NIGERIA: CIVIL SOCIETY ON ELECTION SCENARIOS

C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 02 ABUJA 003032 SIPDIS SIPDIS DEPT FOR AF/W SILSKI AND SANNEH, INR/AA NSC FOR CHUDSON E.O. 12958: DECL: 11/19/2016 TAGS: PGOV KDEM NI ELECTIONS SUBJECT: NIGERIA: CIVIL SOCIETY ON ELECTION SCENARIOS Classified By: Ambassador John Campbell for Reasons 1.4 (b) and (d). ¶1. (C) SUMMARY. At a November 20 luncheon for civil society elections-related organizations, participants discussed possible scenarios for Nigeria's presidential transition and the status of elections preparations. Participants maintained Obasanjo hopes to continue his rule of Nigeria -- either through an extension of his term or de facto from his position as head of the PDP party. Should an Obasanjo-favored candidate win through a flawed and corrupt election, participants predicted a speedy end to the new administration and a popular outcry for a new round of elections. Participants pointed to recent violence within PDP party congresses as an indication of a larger trend of violence to be expected in the upcoming elections. They requested the Ambassador publicly support passage of the Freedom of Information Act bill by President Obasanjo, noting the necessity for accountability within the GON. Participants described recent encounters with INEC Chairman Maurice Iwu as hostile and maintained that the dismal performance of the registration process is both purposeful and malicious. END SUMMARY. ¶2. (SBU) On November 20, the Ambassador hosted a luncheon for USAID civil society partners involved with the upcoming April 2007 elections. Participants included representatives of PACT Nigeria, Zero Corruption Coalition, Civil Society Legislative Advocacy Center, Alliance for Credible Elections, Media Rights Agenda, and Women, Trafficking and Child Labor Eradication Foundation. USAID Director, PolOff and Staff Aide also attended. POSSIBLE SUCCESSION SCENARIOS -------------- ¶3. (C) Civil society participants were in agreement that Obasanjo would prefer to stay in power beyond the scheduled May handover and the extension of his tenure was the first scenario discussed. Emma Ezeazu of the Alliance for Credible Elections noted that INEC Chairman Maurice Iwu could use unrest in the Delta or tensions in several of the states with recent impeachment processes as a reason to call for a postponement of the April elections based on the 2006 Elections Law. Barring extension of Obasanjo's tenure, participants felt Obasanjo's chosen successor would likely win through a flawed and corrupt procedure. (They maintained that Obasanjo is so widely unpopular that a majority will automatically vote against his chosen successor.) Obasanjo, they maintained, would continue to rule de facto through his position as head of the PDP. Should Obasanjo's favored candidate win, Ezeazu predicted the administration would not last long, with the Nigerian people demanding another election. A final scenario, which Ezeazu put forward as a possible way forward for Nigeria, is the emergence of a coalition opposition candidate. Ezeazu and Auwul Ibrahim Musa of Civil Society Legislative Advocacy Center maintained this would have to be an as yet undeclared candidate. For personality and prestige reasons, Vice President Atiku, General Babangida, General Buhari, and others would not drop out for one among them to run as the opposition candidate. A new opposition candidate (presumably one without strong ties to any of the current candidates) would have to emerge upon which everyone could agree. POTENTIAL FOR VIOLENCE -------------- ¶4. (C) Most participants said they expect violence to continue, noting that incidents of violence in several recent ward and state PDP Congresses are indicative of the trend. Ezeazu was singularly optimistic and maintained violence will not continue through the elections process. Rather, he believes Nigerians will express their frustrations at election shortcomings through a call for another election. (Note: He did not elaborate on how the public might call for such an election without inciting violence. End Note.) ACCOUNTABILITY IS THE NAME OF THE GAME -------------- ¶5. (C) The discussion turned several times to the issue of accountability. Among this group working to improve voter education, enhance legislative involvement and educate media the necessity to insert accountability into the system at all levels is a key to strengthening Nigerian democracy. Elected officials, both in the Executive and Legislative branches and ABUJA 00003032 002 OF 002 at all levels, need to be held accountable to the Nigerian people. In addition, participants stressed the need for Executive branch accountability to the Judiciary. The federal government, they maintained, can no longer ignore the decisions of the Judiciary. Ezeazu indicated the Supreme Court decision on the constitutionality of the impeachment of Oyo Governor Ladoje, expected November 21, would be a watershed. He maintained that consensus is growing against the Executive branch's blatant flaunting of the constitution and that he sees the Oyo decision as a turning point. Ekanem Bassey of PACT Nigeria (and a member of the Nigerian Bar Association) said she expects the NBA to continue to increase its public role in calling for accountability and citing the unconstitutional methods of the Executive. ¶6. (C) Participants noted the importance of the Freedom of Information Act (FOIA) bill, passed by both the House and the Senate and currently being reconciled. They voiced concern that the bill would be "pocket vetoed" by President Obasanjo. Musa said Obasanjo became angry in a recent meeting when asked about the bill. Despite inclusion of the FOIA bill in the National Economic Empowerment and Development Strategy (NEEDS),Musa maintained Obasanjo will not support FOIA because it institutionalizes transparency and removes Presidential authority over the decision of what information to release. Participants asked the Ambassador to support publicly the FOIA bill. The Ambassador said he would look for opportunities publicly to comment on the significant, positive impact of FOIA on U.S. government transparency and accountability. INEC AND VOTER REGISTRATION -- IWU INSULAR AND COMBATIVE -------------- -------------- ¶7. (C) Participants believe the failure of the electronic registration process is both purposeful and malicious on the part of INEC Chairman Maurice Iwu. They maintain that Iwu is becoming more insular and even combative in his dealings with civil society. PACT's Bossey said his hostility is the result of civil society calling him on his public lies. She pointed to early statements that INEC had sent upwards of 10,000 registration machines to the registration sites and that Iwu had become combative when civil society organizations challenged him. Bossey and Musa pointed to Iwu's repeated public statements that the registration process is on track. They noted that even by the most gracious calculations less than one twentieth of voters has been registered in a month. ¶8. (SBU) COMMENT: Among the eight Nigerian participants in the lunch, none had been able successfully to register to vote. Several commented they had been unable to obtain information on registration sites and two maintained they had physically searched for sites with no success. Ezeazu reported that the Alliance for Credible Elections obtained a schedule of registration sites from the Abuja INEC office and was announcing the open sites daily on an Abuja radio station. The radio station received calls daily, however, from listeners who reported that the information was incorrect or the sites were not open. One participant said she saw an electronic registration machine near her house the week before but did not have time to register that day. When she returned the next day the site was closed and no one could tell her where to go to register. Participants said NGO colleagues have reported that registration sites in some rural areas are up to one and a half hours travel from some villages. Individuals must vote where they register; however, travel is restricted during the elections for security reasons. ¶9. (SBU) COMMENT CONTINUED: These representatives of civil society are disaffected from INEC and highly suspicious of the Obasanjo administration. Their attitude is broadly representative of civil organizations involved with election mobilization and preparation. END COMMENT. CAMPBELL