SENATOR SARAKI ON TERRORISM, DELTA, 2007 ELECTIONS

C O N F I D E N T I A L ABUJA 002889 SIPDIS SIPDIS E.O. 12958: DECL: 11/03/2016 TAGS: PGOV PINR PTER PBTS NI SUBJECT: SENATOR SARAKI ON TERRORISM, DELTA, 2007 ELECTIONS Classified By: Ambassador John Campbell for reasons 1.4 (b) and (d). ¶1. (C) SUMMARY: PolOff and visiting SFRC staff member paid an October 31 courtesy call on Senator Gbemi Saraki-Fowora at her Abuja residence. Saraki insisted that the threat of terrorism in Northern Nigeria loomed ominously, particularly given Nigeria's porous borders and the extreme poverty in much of the North. Moreover, she advanced a military solution as the "only possible" alternative to resolving the Delta crisis, solicited increased USG democracy and security assistance, and warned that the 2007 elections would be "acceptable, though dirty." END SUMMARY. ¶2. (C) Senate Foreign Relations Committee (SFRC) Staffer Jay Branegan explained that the SFRC endeavored to investigate U.S. security assistance, military-military relations, and host government cooperation in pursuing activities related to the Global War on Terror (GWOT) during its tour of Nigeria and other non-combat African countries. Senator Saraki conceded that while the USG's efforts have played a demonstrable role in curbing terrorist activity in Nigeria, in her view the threat remains both critical and imminent, due in large measure to permeable, poorly-controlled borders with Niger and Chad. Saraki solicited USG assistance in border patrol, claiming that Nigerian military lacks requisite prowess and equipment to delimit the infiltration of foreign militants, incendiary, seditious preachers, and weaponry into Nigeria's most vulnerable Northern areas. She contended that rampant poverty, desperation, and opportunity fuel terrorism and that "Nigeria is as much a target of terrorism as the U.S." ¶3. (C) While acknowledging Nigerian military incompetence and obsolescence in the Delta, Saraki proffered that "only a military solution" can resolve the Delta crisis, adding that "might makes right" particularly in the face of "terrorist brutality and greed." ¶4. (C) Senator Saraki referred to the U.S. as Nigeria's "Big Brother" who "needs to step in and ensure we're on track." When asked to elaborate, she admitted that democratization "needs nudging" in Nigeria and though fully expecting "acceptable, though dirty" elections to take place in 2007, Saraki admitted that "anything's possible" hinting that Obasanjo may yet have a few "tricks up his sleeve." As one of the few PDP senators to oppose Obasanjo's Third Term bid, amidst immense party pressure and recurrent fear of reprisal, Senator Saraki voiced appreciation for the Mission's stance and public declaration against the Third Term. She also noted that the clamor for Sharia, like in the 1999 elections, is likely to figure "prominently" in the 2007 elections, especially since it may confer legitimacy upon and garner support for an ostensibly alienated Northern elite. ¶5. (C) COMMENT: Senator Saraki hails from a wealthy, powerful, and politically-savvy Nigerian family in the Yoruba Muslim-majority Kwara State. Articulate and candid, Senator Saraki maintains a close connection to the U.S. since her two children, aged 11 and 15, attend a Massachusetts boarding school. Post believes that Saraki somewhat overstated the potential for terrorist activity in Northern Nigeria, probably to encourage increased foreign assistance for Nigeria, but we will continue to monitor the situation in the North and provide timely reporting on extremism. We will also continue to seek out opportunities to liaise and strengthen our relationship with the Saraki dynasty, including the Senator's brother, Kwara State Governor Dr. Abubakar Bukola Saraki. END COMMENT. CAMPBELL