VICE PRESIDENT ON SECURITY AND OTHER MATTERS

S E C R E T SECTION 01 OF 02 ABUJA 003025 SIPDIS SIPDIS E.O. 12958: DECL: 11/20/2016 TAGS: PGOV ASEC PREL NI SUBJECT: VICE PRESIDENT ON SECURITY AND OTHER MATTERS Classified By: Ambassador John Campbell for reasons 1.5 (B & D). ¶1. (C) SUMMARY: Vice President Atiku Abubakar told Ambassador on November 20 that he moved out of his official residence over the weekend due to a specific security threat. He then commented that President Obasanjo's concern for his international reputation was "gone," and that the confusion engendered by the ongoing primary process in the ruling People's Democratic Party (PDP) could lead to a national crisis. He also commented on the security situation in the Delta, saying that it was far too dangerous there and that "no one is in control." Atiku appeared shaken and perhaps frightened by his experience over the weekend and was nothing like the confident man that has talked to us in the recent past. END SUMMARY. ¶2. (S) Vice President Atiku Abubakar, accompanied by the Governor of Adamawa State Boni Haruna, told Ambassador on November 20 that he moved out of his official residence over the weekend because of a security threat. He said he had received security information from sources in the United Kingdom that indicated there would be a threat to his life over the weekend. At the same time, a director of the State Security Services (SSS) told one of his aides that "something is up" over the weekend with no further information. ¶3. (S) Atiku said that a special team of SSS operatives intended to attack his official residence on Saturday and capture him. The plan, according to Atiku, was then to proceed to the gates of the Presidential compound where an exchange of gunfire would ensue. At that point, the attackers were to withdraw, leaving the President to discover that the Vice President had been killed in the exchange and announce that a "coup had been narrowly averted." According to Atiku, the operation would be carried out by the SSS because the President was afraid that the military might "break the rules" and continue action rather than withdrawing as planned. ¶4. (C) Atiku consulted his own security at his official residence, who advised him to lay low for a couple of days to throw off the timing of the action. When asked about reports of gunfire within the Presidential compound over the weekend, Atiku denied that there had been any. ¶5. (C) Atiku turned to President Obasanjo, commenting that he had no idea why the President would go to such lengths to attack him. "The man is very vindictive," Atiku said. He said that President Obasanjo remained intent on staying in office and opined that Obasanjo's concern for his international reputation was "gone." ¶6. (C) Atiku said that the confusion engendered by the ongoing primary process in the ruling People's Democratic Party (PDP) could lead to a national crisis. He pointed to lists of designated winners that were neither nominated nor selected at the primary meetings. "Many of the PDP leaders are fed up with the process" and bitter about results that could ensure that they could not return to elective office. The situation is so bad, he claimed, that the PDP convention in December could even finish with no candidate nominated for President. ¶7. (C) He dismissed General Babangida's (IBB) chances in the PDP, saying that IBB controlled one state delegation and the President was likely to control the majority of the remainder. He also dismissed the apparent new anointed candidate, Katsina State Governor Umaru Yar'Adua (septel) as a "lightweight." He pointed to Yar'Adua's alleged illness (including cirrhosis of the liver and the failure of one kidney) as the reason that the Governor rarely attended meetings outside Katsina and left much of the day-to-day running of the state to his cabinet. Atiku also claimed that Delta State Governor James Ibori had agreed to finance Yar'Adua's campaign as part of a deal with President Obasanjo to ensure that Ibori was not jailed for corruption after finishing his second term as Governor. ¶8. (C) Atiku commented on the security situation in the Delta, saying that it was far too dangerous there and that "no one is in control." He said that he had moved his oil business from Port Harcourt to Lagos and had "evacuated" his two sons from the region. He pointed to the Governors in the Delta, mentioning Odili and former Governor Alamiesegha, as the backers of most of the militants in the area. ABUJA 00003025 002 OF 002 ¶9. (C) COMMENT: Atiku appeared shaken and perhaps frightened by his experience over the weekend and was nothing like the confident man that has talked to the Embassy in the recent past. While the tale he related is incredible and troubling, it is not outside the realm of possibility for Nigerian politics. Conflicting reports of gunfire within the Presidential compound at about the same time, increased security around the compound and the first reaction of the Presidency and subsequent denials create an atmosphere of suspicion around the happenings. Whether the underlying story is true or false, the fact that either the President or the Vice President would go to such lengths is a sign that Nigerian politics is becoming more fractious and may be moving away from what has been a predictable, if sometimes messy, pattern since the Civil War. CAMPBELL