidity and
inconsistency among the members this group ensure they will
have, at best, a corollary role. Nonetheless, each of the
three power blocs can be expected to court these leaders in
an effort to win or stalemate the convention. In the North,
some members of this group were already working
behind-the-scenes with similar groups from other regions to
ensure the power is taken back to the North through a
nationally acceptable arrangement. On the other hand,
Obasanjo's camp continues using religious and ethnic leaders
in the South to frustrate any peaceful call for a power shift
to the North and to further fragment the southern regions'
political cohesiveness. While Obasanjo still appears to
personally prefer a Southerner to succeed him, if it must be
the North, "it must be someone Obasanjo can control," one
contact explained.

COMMENT
--------------


21. COMMENT: The situation within the PDP remains opaque.
With the removal of about half of the incumbent Senators and
National Assembly members and the term limits removing most
of the surviving PDP Governors, the Convention provides the
potential for fireworks and unexpected consequences. If the
Governors agree to cooperate among themselves, they could
attract many of the more traditional group of PDP insiders to
their cause. As observed in the efforts to halt the Third
Term Agenda earlier this year, opposition to Obasanjo can
provide a rallying point and bring the disparate interests
together for a common cause. If they are unable to control
the Convention, the stage is set for an unpopular (and
perhaps weak) candidate picked by the President to compete in
the 2007 elections. The opportunity for Obasanjo's opponents
to coalesce and present a consensus candidate with widespread
popularity would be encouraged by this outcome.
CAMPBELL