IRI TEAM SAYS ELECTIONS PREPARATION "DEFICIENT"

C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 02 ABUJA 003154

SIPDIS

SIPDIS

E.O. 12958: DECL: 12/08/2016
TAGS: PGOV KDEM PHUM NI ELECTIONS
SUBJECT: IRI TEAM SAYS ELECTIONS PREPARATION "DEFICIENT"

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Classified By: Political Counselor Russell J. Hanks for Reasons 1.4 (b
and d).


1. (U) Summary: The International Republican Institute sent
a 9-member delegation to Abuja to assess the overall
readiness of Nigeria for the 2007 election. The delegation,
led by former Ambassador Pierre-Richard Prosper, concluded
that "while the government has expressed its intention to
conduct free and fair elections... in many respects (its)
actions, to date, have been deficient." In particular, IRI
expressed "grave concern" about the ongoing voter
registration exercise, noting in their press statement that
only 3.5 million of a potential 60 million eligible voters
have been registered, causing INEC to lose credibility with
the public. The team also expressed concerns about lack of
civic education materials and electoral violence. End
Summary.


2. (U) The IRI delegation, comprised of Ambassador
Pierre-Richard Prosper (former U.S. Ambassador-at-Large for
War Crimes Issues),Honorable Harry Johnston II (former U.S.
Congressman),Councillor Frances Johnson-Morris (Liberia's
Minister of Justice),Dr. Peter J. Pham (Professor, James
Madison University),Manuel Pinto (former Ugandan Member of
Parliament),and Benjamin Ulenga (Namibian Member of
Parliament),was in Abuja November 27 to December 1. IRI
staff, including Vice President of Programs Elizabeth Dugan,
also participated in the assessment mission. The team met
with political party leaders, government officials, civil
society, the media, and representatives of the international
community. They were not able to secure meetings with
President Obasanjo or the People's Democratic Party (PDP).
The delegation focused on observing voter registration, party
campaign activities, and the government's efforts to ensure
an open and transparent election.


3. (U) At a press conference December 1, the IRI delegation
shared their preliminary conclusions with the public. Their
overall assessment was quite negative. The team concluded
that "while the government has expressed its intention to
conduct free and fair elections... in many respects (its)
actions, to date, have been deficient." In particular, IRI
expressed "grave concern" about the ongoing voter
registration exercise, noting in their press statement that
only 3.5 million of a potential 60 million eligible voters
have been registered, causing INEC to lose credibility with
the public. The team also expressed concerns about lack of
civic education materials and electoral violence. Though INEC
has informed voters about the need to register, "they have
been given almost no information about when and where to
actually go about doing so." The IRI delegation saw no
evidence of civic education for the voter registration
exercise during their week on the ground. Finally, the
delegation worried about the potential for electoral
violence. They explained that they had heard numerous
reports of intra-party violence and stockpiling of weapons.
IRI concluded that it was likely that this violence would
continue as the inter-party contests heat up.


4. (C) In a private meeting with the Embassy and USAID on
December 1, the IRI team was more blunt in expressing their
worries about the state of elections preparation in Nigeria.
All team members questioned whether the will to conduct
credible elections in 2007 exists in Nigeria. The IRI team
said that INEC's failures have created a climate that the
voters feel is "ripe for rigging." The team was astounded
that only one of all the Nigerians with whom they met all
week had successfully registered to vote. Their Nigeran
interlocutors were educated and politically savvy, yet
shockingly they still could not manage to register. Members
of the delegation also expressed concern that INEC Chairman
Maurice Iwu had "changed his story 100%" from his meeting
with the IRI team to his appearance at the National Assembly
later in the week. (Note: at the NASS, Iwu testified that
INEC could use the 2003 voter's roll to supplement the 2007
registrations.) One delegate observed that there is a huge
lack of popular confidence in the idea of re-adopting the
2003 voter's roll, "if one even exists." The IRI team was
extremely skeptical about the ongoing electronic voter
registration exercise. One assessment team member said that
there is no way for INEC to pull off the voter registration
exercise without some "really creative bookkeeping."
Professor Pham calculated that INEC would have to register
one voter every minute and 15 seconds (working 8 hours a day,
5 days a week) between now and February 14 just to register

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75% of the eligible electorate. Frances Johnson-Morris, the
Liberian Justice Minister, said she was "shocked" by
Nigeria's lack of elections preparation. In her view,
Liberia had done far better with limited resources and under
more difficult conditions.


5. (C) Comment: IRI fielded a credible and well-informed
team that included both American and African experts. The
team was able to make some astute observations about the
state of elections preparation after only one week on the
ground. Embassy looks forward to their final report, which
will be released in a few weeks and will include
recommendations for what the GON can and should do to keep
the election train from running completely off the rails.
CAMPBELL