GOVERNORS AGREE PDP CONVENTION CRITICAL BUT

C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 02 ABUJA 003030 SIPDIS SIPDIS E.O. 12958: DECL: 11/22/2016 TAGS: PGOV KDEM PHUM NI SUBJECT: GOVERNORS AGREE PDP CONVENTION CRITICAL BUT WIDE-OPEN Classified By: Ambassador John Campbell for reasons 1.4 (b) and (d). ¶1. (C) Summary: In a series of meetings with the Ambassador on November 21, three ruling party governors representing geographically distinct states agreed that the upcoming PDP political convention is a wide-open contest that could ultimately determine the direction of the party and the nation. The Govenor of Kaduna State, Ahmed Makarfi, with the endorsement of Governor Lucky Igbinedion of Edo, made the case to the Ambassador that given the precarious nature of Nigeria today, the best Presidential candidate would be a Northerner who had wide-spread support of the Christian community, especially in the North, but generally, throughout the country. Governor Makarfi went on to make the case that he was the candidate who would best fit the profile. End Summary. GOVERNOR OF KADUNA MAKES THE CASE FOR HIS CANDIDACY -------------- -------------- ¶2. (C) In a meeting scheduled to be between the Ambassador and Gov. Igbinedion, Gov. Makarfi made a surprise appearance. It quickly became apparent, however, that the main purpose of the meeting was for Igbinedion, a South South governor, to give his Northern colleague, Makarfi, a platform to talk up his candidacy. Igbinedion and Makarfi initiated the discussion by making the case that the PDP had an opportunity to stay in power but that the choice of its candidate must be carefully made and fit a specific profile to be credible. Both agreed that the convention was a critical moment and that for PDP to remain credible it must choose a candidate whose profile matched the expectations of the nation, otherwise it would throw the party, and by extension the country, into a crisis. Makarfi said that there were four camps within the PDP each pushing competing agendas and candidates and it was unclear which camp would prevail. ¶3. (C) Gov. Igbinedion made the case that "given Nigeria's recent history," and the election of Obasanjo that the precarious nature of Nigerian politics required the next president come from the North. Makarfi agreed and said that the ideal profile of a Northern presidential candidate would include a record of working with and having the support of the significant Christian minority in the north, and be matched with a credible Southern candidate. He said the support of the northern Christian minority, which he claimed made up to 40% of the population in the region, was a litmus test for tolerance and coalition building. ¶4. (C) Makarfi went on to tout his sucess in Kaduna state in managing the fractious relationship between Christians and Muslims and his efforts to be seen as an inclusive governor, he claimed, had earned him the nickname "John" from militant Muslims, who he said did not think he was "Muslim enough." Makarfi pointed to numerous friends in the Christian community in other parts of the country.The endorsement of Igbinedion was but one example of his track record, he said. ¶5. (C) Igbinedion and Makarfi also agreed that the Niger Delta was Nigeria's most pressing problem, although they disagreed on how to approach the problem. Markafi said his strategy would be to provide quick impact projects and focus on labor intensive infrastructure like roads which provide a framework for development. Stay focused on one or two priorities and "give them something they could see," he said. Igbinedion, the scion of a famous business family, said the he would focus on providing a steady energy supply to the region in order to promote small and medium size businesses and manufacturing. THE GOVERNOR'S VIEW FROM ONDO STATE -------------- ¶6. (C) Governor Agagu said that voter registration in Ondo "started slow but was gradually picking up." He explained that his state originally received only 13 of the 280 machines promised by INEC to register its approximately 3 million inhabitants. The governor estimated that Ondo now had 70-80 voter registration machines, but said that with only 19 days to go for voter registration, "there is no way the exercise will finish on time." He explained that he and other governors planned to approach President Obasanjo and request a 40 day extension of the registration period at a meeting of the PDP National Executive Committee (NEC) on November 21. He expected such an extension would be granted, and noted that a similar extension occurred in 2003. ABUJA 00003030 002 OF 002 ¶7. (C) Agagu, who is running for re-election himself, believes that there are many presidential aspirants within the PDP, but "few with any real chance." The governor explained that President Obasanjo is not yet backing any candidate, despite claims by some to be the chosen one. Though Obasanjo is not encouraging any candidacy, Agagu believes that he has clearly signaled his disapproval of some, most notably Vice President Atiku Abubakar. Governor Agagu anticipated that the PDP candidate would have to come from either the North or the South-South and said that the PDP NEC would probably establish a short list of preferred candidates, 2 from the North and 2 from the South-South, and then the party primary process would decide from amongst those four. ¶8. (C) Gov. Agagu said that whether the PDP chooses a candidate from the North or the South-South, the party leadership needs to sign and publicize a "charter of national unity" promising that power will rotate next to the region not selected. According to Governor Agagu, a public promise about which region is due for its turn at the Presidency would be better for national unity. He explained that the current speculation about promises allegedly made in 1999 about power shifting to the North were not helpful, especially as the South-South also has a strong argument for its turn at the "zoning" of the Presidency. ¶9. Comment: (C) Perhaps demonstrating an element of hubris, all three governors believe the upcoming PDP convention will be a critical event in Nigeria's political history. Although there was not a complete consensus among the three PDP insiders on the exact profile on what the winning candidate should look like, there was a consensus that if the PDP did not get it right, disaster was a very likely biproduct and that would affect both the party and the nation. CAMPBELL