VICE PRESIDENT ON SECURITY AND OTHER MATTERS

S E C R E T SECTION 01 OF 02 ABUJA 003025

SIPDIS

SIPDIS

E.O. 12958: DECL: 11/20/2016
TAGS: PGOV ASEC PREL NI
SUBJECT: VICE PRESIDENT ON SECURITY AND OTHER MATTERS


Classified By: Ambassador John Campbell for reasons 1.5 (B & D).


1. (C) SUMMARY: Vice President Atiku Abubakar told
Ambassador on November 20 that he moved out of his official
residence over the weekend due to a specific security threat.
He then commented that President Obasanjo's concern for his
international reputation was "gone," and that the confusion
engendered by the ongoing primary process in the ruling
People's Democratic Party (PDP) could lead to a national
crisis. He also commented on the security situation in the
Delta, saying that it was far too dangerous there and that
"no one is in control." Atiku appeared shaken and perhaps
frightened by his experience over the weekend and was nothing
like the confident man that has talked to us in the recent
past. END SUMMARY.


2. (S) Vice President Atiku Abubakar, accompanied by the
Governor of Adamawa State Boni Haruna, told Ambassador on
November 20 that he moved out of his official residence over
the weekend because of a security threat. He said he had
received security information from sources in the United
Kingdom that indicated there would be a threat to his life
over the weekend. At the same time, a director of the State
Security Services (SSS) told one of his aides that "something
is up" over the weekend with no further information.


3. (S) Atiku said that a special team of SSS operatives
intended to attack his official residence on Saturday and
capture him. The plan, according to Atiku, was then to
proceed to the gates of the Presidential compound where an
exchange of gunfire would ensue. At that point, the
attackers were to withdraw, leaving the President to discover
that the Vice President had been killed in the exchange and
announce that a "coup had been narrowly averted." According
to Atiku, the operation would be carried out by the SSS
because the President was afraid that the military might
"break the rules" and continue action rather than withdrawing
as planned.


4. (C) Atiku consulted his own security at his official
residence, who advised him to lay low for a couple of days to
throw off the timing of the action. When asked about reports
of gunfire within the Presidential compound over the weekend,
Atiku denied that there had been any.


5. (C) Atiku turned to President Obasanjo, commenting that
he had no idea why the President would go to such lengths to
attack him. "The man is very vindictive," Atiku said. He
said that President Obasanjo remained intent on staying in
office and opined that Obasanjo's concern for his
international reputation was "gone."


6. (C) Atiku said that the confusion engendered by the
ongoing primary process in the ruling People's Democratic
Party (PDP) could lead to a national crisis. He pointed to
lists of designated winners that were neither nominated nor
selected at the primary meetings. "Many of the PDP leaders
are fed up with the process" and bitter about results that
could ensure that they could not return to elective office.
The situation is so bad, he claimed, that the PDP convention
in December could even finish with no candidate nominated for
President.


7. (C) He dismissed General Babangida's (IBB) chances in
the PDP, saying that IBB controlled one state delegation and
the President was likely to control the majority of the
remainder. He also dismissed the apparent new anointed
candidate, Katsina State Governor Umaru Yar'Adua (septel) as
a "lightweight." He pointed to Yar'Adua's alleged illness
(including cirrhosis of the liver and the failure of one
kidney) as the reason that the Governor rarely attended
meetings outside Katsina and left much of the day-to-day
running of the state to his cabinet. Atiku also claimed that
Delta State Governor James Ibori had agreed to finance
Yar'Adua's campaign as part of a deal with President Obasanjo
to ensure that Ibori was not jailed for corruption after
finishing his second term as Governor.


8. (C) Atiku commented on the security situation in the
Delta, saying that it was far too dangerous there and that
"no one is in control." He said that he had moved his oil
business from Port Harcourt to Lagos and had "evacuated" his
two sons from the region. He pointed to the Governors in the
Delta, mentioning Odili and former Governor Alamiesegha, as
the backers of most of the militants in the area.


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9. (C) COMMENT: Atiku appeared shaken and perhaps
frightened by his experience over the weekend and was nothing
like the confident man that has talked to the Embassy in the
recent past. While the tale he related is incredible and
troubling, it is not outside the realm of possibility for
Nigerian politics. Conflicting reports of gunfire within the
Presidential compound at about the same time, increased
security around the compound and the first reaction of the
Presidency and subsequent denials create an atmosphere of
suspicion around the happenings. Whether the underlying
story is true or false, the fact that either the President or
the Vice President would go to such lengths is a sign that
Nigerian politics is becoming more fractious and may be
moving away from what has been a predictable, if sometimes
messy, pattern since the Civil War.
CAMPBELL