POLITICAL VIOLENCE CONTINUES TO ESCALATE

C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 03 ABUJA 002555 SIPDIS SIPDIS E.O. 12958: DECL: 09/27/2016 TAGS: PGOV KDEM NI ELECTIONS SUBJECT: POLITICAL VIOLENCE CONTINUES TO ESCALATE Classified By: Political Counselor Russell Hanks for Reasons 1.4 (b and d) ¶1. (C) SUMMARY: Palpable tension has gripped Nigeria over the recent spate of political murders. The trend is not new. High profile killings have been a hallmark of Nigerian politics for years, though the rate clearly is accelerating as election season approaches. In late July, Funsho Williams, a leading Lagos State governorship aspirant in the ruling Peoples Democratic Party (PDP) was brutally killed at his residence in Lagos. In August, a gubernatorial candidate in Ekiti was murdered. Before those, other assassinations and violent events claimed the lives of prominent Nigerian citizens. Nigerian security agents have not yet arrested the culprits nor prosecuted the sponsors of these dastardly acts. END SUMMARY. WHO ARE THE SPONSORS? -------------- ¶2. (C) Over the last year, calculated political violence across Nigeria has claimed many lives. While the sponsors are unknown, accusing fingers in the press and the public point to politicians * especially in the ruling PDP * who are desperate to cling to power by whatever means necessary. Many of the politicians who now are maneuvering for their party tickets believe that the upcoming elections will be a mere formality. The inability of the government to decisively halt political violence has raised suspicions among Nigerians that the sponsors of the violence are either in government or are protected by those in power. ¶3. (C) The case of Funsho Williams is typical. No possessions of value were missing after his home was broken in to. Two police officers assigned to guard his home failed to report for work the night of the crime. The killing was particularly violent. While murder during the commission of a common crime is not unusual in Nigeria, those deaths are almost always by a gunshot or two. In the case of Williams and other murders of politicians, the deaths are typically more violent and slow. Perpetrators are seldom arrested. These differences point to murder done at the behest of political enemies rather than as random criminal acts. WHY THE KILLINGS? -------------- ¶4. (C) There are several possible motives for the political killings. Political office is extremely lucrative in Nigeria. Politicians desperately want to control federal, state and local governments because of the volume of money each tier of government controls. The increasing price of oil has increased federal revenues four-fold since 1999. Politicians fiercely struggle for a piece of the action. The few principled politicians are sidelined or intimidated. Those who insist on due process have an unfortunate habit of being permanently silenced. The key to office is often to win the PDP party nomination leading to fierce intra-party competition. The PDP bigwigs often boast publicly that the PDP will "win" elections in 2007 "no matter what happens," including in states which it does not control currently such as Lagos and Kano. Taking into account the massive electoral frauds and flagrant use of government instruments for political advantage during 2003 elections, politicians are more concerned about being the party flag bearer than seeking electoral approval from voters. ¶5. (C) Political violence is not limited to the ruling party. Candidates from several major parties have died, and each of the major political parties in Nigeria shares some common flaws. Parties are often cults of personality built around a popular candidate rather than platforms to express issues or ideas. There is no orderly process for selecting candidates. With six months to go before the 2007 elections, none of the parties has selected candidates, either for president or lower office, and political conventions have yet to be scheduled. In this fluid political environment, some turn to violence to improve their chances of capturing a nomination. While the situation within political parties is unstable, the relationship among them is unclear. More than 40 parties are registered with the Independent National Electoral Commission (INEC). A targeted act of violence might well dissuade some of them from participating at all in the 2007 elections. RECENT EVENTS -------------- ¶6. (U) On September 20, 2006, Muslim youths in Dutse, Jigawa State rioted, allegedly in protest of an amorous relationship between a police officer and a local woman. An unknown ABUJA 00002555 002 OF 003 number of homes and business were destroyed in the riot and reports indicate that the governor of the state was threatened with lynching by irate youths and had to be escorted from the capital. ¶7. (U) Disputed reports indicate that on September 10 past Minister of Aviation and current candidate for the governorship of Bauchi State Isa Yuguda was the subject of an assassination attempt. Allegedly, he was attacked by thugs sent by current Bauchi State Governor Mu'azu, a member of the PDP. The attack was said to have taken place in Abuja when a group of armed men stormed Yuguda's home. He survived the attack. ¶8. (U) In mid-September, the Kano governor's motorcade was stoned by youth upset with him for allegedly turning away from the ANPP to cooperate with President Obasanjo and the ruling PDP. The incident took place after the governor returned from an overseas trip with the President. The incident was not widely reported in the media. ¶9. (U) Ayodeji Daramola, PDP candidate for the governorship of Ekiti State, was murdered August 14 by unknown assassins. He had been publicly threatened by Ekiti Governor Fayose several times prior to the killing. No visible progress has been made in the investigation, and speculation is widespread that the killing was politically motivated. ¶10. (U) On July 28, 2006, Lagos State PDP gubernatorial aspirant Funsho Williams was bound, gagged and stabbed to death in his residence in Lagos in the wee hours of the morning. Although some arrests were made and officials of the Scotland Yard were invited to examine the crime scene, no one has been arraigned in court. There is little public confidence that those who have been arrested actually carried out the murders and there has been no mention of arrests of those who ordered the deed done. The Williams case does stand out, however, in having foreign agents called in to assist in the investigation. ¶11. (U) Plateau State gubernatorial aspirant Jesse Aruku of the newly registered Advanced Congress of Democrats (ACD) was abducted late at night on June 30 or July 1 and killed on July 2. Police say his death was an assassination and not a robbery, but no arrests are known to have been made in the case. ¶12. (C) On June 22, 2006, a bomb exploded at the personal residence of Rivers State Commissioner of Finance Kenneth Kobani in Port Harcourt, Rivers State. The bomb damaged cars and parts of the building. No group claimed responsibility for this action, and police have not announced any suspects in the case. Also in Port Harcourt on June 6, 2006, heavily armed thugs attacked the private residence of Nigeria's Deputy Speaker of the House of Representatives Austin Opara. Though Opara was not home when the armed men came at around two in the morning, many believe Opara was targeted for assassination by his political opponents. Explosives thrown at the house inflicted serious damage to the building, cars and nearby properties. The city has become a haven for armed militias, robbers and political thugs. ¶13. (U) On May 8, 2006 former Adamawa State governor and chieftain of newly registered Advanced Congress of Democrats (ACD) Alhaji Saleh Michika was attacked at night at his residence in Yola, Adamawa State by armed men. Though Michika escaped unharmed, one of his security guards was killed by the invaders. No arrests or prosecutions are expected. ¶14. (U) On May 7, 2006, Adeyemi Kuforuji, Speaker of the Lagos State House of Assembly escaped death after gunmen attacked his vehicle at Aiye Bus Stop, Isolo, Lagos State. His car was riddled with bullets. ¶15. (U) April 29, 2006 Senator Omar Umar Hambagda, a pro-Third Term senator, was attacked by angry youths in Biu, Borno State. He took refuge at the palace of Emir of Biu, where he reportedly sneaked out through the backdoor after disguising himself as a woman. The youths reportedly were unhappy with the senator for misrepresenting their views during the Third Term debate. ¶16. (U) April 24, 2006 two PDP members died and several party supporters sustained injuries during a clash between two factions at Imeko/Afon Local Government of Ogun State. ¶17. (U) April 24, 2006 President Obasanjo's convoy was attacked by angry anti-Third Term youths in Kano. They threw stones at the convoy, and while no members of the ABUJA 00002555 003 OF 003 presidential party were injured, 3 motorcycle drivers were hurt when the presidential convoy attempted to flee the scene. Dozens of nearby cars were vandalized. Buses emblazoned with the banner of the All Nigeria Peoples Party (ANPP) and carrying a large number of youths had been seen in the area. ¶18. (U) On April 20, 2006 at least fifteen people lost their lives while hundreds were rendered homeless after clashes in Okehi Local Government of Kogi State. The conflict is part of an ongoing power tussle between the Deputy Governor of the State, Phillips Salawu, and the Ohinoyi of Ebira, Alhaji Ado Ibrahim, whose appointment was recently quashed by a court. ¶19. (U) On April 6, 2006 a combined team of police and agents of State Security Service (SSS) prevented a meeting of notable Nigerians opposed to the Third Term that included Vice President Atiku, former military leader Muhammadu Buhari and national assembly members. Honorable Member Francis Amadiegwu of Imo State was beaten up by the police. He was partially paralyzed and hospitalized at the National Hospital in Abuja. ¶20. (U) March 20, 2006 Alhaji Lawal Kaita, a founding member of the PDP and now a chieftain of the opposition Advanced Congress of Democrats (ACD) was arrested by the agents of SSS at his residence in Katsina and was forcibly transported to Abuja where he was detained for 24 hours. No reason was given by the government for this action. ¶21. (U) On February 2, 2006 Hajia Naja'atu Bala Mohammed, a strong opposition politician, narrowly escaped death after suspected hired killers had attacked her vehicle in Utako District of Abuja. Her attackers had been tailing her car from Kaduna, but they did not realize Mrs. Mohammed had been dropped off at a clinic a few minutes before the attack. Her husband, Saleh Haliru was shot by the assassins. The assassins' car, however, had an accident while trying to escape from the scene. ¶22. (U) On January 14, 2006 Hajia Sa'adatu Rimi, wife of former Kano State Governor Abubakar Rimi, was murdered in her sleep by unknown persons in her residence in Kano. Rimi was known to be a strong opponent of a third term for the President. No prosecution has started in this case. A FEW ARRESTS AND NO PROSECUTIONS -------------- ¶23. (C) Given the lack of arrests and prosecutions, those connected with these cases go about their business with impunity. In August, Nigeria's police chief, Sunday Ehindero expressed alarm at the rate at which politicians arm and sponsor violent gangs in Nigeria, using underemployed youths. He did not name those politicians, however, nor did he say what action the police would take against them. ¶24. (C) COMMENT: The political murders and the government's unwillingness or inability to address them promotes a culture of fear where it is difficult for either politicians or ordinary Nigerians to challenge the established order. Electoral violence is another large challenge Nigeria must face to organize credible elections in 2007. END COMMENT. CAMPBELL