VOTER REGISTRATION: DISCUSSION OF "PLAN B" EMERGES

C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 02 ABUJA 002933 SIPDIS SIPDIS E.O. 12958: DECL: 11/08/2016 TAGS: PGOV KDEM PHUM NI SUBJECT: VOTER REGISTRATION: DISCUSSION OF "PLAN B" EMERGES REF: A. ABUJA 2890 ¶B. ABUJA 2842 Classified By: Acting Political Counselor Heather Merritt for reasons 1 .4 (b) and (d) ¶1. (C) SUMMARY: The realization that INEC's mismanagement of voter registration could have a major impact on the elections in 2007 has led the Nigerian National Assembly (NASS) to play a hands-on oversight role in ensuring the election commission is held accountable. A November 7 hearing on INEC's failing voter registration exercise led the NASS to issue an ultimatum to INEC, despite promises by the election commission that it can keep the process on track with its current plan. Despite the increasingly proactive stance by the NASS and growing concern by people around the country about INEC's registration debacle, there are no easy or quick remedies. The alternate strategies under consideration all have major technical and logistical complications which are also likely to result in delays. In addition, the INEC chairman has made contradictory statements about whether he plans to comply with the National Assembly ultimatum to implement a "Plan B" voter's registration strategy. End Summary. -------------- NATIONAL ASSEMBLY MEMBERS DETAIL COMPLAINTS -------------- ¶2. (U) A November 7 hearing called by the House subcommittee on INEC but chaired by the Speaker of the House and attended by over 200 members was a result of a consensus that the ongoing registration exercise is a debacle. In order to reinforce the consensus, the Speaker of the House, Aminu Bello Masari, asked Members from each state to relate their experiences. All reported a lack of registration machines, poor organization and a lack of publicity (ref A). For example, the representative from Bauchi said that there were only 7 registration machines in his state which were working and that all were in the state capital. The Rivers representative said his state had only 3 working machines. In Kwara state only one was working and in Yola only three were working, representatives said. ¶3. (U) Representatives who spoke at the four hour hearing also noted that many poll workers were not able to operate the registration machines and some batteries were faulty. In their remarks, many Representatives attributed the failure to a lack of sincerity on the part of the Federal Government and noted that despite the best hopes for an improved process, this year's exercise was clearly not an improvement over ¶2003. Representatives estimated that less than one percent of each state's voters had thus far been registered, a figure which INEC Chairman Maurice Iwu did not challenge. -------------- INEC DEFENDS ITSELF AT THE NATIONAL ASSEMBLY -------------- ¶4. (U) Much like he has in the past, in his NASS testimony Chairman Iwu tried to paint a rosy picture of the registration process, saying that despite the slow start, more machines would arrive by November 15 (ref B). Once additional machines arrive, Iwu claimed that the process would proceed smoothly. He blamed the overall delays in the registration process on late passage of the Electoral Reform Bill, which led to late procurement of the machines. He also again defended INEC's choice of the direct data capture machines as a necessary upgrade that would prevent abuses of the past. ¶5. (U) Under pressure from the Members, Iwu conceded that with so much at stake he needed not only to produce results but to begin the process of contingency planning. He noted that the ongoing exercise included the completion of a backup paper registration form, which would form the basis for a manual register should one be needed. -------------- IWU OUTLINES PLANS B AND C -------------- ¶6. (C) Although he was not expansive in public on the details of alternate plans, in private Iwu was more forthcoming. In a meeting on November 6 with the newly arrived IFES consultant on data management, INEC Chairman Iwu ABUJA 00002933 002 OF 002 shared additional details about his thinking. He said the direct data capture system was good because it provided a backup, as a paper form was used in preparing the data input. This, he said, provided the core of a "Plan B" in case the machines had further problems or there were additional delays in getting the machines on the ground. The paper backup would essentially provide a manual registration if plan B was needed, Iwu said. ¶7. (C) He also elaborated on a possible "plan C" when he discussed with the visitors the 2003 voter's register, which remains in INEC's computer system. In outlining potential help the data management consultant could provide, Iwu asked how the 37 sub-data bases (one for each state and the FCT) could be integrated and managed, and assigned the consultant to work on developing a workable and integrated database using the 2003 data. He also assigned the consultant to begin work on mapping areas which were not serviced in 2003 and other areas which have changed territorial administration and also developing a platform that would support continuous registration in the 774 local government areas. -------------- IWU AGREES BEFORE HE DISAGREES -------------- ¶8. (U) The overall tone of the National Assembly hearing was one of skepticism. Numerous Members noted that they needed proof of voter registration to become candidates and with party congresses looming, self interest compelled forceful action. As a result, the House mandated the chairman of the INEC committee to monitor the arrival and distribution of the 33,00 registration machines that Chairman Iwu promised would arrive by November 15. The House further resolved that if by November 21 no progress had been made with registration, they would impose an alternative plan to begin a completely manual registration process or revise the 2003 voter's register. The committee is expected to reconvene on November 21 to confirm progress. ¶9. (U) One day after appearing contrite before the NASS, Iwu, at a press conference to release the election timetable, told journalists that INEC will not return to manual registration. He was quoted as saying: "Nothing will be more injurious to our collective desire for a better future for our electoral process than to allow ourselves to be pushed back to the old manual system with all its noted imperfections." ¶10. (U) Iwu's defiant stand on a "plan B" for the failing voter's registration exercise is in direct contradiction to his position just a day earlier. It appears to set up a showdown between INEC and the National Assembly over the voter's registration process, especially if the 33,000 machines are not in the country, distributed and working by next week. -------------- COMMENT -------------- ¶11. (C) INEC's voter registration program is a well documented failure. Positively, there is now a clear consensus that there is problem and, thanks to NASS oversight, public debate about the political implications and the steps necessary to resolve the problem. There is uncertainty, however, about which alternate plan would be the most efficient and least disruptive in trying to meet current deadlines. Public discussion of the failing registration exercise has finally led to discussion of contingency plans. But neither of the alternatives under consideration, a new manual register or a reworked 2003 register, are likely to be easier or faster. Further complicating the situation, INEC Chairman Maurice Iwu continues to give out conflicting signals about the status of election preparations and strategies needed to ensure a credible voter's registration process. CAMPBELL