COL. UMAR WARNS THAT OBASANJO MUST GO BY MAY 29

C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 02 ABUJA 003122

SIPDIS

SIPDIS

E.O. 12958: DECL: 12/04/2016
TAGS: PGOV PREL KDEM NI
SUBJECT: COL. UMAR WARNS THAT OBASANJO MUST GO BY MAY 29


Classified By: Political Counselor Russell J. Hanks for reasons 1.5 (b
& d).


1. (C) SUMMARY: Former Military Governor of Kaduna State
Col. Abubakar Umar (rtd.),the Chairman of the Movement for
Unity and Progress (MUP) told PolCouns recently that MUP and
its partners would ensure that President Olusegun Obasanjo
would leave office on May 29 regardless of Obasanjo's plans.
He complained of the level of corruption throughout the
Federal and State governments during Obasanjo's tenure and
attacked the EFCC for being politically motivated in its
haphazard attack on corruption. Umar is using his platform
to pressure the National Assembly and the Judiciary to probe
and punish corruption at the highest levels of the Nigerian
government and may have found his calling as a
pro-democracy/transparency lobbyist among some
representatives from the northern reaches of Nigeria. END
SUMMARY.


2. (C) Former Military Governor of Kaduna State Col.
Abubakar Umar (rtd.),the Chairman of the Movement for Unity
and Progress (MUP) told PolCouns recently that MUP and its
partners would ensure that President Olusegun Obasanjo would
leave office on May 29 regardless of Obasanjo's plans. He
said that Obasanjo, in his view one of the most corrupt
leaders in Nigeria's history, was intent on manipulating the
system because he feared investigation and incarceration
after leaving office. "His attempt to amend the Constitution
was a desperate attempt to cling to power for the remainder
of his life," he said.


3. (U) Umar said that Obasanjo's tenure had been marked by
massive government revenues and an "unprecedented"
destitution among Nigeria's citizens. Given that, he
claimed, Obasanjo's successor would at least have to ask
Obasanjo about the missing revenues, the President's "inept
handling" of social issues and his many legal transgressions.


4. (C) Umar pointed to an escalation of discontent and
violence throughout the country and a growing bitterness and
animosity towards politicians, especially those seen as
supporting the President's attempt to extend his tenure. He
said that Obasanjo had overseen an outbreak of hate and
antagonism among Nigerians and had actively fostered ethnic,
religious and sectional divides among the polity. Pointing
to the crises that continue in the Niger Delta, Umar said
that poor governance, misuse of revenues and the "clearly
rigged" elections that foisted unpopular (and sometimes
violent) politicians on the states would continue. "We have
no hope of state intervention, so it will be up to the
citizens of the area to demand credible candidates and ensure
the region's safety," he claimed.


5. (SBU) Umar speculated that the most "vicious attacks" by
the Presidency were aimed at those with a chance of actually
winning an election. He questioned the integrity of the
Economic and Financial Crimes Commission (EFCC),pointing out
that the EFCC still declines to examine the books of the
Ministry of Petroleum in spite of many apparent questionably
activities in the Minsitry. He also pointed to the bribery
allegations that hit the National Assembly when "millions of
Naira" changed hands on May 10 and 11 in order to swing votes
in favor of the Constitutional amendment allowing Obasanjo a
third term. "Even with witnesses, vehicle IDs and the
apparent transfer of cash into the cars of dozens of members
of the National Assembly, (EFCC Chairman) Ribadu has said the
EFCC does not have enough information to investigate," Umar
lamented.


6. (U) Umar also highlighted the questionable transactions
relating to Transcorp, including the transfer of national
assets to the company in spite of the fact that Transcorp
continued to violate the rules of the bid process and failed
to meet the financial requirements used to screen other
bidders. Even worse, he said, was the reported 600 million
shares of Transcorp held by the President and members of his
family. "How could he know that he held shares and that he
sold 200 million of them from his so-called blind trust,"
Umar pointed out, musing whether perhaps it was Nigerians
that were blind instead.


7. (U) In pushing for the President to leave office, Umar
said that the National Assembly and the Judiciary needed to
apply their powers resolutely to salvage Nigeria's democracy.
He claimed that MUP, in cooperation with other civil society

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organizations and political parties, was prepared to "ensure
a handover on May 29, 2007, regardless of the the
machinations of Obasanjo and the PDP regime." He said he had
been urging the National Assembly to probe the corrupt
activities of both the President and the Vice President and
to "mete out appropriate punishment" for both of them.


8. (C) COMMENT: Umar is well reknowned as a social critic
and gained considerable public support during the Babangida
regime when he resigned from the Military rather than
cooperate with the annulment of the June 12 elections. While
he is known as a speaker, his efforts have generally been
limited to criticism rather than action. Still, as a lobbyist
among the corridors of power, he may yet find his calling as
he searches for a solution to Nigeria's political morass.
CAMPBELL