ATIKU STILL UPBEAT, BUT MORE SUBDUED

C O N F I D E N T I A L ABUJA 002684 SIPDIS SIPDIS E.O. 12958: DECL: 09/29/2016 TAGS: PGOV PINR KDEM ELECTIONS NI SUBJECT: ATIKU STILL UPBEAT, BUT MORE SUBDUED REF: A. A) ABUJA 2293 ¶B. B) ABUJA 2465 Classified By: Political Counselor Russell J. Hanks for Reasons 1.4 (b and d) ¶1. (C) SUMMARY. Vice President Atiku Abubakar met with the Ambassador and PolCouns on September 29, 2006. While his general mood remains upbeat, he was more subdued than in his last two meetings with the ambassador (reftels). He continues to use the courts to fight the corruption charges against him, and is also fighting aggressively in the political arena. The vice president is concerned that elections will not be held in 2007, and he views voter registration as the key to successful elections. He also tried to distance himself from charges of corruption against him. END SUMMARY. ¶2. (C) The vice president continues to fight the corruption charges against him in the courts. He said he has spent over five million U.S. dollars on legal fees in the last few months. Additionally, he said he will bring a court case to challenge his 3 month suspension from the People's Democratic Party (PDP). According to Atiku, he will do this in order to support the rule of law in Nigeria. ¶3. (C) In addition to challenging charges in the courts, the vice president is fighting on the political front. He said that he is regularly meeting with political contacts until 4 a.m., and that the previous night he had met with 15 governors until that hour. (Note: His apparently more subdued mood might be explained by physical exhaustion. End note.) Of the 15 governors, 10 were from the PDP, 4 were from the All Nigeria People's Party (ANPP),and 1 was from the AD. In Atiku's view, President Obasanjo is increasingly unpopular and Atiku is gaining support. This is particularly true in Northern, Muslim circles. The vice president said that the PDP leadership resident in the United States was leaving the party to support him, and that there will be a transformation of Nigerian politics in the next two to three months that is "unlike anything seen before in Nigeria." His direct implication was that there might be a turn to violence and that the North was becoming increasingly combative. ¶4. (C) The vice president is increasingly worried whether there will be elections in 2007. He views voter registration as the central challenge, and says there is no reason the voter rolls from 2003 could not be updated. He has spoken to the Speaker of the House and the President of the Senate and believes the National Assembly is preparing to take action if the Independent National Electoral Commission (INEC) fails to register voters in an acceptable manner. ¶5. (C) Unlike his previous meeting with the ambassador, the vice president sought to distance himself from allegations of corruption. Specifically, he discussed the charges surrounding U.S. Representative William Jefferson, and called Jefferson a "tenacious hustler." The vice president said he "ran away from" Jefferson. ¶6. (C) COMMENT. The vice president is becoming increasingly isolated within the Obasanjo administration. While he is still attending meetings of the federal executive council, he is often left to sit by himself while the other members exchanges pleasantries with one another. Combined with the obvious stress and extraordinarily late hours, it is reasonable that the vice president is more subdued. However, he continues to believe that he will be able to defeat the charges against him and be allowed to stand for the presidency. While he is increasingly pessimistic about the elections, he still believes he will win if elections are held. END COMMENT. FUREY