VICE PRESIDENT DECLARES HIS PRESIDENTIAL

C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 02 ABUJA 003114

SIPDIS

SIPDIS

E.O. 12958: DECL: 12/04/2016
TAGS: PGOV KDEM PHUM NI
SUBJECT: VICE PRESIDENT DECLARES HIS PRESIDENTIAL
INTENTIONS, BUT NOT HIS PARTY

REF: A. ABUJA 3005


B. 2415

Classified By: Political Counselor Russell Hanks for reasons 1.4 (b) an
d (d).


1. (U) SUMMARY: After more than a year of uncertainty,
Vice President Atiku Abubakar declared himself a candidate
for president, saying that he would follow the policies of
President Olusegun Obasanajo and continue economic reforms
and make the fight against corruption a priority. With a
crowd of notable Action Congress (AC) opposition figures
prominent in attendance, Vice President Atiku laid out the
general themes for campaign. He did not, however, reveal much
about his strategy or his intended party affiliation as he
campaigns to become Nigeria's next president.


DRAMA PRECEDES, FOLLOWS ATIKU ANNOUNCEMENT
--------------


2. (U) After three years of an increasingly strained
relationship between the President and the Vice President,
Atiku's announcement on November 25 was a long awaited
declaration that he is still active and in the hunt for the
Presidency. His declaration was delayed for more than a year
because of political uncertainty starting with efforts to
extend the President Obasanjo's tenure. In addition, as
Atiku's political disfavor became public, he had problems
getting re-registered in the PDP, was indicted by a special
panel led by the Attorney General, and finally, he was
suspended by the ruling People's Democratic Party (PDP) in
September, 2006. These events had succeeded in derailing, if
at least temporarily, the momentum for his candidacy.


3. (C) Atiku outlined a platform in which he promised to
continue the economic reforms of President Obasanjo,
prioritize the problems in the Niger Delta, focus on
infrastructure development, expand education opportunities,
and continue the fight against corruption. The announcement
sets the stage for more maneuvering in advance of the PDP
convention in mid-December.


4. (C) With the PDP still the party that controls the
electoral process in Nigeria, Atiku's status in the PDP
matters, both to him and his rivals and competitors. As just
one indicator of the drama surrounding Atiku position in the
party and the upcoming convention, Atiku made headlines prior
to his announcement when he moved out of his official
residence saying that he was concerned about his security.
Although the GON responded and said his concerns were
dishonest, Atiku seemed to be shaken in a subsequent meeting
with the Ambassador (ref A). "Sometimes you measure sucess
not by what was accomplished, but by what obstacles were
overcome," Dr. Usman Bugaje, a close advisor of the vice
president told Poloff.


5. (C) In addition Atiku is likely to continue to keep his
opponents guessing about his game plan. Bugaje told Poloff
that Atiku will keep his options open, but that he was likely
to change his party affiliation to the Action Congress (AC),
after sitting out the PDP convention. He would count on the
courts to confirm his eligibility, Bugaje said.


LEGAL STATUS UNCERTAIN
--------------


6. (U) Despite Atiku's affirmative statement about his
vision and intentions, the legal status of his candidacy is
uncertain and his intended party affiliation a closely
guarded secret. Atiku, according the PDP party hierarchy, is
ineligible for the party's ticket, because he was indicted
(ref B). As a result, the party has suspended him, thus
technically making him ineligible for the party convention.
Atiku has filed a court challenge to the indictment, but the
case is still pending. On December 2, the Abuja Court of
Appeal rejected a request from the PDP to stop the case from
going forward and a decision is anticipated on December 8.


7. (U) The refusal of the Appeal Court to stop the process
appears to have provided the Vice President some legal
momentum. In another related case, a Lagos court ruled that
the administrative panel responsible for the indictment of
Otumba Fasawe, along with the Vice President, was improperly
constituted. It concluded that the Economic and Financial
Crimes Commission did not have the power to submit its report
to the President, and consequently, the President did not
have the power to receive the report as prima facie evidence
to enact a panel. Although technically the ruling was in
answer to the Vice President's suit, his camp claimed

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victory. The President's spokesman, on the other hand, was
widely quoted in the press as saying that the case had no
relevance to the Vice President, and that he would have to
win his own case to be eligible.


8. (C) Bugaje, said that the ruling is clear evidence that
the case against the Vice President lacks merit and undercuts
the President's argument that the ruling voiding Fasawe's
indictment is irrelevant. The Vice President's strategy is to
continue to use the courts and hope for a favorable outcome.
In the meantime, the Vice President will file additional
briefs, using the Lagos court decision to bolster his
original submission, Bugaje said.

CAMPBELL