NIGERIA LURCHES TOWARD VOTER REGISTRATION

C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 02 ABUJA 002521 SIPDIS SIPDIS E.O. 12958: DECL: 09/22/2016 TAGS: PGOV KDEM PHUM NI ELECTIONS SUBJECT: NIGERIA LURCHES TOWARD VOTER REGISTRATION REF: A. ABUJA 2337 AND PREVIOUS ¶B. ABUJA 1243 ABUJA 00002521 001.2 OF 002 Classified By: Ambassador John Campbell for Reasons 1.4 (b) and (d) ¶1. (C) Summary: INEC continues to prepare for voter registration using handheld computers for direct data capture beginning October 7. However, there are only 150 registration machines in country, there are software problems with two vendors' equipment, and training on use of the machines is in early stages. USG election partners predict that registration will begin October 7, but slowly and chaotically. The campaign environment is still marred by violence and confusion, and there has been no visible progress in the investigations of recent high-profile political murders. IRI is organizing a high-level delegation to conduct a pre-election assessment visit in November 2006, following on to the very successful NDI-led assessment mission in May 2006. End Summary. ¶2. (C) On September 21, Ambassador, DCM, Political and Economic officers, and USAID Director and officers met with representatives of that National Democratic Institute (NDI), International Republican Institute (IRI),and IFES to discuss the campaign environment and Nigeria's progress in preparing for the 2007 elections. -------------- Voter Registration -------------- ¶3. (C) IFES confirmed that contracts were awarded within the last two weeks for the voter registration machines and that 150 demonstration models are in country (50 from each vendor). However, only one model, that supplied by the South African vendor, is working well. IFES reports that the Canadian and Malaysian models have a variety of technical problems. IFES is concerned about the apparent immaturity of both hardware and software on these models as well as compatibility issues given the short period to the start of voter registration. INEC claims it will have 33,000 machines in stock by the end of September, but IFES notes that this would include some from the Canadian and Malaysian vendors that require technical fixes. One of the vendors also told IFES that all responsibility for the registration operation and its logistics (including data transport and security, storage of sensitive equipment and materials such as ink, stamps, forms) rests with INEC, as the vendors were not 
contracted to provide any of these services. ¶4. (C) IFES is most concerned that INEC appears to have no "operational plan" for voter registration. All planning and training appears to be ad hoc and uncoordinated. Training on the registration equipment has started in Abuja but has been delayed in many of the states. Procedural training has not begun at all, as the final version of the training manual has not yet been approved. IFES has been working closely with the Voter Registration and Training Departments to re-write the procedural manual and bring it up to international standards. The completed manual is now awaiting INEC's approval. Once approved, IFES will print 20,000 copies of the manual for trainings at the state level. ¶5. (C) The election partners agreed that it will be critically important to educate voters about what to expect with the new registration process. One important step may be to encourage voters to "check the list" to be sure that data errors are corrected on the final voters roll. At present, INEC has not announced plans for a complaints/amendment period in which voters could scrutinize the roll for errors. -------------- Parties/Campaign Activities -------------- ¶6. (C) NDI noted that the campaign environment is still very confused and that violence continues. There is no clarity on likely candidates for the ever-expanding myriad of parties, and even the PDP seems to be splitting north and south. The SSS and EFCC seem to be playing increasingly political roles. The public is also confused by the "dueling impeachment" threats by the President and Vice President. There was some concern that the ongoing Obasanjo-Atiku feud could grind the political system to a halt in the same way that the third term debate did earlier this year. There has been no visible progress in the recent murders of gubernatorial candidates in Plateau, Lagos, and Ekiti states. Less prominent violence ABUJA 00002521 002.2 OF 002 also continues. IRI has heard reports of so-called "ritual killings" for political gain in Maiduguri and of a mutilated body found near Abuja. IRI also noted that their staff left the recent ANPP convention because the atmosphere was "too tense" and that the launch two weeks ago of the new Action Congress (AC) mega-party was also tense. -------------- Preparations for Second Assessment team -------------- ¶8. (C) IRI also reported on preparations for a high-level assessment team to visit Nigeria in late November and follow on to the May 2006 assessment led by NDI (ref B). The embassy elections team strongly suggested to IRI that its delegation include a few members of the May assessment team to promote continuity and credibility. The group also noted that the May group was strengthened by the inclusion of several senior African statesmen. IRI agreed to work closely with NDI on selecting credible, senior Africans to be part of the November team. Given the time frame, the November visit is likely to concentrate on the voter registration effort (due to wrap up by mid-December) as well as the overall campaign environment. -------------- Comment -------------- ¶9. (C) The mood of the election team was clearly less optimistic than at our previous meeting. The overall sense was that INEC is not ready to conduct credible voter registration and that political violence continues to mar the campaign environment. We believe that voter registration will begin as scheduled October 7, but in a limited and chaotic fashion. We remain concerned that registration will not be completed by the statutory deadline in December and it seems likely that poor training and other logistical hurdles will lead to errors in the voters roll due to rushed and sloppy registration efforts. CAMPBELL