IRI TEAM SAYS ELECTIONS PREPARATION "DEFICIENT"

C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 02 ABUJA 003154 SIPDIS SIPDIS E.O. 12958: DECL: 12/08/2016 TAGS: PGOV KDEM PHUM NI ELECTIONS SUBJECT: IRI TEAM SAYS ELECTIONS PREPARATION "DEFICIENT" ABUJA 00003154 001.2 OF 002 Classified By: Political Counselor Russell J. Hanks for Reasons 1.4 (b and d). ¶1. (U) Summary: The International Republican Institute sent a 9-member delegation to Abuja to assess the overall readiness of Nigeria for the 2007 election. The delegation, led by former Ambassador Pierre-Richard Prosper, concluded that "while the government has expressed its intention to conduct free and fair elections... in many respects (its) actions, to date, have been deficient." In particular, IRI expressed "grave concern" about the ongoing voter registration exercise, noting in their press statement that only 3.5 million of a potential 60 million eligible voters have been registered, causing INEC to lose credibility with the public. The team also expressed concerns about lack of civic education materials and electoral violence. End Summary. ¶2. (U) The IRI delegation, comprised of Ambassador Pierre-Richard Prosper (former U.S. Ambassador-at-Large for War Crimes Issues),Honorable Harry Johnston II (former U.S. Congressman),Councillor Frances Johnson-Morris (Liberia's Minister of Justice),Dr. Peter J. Pham (Professor, James Madison University),Manuel Pinto (former Ugandan Member of Parliament),and Benjamin Ulenga (Namibian Member of Parliament),was in Abuja November 27 to December 1. IRI staff, including Vice President of Programs Elizabeth Dugan, also participated in the assessment mission. The team met with political party leaders, government officials, civil society, the media, and representatives of the international community. They were not able to secure meetings with President Obasanjo or the People's Democratic Party (PDP). The delegation focused on observing voter registration, party campaign activities, and the government's efforts to ensure an open and transparent election. ¶3. (U) At a press conference December 1, the IRI delegation shared their preliminary conclusions with the public. Their overall assessment was quite negative. The team concluded that "while the government has expressed its intention to conduct free and fair elections... in many respects (its) actions, to date, have been deficient." In particular, IRI expressed "grave concern" about the ongoing voter registration exercise, noting in their press statement that only 3.5 million of a potential 60 million eligible voters have been registered, causing INEC to lose credibility with the public. The team also expressed concerns about lack of civic education materials and electoral violence. Though INEC has informed voters about the need to register, "they have been given almost no information about when and where to actually go about doing so." The IRI delegation saw no evidence of civic education for the voter registration exercise during their week on the ground. Finally, the delegation worried about the potential for electoral violence. They explained that they had heard numerous reports of intra-party violence and stockpiling of weapons. IRI concluded that it was likely that this violence would continue as the inter-party contests heat up. ¶4. (C) In a private meeting with the Embassy and USAID on December 1, the IRI team was more blunt in expressing their worries about the state of elections preparation in Nigeria. All team members questioned whether the will to conduct credible elections in 2007 exists in Nigeria. The IRI team said that INEC's failures have created a climate that the voters feel is "ripe for rigging." The team was astounded that only one of all the Nigerians with whom they met all week had successfully registered to vote. Their Nigeran interlocutors were educated and politically savvy, yet shockingly they still could not manage to register. Members of the delegation also expressed concern that INEC Chairman Maurice Iwu had "changed his story 100%" from his meeting with the IRI team to his appearance at the National Assembly later in the week. (Note: at the NASS, Iwu testified that INEC could use the 2003 voter's roll to supplement the 2007 registrations.) One delegate observed that there is a huge lack of popular confidence in the idea of re-adopting the 2003 voter's roll, "if one even exists." The IRI team was extremely skeptical about the ongoing electronic voter registration exercise. One assessment team member said that there is no way for INEC to pull off the voter registration exercise without some "really creative bookkeeping." Professor Pham calculated that INEC would have to register one voter every minute and 15 seconds (working 8 hours a day, 5 days a week) between now and February 14 just to register ABUJA 00003154 002.2 OF 002 75% of the eligible electorate. Frances Johnson-Morris, the Liberian Justice Minister, said she was "shocked" by Nigeria's lack of elections preparation. In her view, Liberia had done far better with limited resources and under more difficult conditions. ¶5. (C) Comment: IRI fielded a credible and well-informed team that included both American and African experts. The team was able to make some astute observations about the state of elections preparation after only one week on the ground. Embassy looks forward to their final report, which will be released in a few weeks and will include recommendations for what the GON can and should do to keep the election train from running completely off the rails. CAMPBELL